95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 — Blog Index
Decoupling is when the upper-level convection and lower-level circulation separate, causing the LLC to be dry and exposed.
Updated 1515UTC floater on it. COC is moving almost due north...near 13N now...convection continues to get further away.
thats incorrect actually, decoupling is when the circulations and different levels become fractured and are no longer stacked with each other, as in the LLC going in one direction and the MLC going another.
GFS showed a low drifting in the GOM, then at the end of the run a Pacific system entering the GOM via Tehuantepec.
Edit: I should rephrase this. Ultimately the CoC will be in a mean position north south in the vorticity before heading west. It may very well be the CoC we see now or a new one. Regardless, there will be consolidation and a westward motion later today into tonight.
I encourage you to page back about 24 hours using the -3 hours button here. You'll see the vorticity rotate to a more north-south orientation
850 Vorticity
12z GFS Hour: 030
12z GFS Hour: 036
12z GFS Hour: 042
I am no expert but from being on here the last five years, usually the two go hand in hand.
OK, the circulation itself is not decoupling, but the CONVECTION is "decoupling" from the circulation. The convection is drifting W, while the circulation is heading NNW.
Too grainy and spends my traffic.
Probably not going to end well for TD-6 after this is done.
The models have a longer time horizon and draw conclusions based upon the data input prior to the run. The current motion is expected to be a short term one BUT if it takes the center appreciably further North than forecasted then the new center position will go into the next set of model runs and may result in a shift to the right.
What you are seeing in the satellite imagery is within half an hour generally of being real time. Data in the last set of model runs is several hours old.
Because the ridge is supposed to build in stronger than previously thought, possibly preventing the system from recurving
Exactly
STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
to me in the long run, this is a bad thing as the models continue to trend westward, a weaker system may not recurve at all
Good point. I'll give you a "+" for that post!
Exposed like UM's football team?
its official, the 2010 season has worn them down
As Ike reminds us 2010 is still at 3/1/0.
Maybe the center will merge with the NE component convection.
north easterly wind shear of 30 knots. Wind shear is the difference in winds between altitude levels and works to 'rip apart' the storm. It is forecast to drop in 24 hours. TD 6 will not be going away!
At 15-16N and moving WNW
Maybe it's the dry air to its east and slight shear from the circulation over the northeastern component.
Off to do some "outdoor " stuff.
Will be back later.
Exposed like UM? Except for a wide receiver or two, the gators have nothing. Now if you really want to get into it, how about all the transfers?
Maybe the two convective areas will merge around the circulation as it heads in between the two, and then the strengthening wave behind it pushes the whole storm farther south.
next you will be accused of downcasting
Regardless its not exactly having a great day.
This will slow the development process down.
Plus its still going to have problems with these other systems, so close to it.
If that happens and we have two or even three COCs, then we could be looking at a fujiwara and merge that causes the storm to become an annular hurricane.
Viewing: 3251 - 3301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 — Blog Index