marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 804 am EDT Sat 4 Jul 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Update: the cold fnt has passed E of the nt1 and nt2 ofshr areas this mrng...and was lctd over Bermuda at 11z. W to SW winds of 10 to 15 kt were rptd over the ofshr areas N of Cape Hatteras at 11z...with mainly vrbl winds to 10 kt obsvd in the wtrs S of Cape Hatteras.

06z GFS/00z GFS/00z ECMWF are in vry gud agreemnt over the cstl and ofshr wtrs thru the fcst prd...altho the ECMWF winds are about 10 kt lower than the GFS winds over the cntrl nt2 wtrs for sun nite and Mon. 00z Gem is close to the ECMWF/GFS into Mon...but looks too stg and deep with the low passing S of Nova Scotia during the late Mon into Tue timeframe. 00z UKMET is too slow and weak with the low movg off the mid Atlc CST sun nite into Mon. Will be favoring the 06z GFS for the upcoming ofshr wtrs fcst package. Since the 00z GFS was favored for the last package...am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.

Seas...06z wavewatch iii mdl sea hts look reasonable thru the fcst prd...and the guidance will be followed fairly closely.

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The qkscat pass from around 2300z indicated winds of 15 kt or less over the nt2 waters. Over the nt2 waters...winds were mostly 10 to 15 kt. There were some stronger winds of 30 to 35 kt over the ern portion of the Balt canyon to Hague waters associated with convection which were also rain flagged. The 00z opc sfc analysis indicated low pres inland to the W of the Gulf of Maine waters...with a cold front extending S across the bt2 waters.

The 00z GFS indicated no significant changes from either the 18z or 12z runs from yesterday. It continues to indicate a vigorous low moving off the mid Atlantic coast Sun night. The 00z UKMET and CMC were slightly slower than the GFS...while the 00z ECMWF was very similar to the GFS. Even the 10 meter winds off the GFS indicates some 35 kt winds over the Balt canyon to Cape Fear waters later Sun night into early Mon morning. Considering the GFS has been persistent with this low and has at least moderate support from the 00z ECMWF will indicate gales for the Balt canyon to Hatteras Canyon waters for Sunday night into early Mon morning. Will make the final call on this after viewing new 00z ECMWF. Will maintain the 20 to 30 kt for the Hatteras to Cape Fear and the Cape Fear to 31n zones. Over the nt1 waters...expect SW to W winds to increase to 20 to 25 kt over the Gulf of Maine waters and extending E Sunday as another trough moves E across the northern waters.

The ww3 appear to be initialized well with observed values running close to the mdl fcst. Will plan on going close to the model through the entire fcst period.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...none. .Georges Bank...None. .S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...none. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...None. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale Sun night into Mon...low to MDT confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None. .Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster Scovil/kosier. Ocean forecast branch.