Poorly sited U.S. temperature instruments not responsible for artificial warming
Former TV weatherman Anthony Watts, who runs the popular global warming contrarian website, "Watts Up With That", was convinced that many of the U.S. network of surface weather stations had serious flaws in their siting that was causing an artificial warm bias in the observed increase in U.S. temperatures of 1.1°F over the past century. To address this concern, Watts established the website surfacestations.org in 2007, which enlisted an army of volunteers to travel the U.S. to obtain photographic evidence of poor siting of weather stations. The goal was to document cases where "microclimate" influence was important, and could be contaminating temperature measurements. (Note that this is a separate issue from the Urban Heat Island, the phenomenon where a metropolitan area in general is warmer than surrounding rural areas). Watts' volunteers--650 strong--documented the siting of 865 of the 1,218 stations used in the National Climatic Data Center's U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) for tracking climate change. As reported in Watt's 2009 publication put out by the Heartland Institute, the volunteers "found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat." Watts surmised that these poorly-sited stations were responsible for much of the increase in U.S. temperatures over the past century, due to "a bias trend that likely results from the thermometers being closer to buildings, asphalt, etc." Watts concluded, "the U.S. temperature record is unreliable. And since the U.S. record is thought to be the best in the world, it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable".
Figure 1. A poorly sited temperature sensor in Marysville, California, used for the USHCN. The sensor is situation right next to an asphalt parking lot, instead in the middle of a grassy field, as it is supposed to be. The sensor is also adjacent to several several air conditioners that blow their exhaust into the air nearby. Image credit: surfacestation.org.
Analysis of the data disagrees with Watts' conclusion
While Watts' publication by the Heartland Institute is a valuable source of information on siting problems of the U.S. network of weather stations, the publication did not undergo peer-review--the process whereby three anonymous scientists who are experts in the field review a manuscript submitted for publication, and offer criticisms on the scientific validity of the results, resulting in revisions to the original paper or outright rejection. The Heartland Institute is an advocacy organization that accepts money from corporate benefactors such as the tobacco industry and fossil fuel industry, and publishes non-peer reviewed science that inevitably supports the interests of the groups paying for the studies. Watts did not actually analyze the data to see if taking out the poorly sited surface stations would have a significant impact on the observed 1.1°F increase in U.S. temperatures over the past century. His study would never have been publishable in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Figure 2. Annual average maximum and minimum unadjusted temperature change calculated using (c) maximum and (d) minimum temperatures from good and poor exposure sites (Menne 2010). Poor sites showed a cooler maximum temperature compared to good sites. For minimum temperature, the poor sites were slightly warmer. The net effect was a cool bias in poorly sited stations. The dashed lines are for stations ranked by NOAA, while the solid lines are for the stations ranked by surfacestations.org.
Fortunately, a proper analysis of the impact of these poorly-sited surface stations on the U.S. historical temperature record has now been done by Dr. Matthew Menne and co-authors at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). In a talk at last week's 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Menne reported the results of their new paper just accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research titled, On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record. Dr. Menne's study split the U.S. surface stations into two categories: good (rating 1 or 2) and bad (ratings 3, 4 or 5). They performed the analysis using both the rating provided by surfacestations.org, and from an independent rating provided by NOAA personnel. In general, the NOAA-provided ratings coincided with the ratings given by surfacestations.org. Of the NOAA-rated stations, only 71 stations fell into the "good" siting category, while 454 fell into the "bad" category. According to the authors, though, "the sites with good exposure, though small in number, are reasonably well distributed across the country and, as shown by Vose and Menne [2004], are of sufficient density to obtain a robust estimate of the CONUS average". Dr. Menne's study computed the average daily minimum and maximum temperatures from the good sites and poor sites. The results were surprising. While the poor sites had a slightly warmer average minimum temperature than the good sites (by 0.03°C), the average maximum temperature measured at the poor sites was significantly cooler (by 0.14°C) than the good sites. As a result, overall average temperatures measured at the poor sites were cooler than the good sites. This is the opposite of the conclusion reached by Anthony Watts in his 2009 Heartland Institute publication.
Why did the poorly sited stations measure cooler temperatures?
The reason why the poorly-sites stations measured cooler temperatures lies in the predominant types of thermometers used at the two types of sites. An electronic Maximum/Minimum Temperature System (MMTS) is used at 75% of the poor sites. These MMTS sensors are attached by cable to an indoor readout device, and are consequently limited by cable length as to how far they can be sited from the building housing the indoor readout device. As a result, they are often located close to heated buildings, paved surfaces, air conditioner exhausts, etc. It turns out that these MMTS thermometers have a flaw that causes them to measure minimum temperatures that are slightly too warm, and maximum temperatures that are considerably too cool, leading to an overall cool bias in measured average temperatures. In contrast, only 30% of the "good" sites used the MMTS sensors. The "good" sites predominantly used Liquid in Glass (LiG) thermometers housed in wooden shelters that were more easily located further from the buildings where the observers worked. Since the poorly-sites stations were dominantly equipped with MMTS thermometers, they tended to measure temperatures that were too cool, despite their poor siting.
Figure 3. Comparison of U.S. average annual (a) maximum and (b) minimum temperatures calculated using USHCN version 2 temperatures. Temperatures were adjusted to correct for changes in instrumentation, station relocations, and changes in the time of observation, making the trend from good sites show close agreement with poor sites. Good and poor site ratings are based on surfacestations.org. For comparison, the data between 2004 - 2008 taken by the new high-quality U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN, black dashed line) is shown, and displays excellent agreement for that time period. Image credit: Menne 2010.
Independent verification of recent USHCN annual temperatures
Clearly, the siting of many of the surface stations used to track climate change in the U.S. is not good. To address this issue, in 2004 NOAA created the U.S. Climate Reference Network, a collection of 114 stations in the continental United States for the express purpose of detecting the national signal of climate change. The stations were sited and instrumented with climate studies in mind, and can provide an extremely high-quality independent check on the old USHCN network. Each of 114 stations at 107 locations (some stations were installed as nearby pairs) is equipped with very accurate instruments in a triplicate configuration so that each measurement can be checked for internal consistency. As shown in Figure 3, the USCRN air temperature departures for 2004 - 2008 are extremely well aligned with those derived from the USHCN version 2 temperature data. For these five years, the the difference between the mean annual temperatures measured by the old USHCN compared to the new USCRN was just 0.03°C, with a mathematical correlation coefficient (r-squared) of 0.997. Menne et al. concluded, "This finding provides independent verification that the USHCN version 2 data are consistent with research-quality measurements taken at pristine locations and do not contain spurious trends during the recent past even if sampled exclusively at poorly sited stations. While admittedly this period of coincident observations between the networks is rather brief, the value of the USCRN as a benchmark for reducing the uncertainty of historic observations from the USHCN and other networks will only increase with time". The authors finally concluded, "we find no evidence that the CONUS temperature trends are inflated due to poor siting".
Crediting Anthony Watts
The surfacestations.org effort coordinated by Anthony Watts has made a valuable contribution to science, helping us better understand the nature of the errors in the U.S. historical temperature data set. In his talk last week at the AMS conference, and in the credits of his paper, Dr. Menne had some genuinely grateful comments on the efforts of Anthony Watts and the volunteers of surfacestations.org. However, as of this writing, Watts has made no mention on surfacestations.org or on wattsupwiththat.com of Dr. Menne's study.
I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.
Jeff Masters
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GETTING MORE HELP
A search and rescue corpsman and U.S. Navy Lt Cmdr. Robert Propes carry a 7-year-old Haitian boy from a Sea Hawk helicopter for medical evaluation at Terminal Varreux, Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Jan. 25, 2010. The station opened recently as a medical gateway for Haitians to gain access to medical treatments aboard naval vessels at anchor in port. Propes is a medical officer from the Military Sealift Command hospital ship USNS Comfort. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Timothy Wilson
5,000-Bed Hospital to Increase Haitian Medical Capacity
By John J. Kruzel
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Jan. 26, 2010. International relief workers in Haiti are developing a 5,000-bed hospital in the capital of Port-au-Prince to increase medical capacity as the country struggles to recover two weeks after a devastating earthquake struck.
Among other facilities, the hospital will accept patients from the floating hospital ship USNS Comfort, where more than 100 surgeries have been performed since arriving at the Haitian coast last week.
Though still some weeks away from becoming fully operational, U.S. medical equipment that will outfit the additional hospital in northern Port-au-Prince has begun to arrive, Army Lt. Gen. P.K. Keen, the top U.S. commander in Haiti, told Pentagon reporters today.
We are anticipating to at least get the seeds of that hospital up within the next week or so, but that we'll begin small and then grow from there, Keen said via teleconference from Haiti. We are hoping to be able to at least start with a 250-man centerpiece.
Haitian authorities have said more than 150,000 bodies have been buried in Haiti since a magnitude 7 earthquake devastated the country Jan. 12. Original estimates by the Red Cross were that upwards of 3 million Haitians were affected.
International aid continues pouring into Haiti in the midst of what an official called one of the greatest humanitarian emergencies in the history of the Americas. Among those assets is the USNS Comfort, on which U.S. medical personnel has taken aboard nearly 400 patients, performed more than 100 surgeries and filled more than 11,800 prescriptions since its Jan. 20 arrival.
Keen said the Haitian government quickly granted a request for a large piece of land -- situated near the hospital ship and also accessible by road -- that could host the 5,000-bed hospital. A principal source of the incoming patients will come from the Comfort, he added.
We want to continue to see a flow of patients that need that critical care that the Comfort offers, and then take patients off of her that do not need that any longer, in order to maximize the utility of the Comfort, Keen said.
The general said nongovernment organizations are determining who will man the hospital once it opens its doors to patients, with the United States playing the role of advisors and assistants in what Keen characterized as a joint venture.
[The organizations] are responding, in terms of being able to manage the hospital and in being able to staff the hospital, he said. We are enabling that by working with the international community to procure tinnage and all the things that you can imagine you need in order to build a hospital of that magnitude.
Re: t-dude's post, hopefully, maturity begets maturity...
Well done, my boy.
Yep, easily amused.
I've been looking for some news concerning the amount of snow that expected in VA this weekend.
thanks,
I was just sick of it, and I know many others were as well
Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur)
Saturday, September 18, 2010
from www.catholic.com
Minor or venial sins can be confessed directly to God...
Lol good afternoon, I'll work on that
yeah im supposed to get 14 inches here! cant wait!!
(yellow numbers is POP)
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA (06F)
3:00 AM FST January 28 2010
===================================
At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Nisha (995 hPa) located at 15.7S 169.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots expected to increase to 40 knots in the next 6-12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral observations.
Gale Force Winds
===============
within 120 NM from the center in sectors from southeast to southwest and within 60 NM from the center elsewhere.
Deep convection remains persistent. Organization and outflow aloft remains good. Nisha lies under an upper ridge axis along a monsoon trough in a low sheared environment. System remains in a region of strong diffluence enhanced by a short-wave trouhg to the west. A northwest monsoonal surge continues to feed into the system. Sea surface temperatures is around 30C. Nisha is being steered southeast under a northwest steering field into an area of decreasing shear.
Dvorak based on LOG 10 spiral yielding..
DT=3.0, PT=3.0. FT based on DT.. thus
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS
Global models agree on a southeast track intially and further intensification before recurving it northeast.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.1S 168.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.1S 167.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.5S 165.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NISHA WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 20:30 PM UTC...
Whoops, it IS afternoon...
I think you already did, re your post #1443.
I have to look up "venial," though! (:
hope so :p
Okay, that is exciting. Thanks :)
Wow! I have a feeling we're going to end up with more than that here in Madison County.
Maybe I should go to the Co-op and get a saucer!
I suppose you want me to change my avatar to the other now, huh! :)
What? Oh, yes, I can. But I am not going to do it for you. I have done it here, to some degree, before.
I have already provided a number of items of published research about the disparity between the urban and rural stations.
Wasting folks' time? (What was that you said about "hold the snark"? Getting a bit snide, yourself, sport)
Indiana electricity rates may rise, growth in demand slow through 2013
Thank God...
Looks like it's going to miss us here in Fort Worth; they're calling for flurries, essentially, along with a little sleet when the change from rain to frozen precip happens. No call for appreciable accunulation. Now Oklahoma, on the other hand...going to be bad...
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