95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yup, I'm not wishcasting, but I would not be surprised to see at least one storm this season shoot the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan. Once it does that we all know that someone is going to be in a hurt locker.
At least for us in PR we are safe, this thing won't be any threat to Caribbean. Another Fish...
When you compare 3 hrs prior to the current layers the trough over the Great Lakes has actually lifted to the North some. I don't know if this is temporary or not but if not this could make a big difference to the track downstream. Something to watch.
If you also look into the Caribbean you will see that the SW corner of the steering high has pushed deeper into the Caribbean and now does not turn until the Barahona peninsula in Haiti.
Current
3 Hours ago
Willing to bet your life on that?
The only thing that eased me a bit was I compared Frances to TD 6/Danielle's coordinates as TDs, and 6/D is about 6 degrees east of where Frances was. But I still don't need any talk of ridging or a blocking high beating out these trofs.
yes kmanislander we need to watch it closly
Which model is showing the loop?
Yes that is called SMO -- Storm Model Oscillation
Thank you.
shift to the right
and you do the hokey pokey and you turn yourself around
that's what it's all about
perhaps they were also speaking of weather, along w/life, when this song was created
06L/TD/D/XX
MARK
12.23N/35.13W
Nice collision of a cheer and the hokey pokey.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
I had some freinds of mine one day say they were going to see this band call Lynard Skinard
we never heard of them before who would name a band that well glad i didnt miss it long story short.
Uh-oh.........
I ran the WV loop and the ULL appears to be retrograding to the WNW just slightly North of due West. It may not have as great an impact on the high as expected.
All of these pieces of the puzzle are evolving. We'll just have to wait and see where they all finish up relative to the system and how strong it is at the time.
Too many variables for me to work with and even the models sometimes struggle as they are essentially trying to move huge bits of data around like pieces on a chess board with a view to determining where they will all be at a certain point in the future.
In many instances mother nature changes one or two bits of that data unexpectedly and then everything else starts to change as well, sometimes with little warning.
You going to book it?
11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 22
Location: 12.7°N 34.1°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
12.1N....33.4W
Now at....
12.7N and 34.1W
Moved.6N and .7W. Almost a true NW movement.
Viewing: 3051 - 3101
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