First Atlantic Invest, 90L is here; oil now 350 miles west of Key West
An extratropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas today, and has been designated as the first "Invest" of the year (90L) by the National Hurricane Center. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first named storm--Alex--and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. Wind shear is currently 40 knots over the low, and the high shear ripped apart a low level circulation that was attempting to form this morning. Water vapor loops show a large amount of dry, continental air exists to the west of the storm, and this dry air will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 5 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.
Potential heavy rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Wednesday - Thursday time frame next week. The models are less enthusiastic about the prospects for tropical development than they were in yesterday's runs, and it currently appears that high levels of wind shear will make formation of a tropical depression improbable.
Oil spill continues to impact Louisiana shores
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds may be creating strong enough surface currents that the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current may be significantly reduced or shut off over the next few days, as suggested by the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast by Tuesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current next week.
Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:53pm EDT May 20, 2010, by the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current appears truncated, and very little oil may be flowing south. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Oil now 350 miles due west of Key West
Satellite imagery from today's 12:15pm EDT pass of NASA's Terra satellite (Figure 3) shows that a narrow ribbon of oil is caught in the Loop Current. The oil has moved south and then southwest, and the leading edge of the oil is now about 350 miles due west of Key West, Florida. The oil is substantial enough to modify the cumulus clouds in the Gulf of Mexico, though NOAA characterizes this portion of the oil spill as "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams." The oil is now headed away from the Keys towards a major kink in the Loop Current. By Saturday, the oil should double back towards the Keys in a eastward flowing branch of the Loop Current, and will likely pass just south of Key West by Tuesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument for 12:15pm EDT May 21, 2010. I've enhanced the region along the eastern boundary of the Loop Current showing the south and southwestward moving ribbon of oil. Note that the oil is substantial enough to be affecting the low level cumulus clouds along portions of the ribbon of oil. The oil has reached the latitude of the Florida Keys.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back with a new post Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
Okay...it wouldn't download it. Is there some way that gets in my computer? I rebooted 2-3 times. Working fine now.
Also some convection in the area. Is this an area to watch?
All of the cyclone phase diagrams more or less have the system starting out as a shallow warm core system.
As far as I know only eats away at your memory, just took a long time to download (relatively) which also eats away at your computer resources while its doing it. Unless you have one if those octo core processors with a T1 line.
Say what? LOL.
It may have eaten away at my memory. I may have to add more to my computer....soon. It just about froze my computer up. Operating at dial-up speed!
Dial-up, no wonder. I thought it was slow with high speed DSL!
Dead Wildlife Found on Beaches at Grand Isle
Added by The Times-Picayune on May 21, 2010 at 7:51 PM
A.J. SISCO / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE An oil coated dead seabird on the shore of Elmer's Island Friday, May 21, 2010. Cleanup crews spent the last two days trying to remove the oil from the beach after it came ashore from the blown out BP oil-well in the gulf.
A Candle Light Vigil for Victims of Explosion
Added by The Times-Picayune on May 21, 2010 at 7:51 PM
A.J. SISCO / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE (L to R) Marni Rosen and Shorey Myers, of San Francisco, hold candles during a candlelight vigil on Decatur Street in New Orleans to pay tribute to all that has been lost in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and call on BP and the federal government to do better May 20, 2010.
Oil HIts Beaches of Grand Isle
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 21, 2010 at 7:18 PM
MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil washes up on the beach in Grand Isle on Friday, May 21, 2010.
A Candle Light Vigil for Victims of Explosion
Added by The Times-Picayune on May 21, 2010 at 7:51 PM
A.J. SISCO / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE (L to R) Monica Alicino and Elizabeth Ledet, both from New Orleans, hold signs during a vigil in the French Quarter to pay tribute to all that has been lost in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and call on BP and the federal government to do better May 20, 2010.
I suspect it was post #747 by Ossqss. I've got a pretty decent laptop here and it bogged it down for quite a few seconds while the graphics loaded. (I'm a paid member too, so no ads.)
LOL. It isn't much of anything in the moment. Lighten up - the statement wasn't directed at you, unless you have a calabash tree. (Same old juvenile playground.)
actually that isnt true, EPAC doesnt always get a named storm in May, in fact last season they didnt have their 1st named storm until late June and it was an El Nino season that ended up with 20 storms
wounder ground sea temper maps is crap
dos not tell the hole thing
I am loading the 200 posts version...no probs
(why, I cannot say)
Yep, fairly useless.
i like uesing this above
Sorry I meant La Nina.
I went to correct the mistake and my PC froze up, twice. had to do a reset.
The Epac in May is like june for the atlantic maybe a storm will form but it's not unusual if it doesn't. And I wouldn't expect two storms in the Epac by may 22 it's only been one week into hurricane season
Looks OK now.
Is there oil still pouring into the GOM?
I cannot help but notice how much the Gulf of Mexico has warmed up. The entire GOM appears to be close to the 80F mark, amazing what the hot sun and light winds will do!
Without a doubt.There are some live vids of the thing.
Latest I heard and read, yes still pouring out of the well.
Goodnight all
If they were the ones I placed, sorry. I pulled them and place a link instead. I did not realize it could handicap some folks PC's/connections :(
Yes, probably at about 15,000+ barrels per day. BP claimed they were recovering 5,000 bbl/day and Lord knows there is a whole bunch spewing out into the Gulf.
Yes, and part of it looks like this (from a camera a mile down):
Would like to see just how toxic that stuff is. Now that I have to worry about what is IN the wind driven rain... Not just getting wind driven rain.
Why don't they repair the pipeline? That is rather a waste of oil, not mention the environmental concern.
You have obviously been to busy with the WU work you have! LOL
There has been a load of stuff on the questions you ask.
Too much to go into now.
But in short- they are trying to stop the leak. They have been unsuccesful.
It is a bent and kinked pipe...and a mile down, only robotic subs can be used.
Wish it were that simple, but it isn't.
Yeah... Please tell that to BP...
You won't get any arguments from that statement here.
I could be wrong about this, but I think the dispersant itself really only has a oxygen level effect (not good, certainly).
And it basically just allows the oil to settle among the whole column of water, not just the surface...thus still there, only out of sight.
(I should just shut up...I don't really know what I am talking about here.)
You must not visit this blog often. LOL
I have.
It all seems ludicrous to me though.
HAHAHAHAHAH
Thats a classic.
You got yourself into this, 456!
They were forced to use another due to the EPA demanding it. The Corexit product is to toxic in many respects including oxygen. I spoke to someone who worked logistics during the Alaskan incident and he said in no uncertain terms that product keeps the oil underwater and out of sight. Just sayin, we may have a Gulf of Mexicoil and not know it yet :(
"Corexit was readily available in the quantities required by the spill response plan which was pre-approved by the government for use in spill response," he added. "It has been very effective in causing the oil to form into small, isolated droplets that remain suspended until they're either eaten by naturally occurring microbes, evaporate, are picked up, or dissolve."
http://views.washingtonpost.com/climate-change/post-carbon/2010/05/epa_demands_less_toxic_dispersan t.html
Not to mention no one gave any thought as how to solve a disaster like this until it actually happened.
ATMO -
That is at least what they are telling us... Iw ould stil like to know WHAT it is... Even chemical makeup. This is making me think twice about eating seafood from the gulf waters. (If not all seafood just to be safe)
Totally ludicrous. But the technical issues are enormous, and there are no precedents.
Viewing: 851 - 901
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index