The Northeast Weather Blog... |
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| Posted by: Zachary Labe, Saat: 02:38 PM GMT Tarih: 13 Mayıs 2012 | +0 |
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member
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67 F°
Kapalı
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Linglestown, PA
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| Elevation: | 520 ft |
| Sıcaklık: | 64.6 F° |
| Çiğ noktası: | 51.3 F° |
| Nem oranı: | 62% |
| Rüzgar: | Durgun |
| Ani Rüzgar: | 0.0 mil |
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Updated: Saat: 10:01 PM EDT Tarih: 17 Mayıs 2013
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So it's a warm front trying to move north that will trigger the severe weather on Friday? any thoughts on how long the front will be in the area?
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY WITH
HEAVY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY/ WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE...THOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY NOT SHIFT SOUTHERLY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW...SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED FOR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THE REAL ACTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS LOW 60S I-95 AND
EAST...MID TO UPR 50S WEST.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM
A LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LWX CWA FROM MIDDAY OUT WEST TO THE
EVENING IN THE EAST. THIS IS FAVORABLE TIMING DIURNALLY SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING PWATS INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8
RANGE...SO EXPECT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT MEETS THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENT FOR SUPERCELLS BUT
IS NOT SPECTACULAR. HOWEVER...THE JET APPROACHES IN THE EVENING WITH
LWX IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...SO THE SUPERCELL THREAT LOOKS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR /IN BOTH 12Z NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 25 TO 30 KT
OF SFC TO 0.5KM SHEAR. THEREFORE THE WORDING IN THE HWO WILL BE
STRENGTHENED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES.
We got a little F0 tornado in Vermont on Tuesday, north of me. It did some damage, but I believe no injuries.
SPC HAS BASICALLY CARRIED OVER THE DY3 SLGT RISK AREA INTO DY2
WHICH ESSENTIALLY COVERS FROM I-80 SOUTH TO THE MD LINE. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL FROM WHAT SHOULD BE A MAINLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED-CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVER S-CENTRAL AND SERN PA. THE FAVORABLE TORNADO
INGREDIENTS ARE FCST TO BE IN PLACE...INCLUDING 20-30KT 0-1KM
SHEAR AND 0-3KM EHI VALUES BTWN 2-4 M2/S2. 0-1KM SHEAR HAS SHOWN
TO DELINEATE TORNADIC VS. NON-TORNADIC ENVIRONMENTS IN CENTRAL PA.
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT ARISES FROM 1) SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION NEAR/SOUTH OF WARM FNT AND 2) SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FNT WHERE
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
S-CENTRAL/SERN PA IS UPGRADED TO A CATG MODERATE RISK EITHER LATER
TODAY OR ON DY1...WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN THE SPC DY2 OUTLOOK.
do they expect the front to get hung up across the region for the weekend?
Looking at things this morning, I am getting increasingly concerned for a tornado threat across south-central PA in western MD and WV Friday.
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