Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
659 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Aviation...
/12z tafs/
MVFR conds prevail over a good portion of North Texas with visible
generally around 5sm. There are some areas of dense fog primarily
in the lower valleys but this should stay out of the major
airports through middle morning. Will prevail VFR conds in the
metroplex...although an amend or two may be needed if visible drops
further than anticipated.
A complex of thunderstorms continues to move southeast across
western Oklahoma. These storms are likely to weaken in intensity
as they approach so no mention of precipitation in the current forecast.
South winds around 10kt expected through the period.
Dunn
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
the only major forecasting challenge with this package will be
patchy fog in the eastern zones this morning and thunderstorm
chances today.
Light wind and damp ground across East Texas and the eastern
portions of North Texas will result in patchy fog through middle
morning today. It appears that most of the dense fog should be in
East Texas but a few North Texas locations may briefly fall to 1/2
mile visibility. By 11 am...any fog that did develop will have
dissipated.
A complex of storms...currently across western Oklahoma and the
Panhandle...will continue moving southeast through the early
morning hours. Cloud tops in the southern portion of the complex
have been warming over the past couple of hours and this trend
will likely continue. The hrrr seems to have the most reasonable
solution of all models based on radar trends over the last few
hours so will follow it fairly closely. Therefore...expect most of
the West Texas activity to dissipate before reaching the
northwest zones around middle morning...but will leave 20 probability of precipitation in to
account for any shower or storm that manages to hold together. By
this afternoon...a few showers or storms may develop across the
region as temperatures warm into the 90s and some left over
boundaries provide a focus for lift. Any storms that do develop
should be disorganized pulse storms due to the weak sheared and
weak flow environment expected.
Any showers or storms that do develop this afternoon will dissipate with
the loss of surface heating and increasing large scale subsidence
from a building upper level ridge. The upper ridge will become the
dominant weather feature across the region Thursday through early
next week. The good news is that the ridge will never become
extremely strong and as a result afternoon high temperatures
should not be too much warmer than seasonal normals. Expect
afternoon highs through early next week generally in the lower and
middle 90s and lows mostly in the 70s.
79
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
Denton, Texas 94 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 91 69 92 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
Dallas, Texas 94 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 92 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
Temple, Texas 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 93 70 94 70 96 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
