95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004
AFTER LOOKING RAGGED THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A BAND WRAPPED AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
FRANCES WITH 35 KT WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM
48-96 HR...AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS VERIFIES...
IT WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...AND THEN
POSSIBLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND WEST OF ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 72-96 HR...WITH THE ONLY SEEMING NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE
DRY AIR SURROUNDING FRANCES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND TRENDS...THEN CALL
FOR FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH.
AFTER 72-96 HR...IF THE CYCLONE TRACKS AS FAR NORTH AS
FORECAST...IT MAY ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO LIE EAST- WEST ALONG 18-19N. THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. A
CONTINUING ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE CYCLONE STAYS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW GREATER STRENGTHENING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 11.6N 40.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 12.0N 42.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.9N 46.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 14.9N 48.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 52.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W 80 KT
$$
NNNN
Ridging.
plz make your point
SAME TRACK
shear got this taken care of tonight
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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
NNNN
On August 21st through the years. The numbers in the brackets indicate the season's activity:
1995 - 7-3-1 (19-11-5)
1996 - 4-3-1 (13-9-6)
1997 - 5-2-0 (8-3-1)
1998 - 3-0-0 (14-10-3)
1999 - 3-1-0 (12-8-5)
2000 - 4-2-1 (15-8-3)
2001 - 3-0-0 (15-9-4)
2002 - 3-0-0 (12-4-2)
2003 - 5-3-0 (16-7-3)
2004 - 5-3-2 (15-9-6)
2005 - 9-4-2 (28-15-7)
2006 - 4-0-0 (10-5-2)
2007 - 5-1-1 (15-6-2)
2008 - 6-2-1 (16-8-5)
2009 - 3-1-1 (9-3-2)
2010 - 3-1-0 (n/a)
Average by August 21st (1995 - 2009) - 4.8-1.4-0.7
Climatology (1966 - 2009) - 3-1-0
Average after August 21st (1995 - 2009) - 10-6-3
Average after August 21st of the two analog years from the sample (1998 & 2005)- 16-10.5-4
CSU forecast - 18-10-5
Analog years post-August 21st average plus observed - 19-11.5-4
FOOD FOR THOUGHT.
28w, 84w?
RGB LOOP
SAB still has it at 1.5..
TAFB at 2.0
** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC
00HR 16.3N 115.1E 1002HPA 14M/S (30 knots)
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 112.4E 994HPA 20M/S (40 knots)=
--
94W
regards
KOTG.
Viewing: 1701 - 1751
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