Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico
An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.
Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.
Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.
Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.
Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop
97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.
Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.
Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.
The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yes i think they where but there not there now has they did other pass and still found a 955mb
I don't want to bash the NHC either. But when people keep saying that the NHC "nailed the track with this one," and that track keeps shifting, I tend to wonder why they don't call it as it is. Sure, the NHC has the track right now, this minute, but they didn't before and they may not tomorrow either. It is weather, not an exact science at all.
Probably because your basis uses no facts, no science, and no logic. Pure fear-mongering and speculation
sheesh
Living in Dover, Nh as I do and the track of 100 miles off the coast holds true, what kind of winds can we expect. this past Feb we got slammed with 90 mile winds from Nor'easter and lost power for 3 whole days (got damn cold) Are we looking at that kind of WIND GUSTS
Not looking for definite, just guestiments
Flight level winds, not surface.
5 days out has a cone of error of more than 300 miles - right :) Earl did not landfall in the antilles - so looks like a good call to me.
damn herbert box
The SLOSH data goes up to Maine.. but I'm sure the Canadian Hurricane Center has got to have models...
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/
Hey, Earl is already moving WNW, will certianly miss Puerto Rico - by a good shot and "hopefully miss the East coast", in which FLorida is not really of concern. Not even a remote need to panic at this point.
The scary part to me is the 30 mile error they have made in just 3 hours.
The last advisory took it over the 65 at the 20.
Now it is passing the 65 at 19.5.
It's likely going to pass 10 miles south of that point too.
That's the rumor...
No, because I was only referring to the US. The Canadian Maritimes have a much greater chance of being directly affected by Earl.
Does "show all" work ?
118kts is CAT 4 hurricane.
It will be CAT 5 in the next 24h according to NHC 7% but looking this maybe 20%
On the filter on the top right simply select SHOW ALL.
Sorry mate, but it's still considered a strike. A few of those islands were stuck in the eyewall for hours on end as well.
Don't downplay the fact that its eye didnt pass overtop of an island to say it's not a landfall.
Thanks for that...pretty high considering the distance yet...the wind field is indeed expanding still.
See im glad u understand this
Thanks for the post of the WU radar I asked for!
My late reply is due to being the phone for over 1/2 hour with American Express...
sorting something out.
...I guess they don't want me to be blown away without it.
heh heh
CRS
i have been saying this all along sou fla people go out and get your supplies while you still have time...this is going to be a cat 5 folks it will do lots of damage please get prepared..
KatrinaKat5-
Please take a chill pill!!! Thank you
Earl is making it's turn right now....Fl. is not getting hit with this storm....
Yes re: timing ... and as he strengthens he will need a stronger tug. The tug is not forecast to be all that strong by tomorrow evening.
E-Wall 12Z GFS, CMC, Navy 36 hours out ... top row
Thought so, translates to roughly 120 on the surface.
Outer bands starting to hit puerto rico
15:28:00Z 18.817N 63.750W
Earl is not a threat to any part of Florida.. people are wishcasting. IMO
I live in Charleston... I'm not running around waving my arms in circles telling folks to prepare or flee. Anyone who lives in a coastal area should be aware of what is going on in the tropics. If they don't make the choice to prepare, that is the choice they made. You can't change that. Calm down, relax, breathe. Do not be the harbinger of destruction.
No you arent getting it- everyone has HEARD you, but noone is LISTENING to you. Reason is you are guessing-using no data/history, etc. Enough already
Top of the comments entry .... set your filter to show all.
If the current forecast track holds true then I don't think New Hampshire would see anything more than tropical storm force gusts, but again only a small deviation in track could change that a lot.
No.
Hurricane Watch - A weather watch issued for coastal areas when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24 to 36 hours
Hurricane Warning - A weather warning issued for coastal areas when there is a threat of hurricane force winds within 24 hours or less
The only two times he has been to port of track (say it that way instead of south) has been when its close to an island.
I realize this, I was just showing how absurd some of the forecasts are, I dont remember the last time I saw people argue about where the landfall would be over such a large area like that
Thats kinda what i was seeing also though im no pro or even a met and no super computers
or planes "buttt" i still think it missed the boat sort of speak (imo)
Actually it's the opposite. A stronger hurricane is pulled northward more easily.
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