Wet, windy Nor'easter slams Northeast; season's first Category 5 storm is Ului
An extremely wet and windy Nor'easter whipped through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. over the weekend, dropping rains in excess of six inches over some regions, and driving high winds gusting near hurricane force. On Saturday afternoon, JFK Airport in New York City recorded sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to hurricane force--75 mph. Soils already saturated from run-off due to all the melting snow from the heavy winter snows have been unable to absorb the heavy rains. As a result, there is widespread minor to moderate river flooding, and many power poles have toppled due to the high winds and wet soil. Over half a million people were without power in the region over the weekend. The Nor'easter will continue to bring strong winds and moderate rain to the region today, then gradually weaken and move away from the Northeast on Tuesday.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the weekend Nor'easter over the Northeast. Rainfall amounts in excess of six inches (pink colors) occurred in New York and Connecticut.
Ului: first Category 5 storm of the year
The first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year has arrived. Over the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Uliu intensified into a lower-end Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in the open waters of the South Pacific, east of Australia. Ului has weakened slightly into a still-powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph, but is projected to significantly decay as the week progresses, due to high wind shear. Some of the models foresee that Ului will be a long-range threat to the Queensland coast of Australia by the end of the week, but the storm should be in a much weakened state by then, and may also turn out to sea without hitting land. Australia has had a remarkably easy hurricane season so far--no tropical cyclones entered Australian waters during the month of February, the first time that has happened since 1944. That would be equivalent to the U.S. having no tropical storms near our coast in the hurricane-prone month of August.
Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Ului at peak strength at 22:22 UTC Saturday, March 13. At the time, Ului was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 918 mb. Image credit: NRL Monterey.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Meanwhile, Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Tomas is causing trouble in the Fiji Islands, where the cyclone's 125-mph sustained winds are being felt in the less populated eastern islands. Tomas has already claimed one life, ripped off roofs, and caused extensive power outages in the Fiji Islands, according to news reports. However, the cyclone is missing the two largest and most populated islands.
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I miss snow!! ;)
Like the idiot i am but, is the QBO phase and its direction have upon any Correlation of ENSO phases?
These inconsistencies are exactly why I don't really put stock into the QBO in my hurricane outlooks. I will be studying it though and paying attention to it more when the AMO goes cold, which if history holds true again is when it should show a greater correlation with hurricane activity.
Good questions. I think I'll stay with my "I dunno" with a lean towards it has *some* (maybe marginal) effect.
Not really...the QBO alternates fairly predictably every 13-16 months. The ENSO is obviously a more erratic pattern of up and down.
You do remember where he lives, don't you? What other options can there be? ;)
I have a question and yes it is off Topic...
Do you think I should go and chase "Tornado's or Drive to Key West in "May"????
Really do need input on this because of the up coming Hurricane Season I just don't think it will be a good idea in September....
Taco :0)
Levi answered you question quite well.
Yeah that's true. More questions....it needs to be studied more, but for now I'm with Atmo in considering it only a marginal effect at best.
Key West in May is better than Key West in September ....this September might not be good for Key West?
Hmmm? (Just remembering when the PDO went negative last, 1950....not saying I know the answer)
Thank you.......i knew there was a big difference in the time frame but was just courious about the effect ENSO might have if any.
He said AMO not PDO....PDO was negative from mid-1940s to 1976, then was warm until 1998. AMO was positive from the mid-1920s to early 1960s, then was negative until 1995.
Oh, I've been meaning to ask him something myself.
Levi, is it going to rain on my camping trip around April 26th?
(Not a jab at Skepticall)
I was commenting and the lack of correlation after the AMO switched.
The PDO certainly is interesting and matches with our switch. Perhaps someone should do a study on the PDO and the QBO.
I know...just coincidental...maybe.
Random? Lol......uhm to be honest I wasn't thinking about it but all it took was one glance at the GFS to say absolutely not. No onshore flow from gulf....cool temps....all northeasterly surface flow with a southeast-diving shortwave. Not much of a chance for thunderstorms, much less severe.
I'm not really following you guys....the period 1950-1995 during which the QBO had a strong correlation saw both a cold and warm phase of the PDO.
EDIT:
Ok lol.
SPC is not showing anything for your area. I'm guessing a bit of rain and a few rumbles of thunder...
I perfer PDQ ......it makes great Chocolate milk shakes too!
LOL
LOL!
Forecast for your system from SPC:
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN TX WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
SPEED MAX. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SPATIAL COVERAGE WILL WARRANT A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS REGION.
The Sea level pressure 4 day chart shows Ului making landfall in Eastern Australia
Well, tough to believe that a temperature swing in the largest body of specific heat on the planet couldn't have *some* effect on the characteristics of the QBO. What is the effect by the time it reaches the Atlantic? No one knows...we really haven't been measuring it well for long.
I think we are going to be learning a lot about PDO teleconnections in the next 20 years...
And a whole lot of other things. It will be the first cold phase of the PDO which we will get to fully observe (no satellite data back before 1976 when the last cold PDO ended).
That he does.
But, I don't need him for the snow forecast, I have a 5-year-old. Said it would snow back in Dec 2008. We said, "Son, it doesn't snow often in SE LA." 3 weeks later, 6 inches on the ground and stuck around for 48 hours.
Now he is certain that he knows EVERYTHING and we don't usually know what we are talking about.
(Like Levi? j/k, dude!)
(2) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Warm east-central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), or El Nino, reduces storm activity, while anom-alously cool SST enhances it. Going into summer we currently have at least a moderate El Nino in place. The outlook for this event, however, is for it not to become a strong El Nino, because the QBO is becoming westerly (which tends to inhibit El Nino) and the Singapore 100 mb temperature anomalies have not been strongly positive. Therefore, while the ENSO situation will clearly have an inhibiting effect on hurricane activity, its influence is not expected to dominate with respect to conflicting influences for 1997.
Hmm...first I've heard about influences on the ENSO itself? Not to mention that the '97 El Nino DID become strong, very strong.
LOL....you should ask your son about this hurricane season, unless you've already told him all about how active it's gonna be :)
So, as i was asking. Seems there might be a correlation and influence. I kinda thought there might be causing stronger ENSO events.
Now I'm curious too!!LOL
That bit jumped out at you, too, I see. I am going to say that, though I am not familiar with a study on the link between the two, it makes sense that a westerly QBO phase would help disrupt the Walker circulation.
Typical:
El Nino:
State of disaster in cyclone-hit Fiji
1 hr 25 mins ago
SUVA (AFP) – The Fiji government declared a state of disaster in the cyclone-ravaged nation Tuesday as the scale of damage began to emerge after 17,000 people fled to evacuation centres.
Cyclone Tomas cut a swathe of destruction through the north and east as winds averaging 165 kilometres (102 miles) an hour lashed the Pacific island group for a second day.
The main island of Viti Levu was spared the worst of the devastation but there were reports of extensive damage from the second largest island, Vanua Levu, and eastern outlying islands, officials said.
Lemme go wake him up...
...
...
...
he said Sponge Bob had a grease accident at Crusty Crab's and spread a thin sheen of oil over the whole MDR. No evaporation, thus, no CV storms this year. He said that's partly why it is above average temps right now, too, that and the weak trade winds.
(his words...lol)
Hi AIM!
G'Nite, all.
NOW THATS AWESOME!!!!
Yeah I suppose so, but I have a hard time believing the effect is that strong. Also, the '02, '04, and '06 ninos all took place during a westerly QBO.
'nite all!
Right. The opposite of what I was thinking.
They said "westerly QBO, inhibit El Nino". Seems that would be other way around in my head...
Man I am saying "I dunno" a lot tonight. Bedtime. Nighty-Nite.
LOL! That's awesome.
'Night Atmo. Good discussions tonight.
That's funny.....I thought maybe westerly winds would inhibit the upper tropospheric easterlies during El Nino or something. Who knows lol. Oh well. Night :)
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