Invest 90L in the Tropical Atlantic
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters while he's on vacation.
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent storms in 90L, peak rain rates were around 1-2 inches/hours. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses 90L is under 10-15 knots of shear with positive divergence aloft. The former isn't quite favorable for further development as it will ventilate the system, but the latter is favorable because it will aid in removing outflow from the storms. There's also a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest of 90L's current position. Looking at the 500 mb height patterns, the steering currents for 90L are to the WNW, which will move it into the area of weaker shear and get it further away from the equator. This is important because if 90L stays south, it will have trouble developing a circulation. It will have a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone once it goes north of 10N. The Saharan Air Layer is lurking just to the north of 90L. A WNW track would keep 90L out of the SAL, which is good for development.
Fig. 1 IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 540 PM EDT.
Fig. 2 Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of CIMMS.
Model Forecasts and Climatology
The 12Z Canadian model moves 90L to the WNW and develops tropical-storm force winds at the surface. The 12Z and 18Z GFS runs are less aggressive in intensifying 90L and adjusts the track so that 90L is moving to the WNW. Based on the run-to-run consistency, previous model verification (i.e. the Canadian model's tendency to overdo intensification), general synoptic pattern, I favor the GFS solution for now. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University, none of the tropical cyclones that passed within 1 degree of 90L's current position has ever made landfall. We'll have to keep an eye on this storm, but I don't think it's likely to be a major threat to the Caribbean or US.
Update
Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 — Blog Index
Archive
LOL!
check out 306 for an explanation
Fruit-caster! :)
This thing is all figured out.... Dont come in here, write a blog and confuse everyone by adding fact... Man what has the world come to?
For me personally, as much as looking at 90L..... I was looking at what all the models were doing to the A/B High pressure...... seems there is a forecasted weakness off the east coast of the CONUS, which would allow a storm to curve up the coast, and miss the Conus. But obvious, this certainly depends on how much latitude and attitude 90L can muster before getting west......
This is NOT an ordinary Atlantic Hurricane Season :o)
Link
Knowing 90L is associated with a wave should shed some light on track. It ought to find its groove riding somewhere along/near the ridge periphery. You pick the steering level and isohype, LOL.
I'll take 700mb and 321 dam for $.02 for now.
No they are not actually.
It is 1.1 degrees away by using the Pythagorean Theorum and the Distance formula
d = sqrt of (xsub2 - xsub1)^2 + (ysub2 - ysub1)^2
31.3-32.1= -.8
-.8^2=.64
8.2-9.0= -.8
-.8^2=.64
.64 + .64 = 1.28
The square root of 1.28 is 1.13 (doesn't look right, but check yourself, it is)
d=1.13
Well that was a lot to type up over something so minute lol
90L is not a tropical cyclone, it's a 20% invest attached to the ITCZ. The statement of climatology on an invest is null and void IMO as there is no climatology to support invests. The climatology will apply when and if 90L decides to become a tropical cyclone.
Agree
One thing to note 90L is not a tropical cyclone so the statement By Rob has no merit whatsoever
POOF
Still waiting on yours to come down.
Anytime now...
WUMail
he also wrote "Dr. Masters says he'll update this blog entry with a discussion of the Moscow heatwaves later tonight"
BOOOOOOO!
LOL. I think he meant in general. A diagonal line would be longer than a line straight vertical or horizontal between the two points, hence why the hypotenuse of a triangle is always the longest side (of a right triangle) no matter what.
But if he meant latitude and longitude individually, then yeah it is within a degree.
Without necessarily taking sides on this issue, it's being very brave to go against the US hurricane models since they have a relatively good track record but in this specific case with 90L, the system's heading is WSW or about 255 degrees yet still the models fail to recognise that initial southward component and they take system due WNW from the onset. The BAM suite does take into consideration this initial motion a little better and they show a westward movement for a day or so before they begin to lift the system northwards which makes more sense at least from a meteorological standpoint.
I've seen the US hurricane models have this northward bias so often especially in the deep tropics that sometimes they look almost hopeless.
Niño 4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño1+2 -2.0ºC
am not sure what part the W PAC Niño it is but am starting to think why the W PAC is haveing a vary slow seanon i think La Niña overe there on there part may be so strong now that it has this shut down the W PAC has trad winds overe there has this took overe
new map this update temper are now geting down too -2.5 and i all so think this is why the W PAC has been dead so far this season i think La Niña is this too strong overe there and this shut down evere thing
any commets on this are welcome
where we
will discuss
frying eggs on concreate in red square
while thousands freeze in extreme south america
U Caster
I don't understand why you say this season is going to be very slow....I mean isn't it not until around now (August)that Hurricane seasons start to ramp up anyways? Like it is starting to do now.
Oh come on.. it's so bad~ there has been over 2000, mostly highly intoxicated people, that have drowned while trying to cool themselves off in the last two months there. I know heat waves aren't the most exciting but if that's not some crazy heat wave record worthy of mention~ what is??
LOL
I typically ignore models which don't initialize in the right location, or right direction..... in this case extrap and the models don't jive.....
But the GFDL and HWRF, and many other dynamic models don't seem to do well at this stage of cyclogenesis........
So for starters, we have one of the early HWRF runs on Ike in 2008:
We had the GFDL and GFS taking Alex this year into Louisiana:
And you know the story with Bonnie when the GFDL and HWRF took it into north Florida or Georgia, which was utterly ridiculous.
There are a few more examples but I don't have the time to dig around more. The point is they usually have a bias especially early in the storms's lifetime. I only pulled out the ones I could remember off the top of my head from the last couple years with big names.
If that's anti-NOAA.....lol so be it. Our US models have a problem. Period. They do better when they are locked on with the rest of the group and the situation becomes abundantly clear. The same thing is true with the CFS. The European models trash our's most of the time in a lot of things. It's just a simple fact.
i know. i'm just joking because so many people have been upset about the GW discussions. i've tried to calm a few really angry ones by reminding them that it's the docs blog adn it's weather related, so we have to deal.
it's just funny because for the past 2 days all they wanted was something to watch and the blog to update. finally it did due to the wave - something to watch. then bam, he ends the update with GW. but you are right, it is weather news, that's why we can't get mad about it. it's still pretty funny though.
I can see 10 is just October
This...
Quoting hurrkat05:
guys you need to calm down and quit yelling if someone uses caps so the hell what i see people use them all the time...you guys are just going to have to realize this is going to be a very slow hurricane season so live with it...quit acting like a bunch of losers and blaming it on the NHC and DR MASTERS...grow up man whatever happens you sure are not going to change it so live with it and grow up..
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 — Blog Index