Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Winter Olympics forecast: near-record warmth

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Saat: 03:28 PM GMT Tarih: 15 Şubat 2010

Under sunny skies and warm southwest winds the temperature in Vancouver, British Columbia climbed to 54°F (12.4°C) yesterday, just missing the record of 12.9°C (55°F) for the date, set in 1991 (records in Vancouver go back to 1937). That was marvelous weather for all the joggers that were out in t-shirts and shorts in Vancouver yesterday, but is lousy weather if you're trying to hold a Winter Olympics. The men's downhill was postponed yesterday and rescheduled for today, because of rain and bad snow. The women's combined, originally scheduled to run Saturday, has been postponed until Thursday. The mountain has been getting snow at the top, a mix of snow and rain along the middle section, and rain at the bottom, making for very difficult skiing conditions. Practice runs have been mostly been canceled. In West Vancouver, where the moguls competition was held yesterday, snow had to be trucked and helicoptered in because there wasn't enough on the ground. The snow-making machines weren't any help, because it was too warm to make snow. Too bad Philadelphia or Washington D.C. didn't make a bid for the Winter Olympics! It's an upside-down winter when Canada has trouble getting snow, and Washington D.C. gets five feet.

As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada has seen very unusual warmth, with temperatures over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country.

Figure 1. Departure of January temperature from average for the strong to moderate strength El Niño year of 2010 (left), and a composite of the last five years that had a moderate to strong El Niño (right). Note that typically, an El Niño event brings much warmer than average temperatures to Vancouver, and cooler than average conditions to Florida. This year has seen an extreme amplification of this pattern. The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is evident over eastern Canada and Greenland, where exceptionally warm temperatures were recorded. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Why all the warmth in Vancouver? El Niño partly to blame
So, what's going on? The average high temperature in Vancouver this time of year is typically 8°C (46°F). Vancouver has seen above-average temperatures every day this month, and tied one daily record so far. This unusual February warmth follows a record warm month of January, which averaged 3°C (5.4°F) above average, beating the previous record set in 2006 by a pretty significant margin, 0.9°C (1.6°F). Nearby Seattle, Washington had its warmest January in 120 years of record keeping, and both Oregon and Washington recorded their 4th warmest January. As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada saw very unusual warmth, with temperature anomalies over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country. Record warm January temperatures were observed not only over British Columbia, but also over Manitoba and over much of Quebec, where half of the province's twelve largest cities experienced their warmest or second warmest January on record. Unusual Canadian warmth is to be expected during a moderate to strong El Niño episode, which is what we've had this winter in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The pattern we've seen during the previous five moderate to strong El Niños dating back to 1987 (Figure 1, right) shows this trend, and also the trend towards colder than average conditions in Florida. However, the pattern for January 2010 shows an extreme amplification of this El Niño pattern. We had record warmth over much of Canada, and Florida got socked with its 10th coldest January on record. The extreme amplification of the January temperature pattern was due in part to the influence of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, a natural wind pattern over the North Atlantic measured by the difference in pressure between Iceland and ocean areas to the south. That difference in pressure was remarkably small in the first half of January, leading to the weakest Arctic Oscillation pattern in 60 years of record keeping. This allowed cold air to spill southwards into Florida, and helped bring very warm temperatures to Greenland and Eastern Canada. El Niño, combined with the Arctic Oscillation, all superimposed upon exceptionally warm global temperatures, is probably the best explanation for the record January warmth in Canada. Globally, January 2010 was the 4th warmest January on record, with global ocean temperatures the 2nd warmest on record, according to NOAA.

The forecast: near-record warmth for Vancouver
The forecast for Vancouver for the remainder of the week calls for temperatures above 10°C (50°F) each day. Today's forecast high of 10°C (50°F) will approach the record high for the date of 12.6°C (55°F). The long range forecast through the remainder of the Winter Olympics promises continued near-record warmth, as the jet stream is projected to stay in its current El Niño-type pattern. In this configuration, a strong ridge of high pressure stays anchored over the Pacific coast, allowing plenty of warm air from the southwest into British Columbia. Unfortunately for the winter games, I expect that Vancouver will end up experiencing its 1st or 2nd warmest February on record.

No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest. I did an interview with the Washington Post weather blog by the "Capital Weather Gang", for those interested.

Jeff Masters

2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay (galeao)

The Olympic Torch Relay departing Mackin Park in Coquitlam, BC. Crowds lined the streets and braved the Vancouver rain to cheer on the torchbearers as they continued on to the city of Burnaby. Just one more day before the Olympic Cauldron will be lit in Vancouver on February 12, 2010.

Ballet Of Light (galeao)

The 'Ballet Of Light', formally known as artist Rafael Lozano-Hemmer's art project Vectorial Elevation, consists of 20 robotically controlled, 10,000-watt Zenon lights that have been installed at Vanier Park and Sunset Beach in Vancouver. Beginning on February 5, they will be lighting the sky over English Bay every night until dawn, right up to the last day of the 2010 Winter Olympics on February 28. The pattern of the lights changes every 10 seconds in response to geometric designs submitted from the public via the Internet. It is quite a sight but works best with low clouds like this evening. View with the Inukshuk at the southern end of English Bay Beach.

Categories: Winter Weather

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401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 03:14 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: I'm not talking about the low itself, I'm referring to the moisture from this system being injected into the southern jet this weekend as a trough sets up in the eastern US. not getting much on models Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

402. AstroHurricane001 Saat: 03:42 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
If this invest in the Central Pacific remains stationary for much longer, it is going to strengthen El Nino slightly as it circulates warm water to the east and cool water to the Central Western Pacific from the north. Member Since: Ağustos 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

403. Bordonaro Saat: 03:44 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: Notice the blob to the south-southwest of Hawaii. Looks like a tropical disturbance trying to form, and it's north of Rene's surrounding tropical moisture. Betcha the Sub Tropical Jet will tap that moisture later this week into next week, adding an additional kick to that big L in the C Pac that will be moving towards the W CONUS. Member Since: Ağustos 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

404. Bordonaro Saat: 03:57 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
The GFS 00Z run for 2-17-10 is running currently up to 54 hrs, it will be interesting to see what this shows for this weekend into next week. Member Since: Ağustos 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

405. Bordonaro Saat: 04:04 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Look at the C PAC 90C and the feed from the Sub Tropical Jet. It will be interesting if that moisture is tapped and thrown into the CONUS next week! Member Since: Ağustos 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

409. Tazmanian Saat: 05:01 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
i like geting my mode runs from here Link all so i noted at the end of the run the cold air go way way N may parts of the midwest may see there 1st 60s and 70s Member Since: Mayıs 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111625

410. HadesGodWyvern Saat: 08:21 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Mauritius Meteorological Services Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number NINE CYCLONE TROPICAL GELANE (12-20092010) 10:00 AM Réunion February 16 2010 ================================= At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gelane (960 hPa) located at 13.5S 61.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported moving south southeast at 6 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/12 HRS Hurricane Force Winds ===================== 15 NM from the center Storm Force Winds ================ 25 NM from the center Gale-Force Winds ================ 60 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi circle Near Gale-Force Winds ======================= 100 NM from the center extending up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant Forecast and Intensity ====================== 12 HRS: 14.0S 61.4E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) 24 HRS: 14.7S 61.7E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) 48 HRS: 15.9S 61.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) 72 HRS: 17.5S 61.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense) Additional Information ======================== An eye is now visible on satellite imagery. Equatorward upper level outflow is weakening and a poleward one is building closed to a westerly subtropical jet wind shear is not expected to strengthen significantly before 72 hours. Environment should therefore remain rather favorable and then degrade progressively as an upper level trough is coming from the west. GELANE is expected to keep on slowly tracking south southeast then southward over the next 48 hours then recurving southwestward undergoing the mid level subtropical ridge steering influence. Available numerical weather prediction models show yet variations about chronology, but they all suggest a southward then southwestward track. Present forecast remain in the philosophy of previous advisories and is close to the tracks followed by this models. Member Since: Mayıs 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36927

412. severstorm Saat: 11:26 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Morning, leftovers i agree with you on the commercials. The olympics are great. . Member Since: Kasım 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 917

413. nrtiwlnvragn Saat: 11:27 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
000 WHXX01 KMIA 170700 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0700 UTC WED FEB 17 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902010) 20100217 0600 UTC ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 2.4N LONCUR = 165.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 0KT LATM12 = 2.4N LONM12 = 165.5W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 1KT LATM24 = 2.3N LONM24 = 165.4W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Member Since: Eylül 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9093

414. IKE Saat: 11:32 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
In February? WTH? Member Since: Haziran 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

415. nrtiwlnvragn Saat: 11:38 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
SHIPS text for 90C. Shear ramps up after 24 hours. Member Since: Eylül 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9093

416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 11:56 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
625 WHXX01 KMIA 170700 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0700 UTC WED FEB 17 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902010) 20100217 0600 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100217 0600 100217 1800 100218 0600 100218 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 2.4N 165.6W 4.0N 165.8W 4.3N 166.0W 3.5N 166.2W BAMD 2.4N 165.6W 4.6N 165.8W 5.9N 165.4W 6.5N 164.0W BAMM 2.4N 165.6W 4.3N 165.5W 5.1N 164.9W 5.0N 163.8W SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 41KTS DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 41KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100219 0600 100220 0600 100221 0600 100222 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 2.1N 165.7W .4N 167.2W .9N 168.0W .8N 168.4W BAMD 6.9N 161.9W 9.2N 158.4W 13.3N 154.9W 15.4N 148.9W BAMM 4.3N 162.0W 4.2N 159.1W 6.0N 159.1W 7.5N 160.4W SHIP 40KTS 32KTS 33KTS 30KTS DSHP 40KTS 32KTS 33KTS 30KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 2.4N LONCUR = 165.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 0KT LATM12 = 2.4N LONM12 = 165.5W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 1KT LATM24 = 2.3N LONM24 = 165.4W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

417. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 11:56 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
x Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

418. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 11:59 AM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

419. IKE Saat: 12:00 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
At 2.4N? LOL.... 103 days... 18 hours... and the Atlantic season starts. Member Since: Haziran 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

420. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 12:04 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
strange to have anything out there at all Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

421. IKE Saat: 12:11 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: strange to have anything out there at all True..... Member Since: Haziran 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

422. nrtiwlnvragn Saat: 12:15 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Unusual, but not unprecendented Member Since: Eylül 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9093

423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 12:22 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
iam even surprize its an invest be so close to 0n mark figured they would have waited till at least 5 n Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

424. PensacolaDoug Saat: 12:24 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Member Since: Temmuz 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4831

425. unf97 Saat: 12:39 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Good morning! Heading off to work, but I have a chilly 27.4 degrees this morning at my north Jax, FL home. A beautiful, crisp winter day is in store today as the max temp is expected to rise into the low 50s. Another freeze tonight with lows in the upper 20s. A slow warm-up by this weekend. Have a great day! Member Since: Eylül 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

426. bassis Saat: 12:42 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
12 in. in Dover NH Member Since: Eylül 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 422

428. biff4ugo Saat: 01:16 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Thanks Jeff. Advanced potential is helpful to know. AP Highschoolers are pretty good. Member Since: Aralık 28, 2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1214

429. nrtiwlnvragn Saat: 01:16 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902010) 20100217 1200 UTC ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 2.5N LONCUR = 164.5W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 3KT LATM12 = 2.5N LONM12 = 165.6W DIRM12 = 72DEG SPDM12 = 2KT LATM24 = 2.3N LONM24 = 165.5W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM 12Z SHIPS text Member Since: Eylül 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9093

430. Orcasystems Saat: 02:11 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI Humor in Comments Member Since: Ekim 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

431. AussieStorm Saat: 02:25 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
Evening all Member Since: Eylül 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795

432. CycloneOz Saat: 02:40 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
NEW BLOG! Member Since: Ağustos 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3154

433. Skyepony (Mod) Saat: 02:41 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
A glitch for every gold Neither athletes nor fans spared Member Since: Ağustos 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29982

434. AwakeInMaryland Saat: 02:50 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
FYI, BTW... NEW BLOG! Member Since: Ağustos 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

435. wunderkidcayman Saat: 02:51 PM GMT Tarih: 17 Şubat 2010
NEW BLOG NEWBLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG Member Since: Haziran 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

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