A significant ice storm is in progress across southeast Texas, much of Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and southern Arkansas this morning, as the latest onslaught from the memorable winter of 2010 - 2011 continues. Houston, Texas recorded 1/10" - 1/4" inch of ice so far from the storm, resulting in a crippling of that city's transportation system. Numerous crashes have closed many area roads, and flights at local airports have been largely halted. Snowfalls of 1 - 3 inches will occur today along the northern edge of the ice storm region, in a swath from northeast Texas to western Kentucky. The storm will move into New England on Saturday, but will not bring heavy snow. The next chance for heavy snow occurs next Wednesday and Thursday, when the GFS model is predicting the formation of a winter storm capable of dropping a foot of snow in the Appalachians and inland areas of New England. However, it is too early to put much faith in this forecast.
Figure 1. Trees snapped off along the Chicago lakefront by winds from the Blizzard of 2011. Image credit: viewer uploaded photo from WGN.
Revisiting the Chicago blizzard
This week's blizzard in Chicago dropped 20.2" of snow on the city, Chicago's third-greatest snowstorm on record. But the tremendous winds that accompanied the blizzard--gusting to 61 mph at O'Hare Airport, and 70 mph at the Lakefront--made the storm Chicago's worst-ever blizzard as far as impacts on travel. Another remarkable feature of the storm were the intense thunderstorms that developed. According to an excellent write-up on the storm posted by the Chicago National Weather Service office, the Blizzard of 2011 had 63 lightning strikes, and several reports of hail. The most extraordinary hourly observation I've ever seen in a U.S. winter storm came at 9:51pm on February 1 at Chicago's Midway Field: A heavy thunderstorm with lightning, heavy snow, small hail or ice pellets, freezing fog, blowing snow, visibility 300 feet, a wind gust of 56 mph, and a temperature of 21°F. Welcome to the Midwest! Thanks go to meteorologist Steve Gregory for pointing this observation out to me.
Figure 2. Snow amounts from the February 1 - 3 blizzard of 2011 peaked at over 2 feet along the shore of Lake Michigan between Chicago and Milwaukee. Strong northeasterly winds pulled moist air off of the Lake in this region, allowing the "lake effect" to enhance the blizzard's snows in this region. Image credit: Chicago National Weather Service office.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi the second most damaging storm in Australia's history
Tropical Cyclone Yasi has dissipated, but the damage totals from the storm make it Australia's second most expensive tropical cyclone of all-time, according to Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. The storm's $3.5 billion price tag is second only to Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, doing $3.6 billion in damage (2011 dollars.) Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time on Thursday as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. The cyclone missed the most populous cities on the coast, Cairns and Townsville, but damaged up to 90% of the buildings in the small towns near where the eye passed--Tully, Mission Beach, and Cardwell. A storm surge of 5.4 meters (17.7 feet) was observed at Cardwell, and there was substantial surge damage at the coast. Fortunately, the storm surge hit near low tide, resulting in a storm tide--the height of the water above land--of about 4.5 meters, more than 2 meters below what would have occurred had Yasi hit at high tide. Yasi moved quickly enough across Queensland after landfall so that major flooding was limited to just three locations near the coast. Yasi's central pressure of 930 mb at landfall made the storm the most intense recorded in Queensland since at least 1918, and possibly since 1899. In 1918, there were two cyclones (at Mackay and Innisfail) with measured pressures in the upper 920s/low 930s, but it is quite plausible that the minimum central pressures were lower than that. The 1899 (Mahina/Bathurst Bay) cyclone had a measured pressure (ship near shore) of 914 mb.
Figure 3. The tide gauge at Carwell, Australia during passage of Tropical Cyclone Yasi recorded a 5.4 meter (17.7') storm surge (red line). Since the surge came near low tide, the storm tide--the height of the surge above mean water--was only 4.5 meters (blue line). The storm tide would have been more than 2 meters higher had Yasi hit at high tide, and the damage from coastal flooding would have been huge. The green line shows the expected water levels at Cardwell due to the tide. Image credit: Queensland government.
Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 04:15 UTC February 3, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.
Jeff Masters
Digging out....over 20 inches of snow and drifts in the 3 to 5 foot range.
Snow Drifts in Central Missouri (
tucktan)
Looking outside our front door in Columbia, MO.
Ice dams are forming, not good for water infiltrating walls
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Snarky he may have been, but he raises a valid point.
That's true, in fact I think the Chevy gets way better on gas. Chevy actually gets on MPG what its advertised, Ford and dodge, as well as the Japanese brands like Toyota all get way worse on gas then my Chevy Silverado. I know people who own those other brands, they tell me, and Ive seen myself the other ones get about 10 mpg.I get around 16 city and 20 highway. Which is good for a 350 HP rugged truck.
If someday they make an electric Silverado that's just as powerful, heck I 'd be on board. I just have too must testosterone in my blood to buy silly prius hybrid. I wish we would replace the gas engine with better technology. However because I'm a realist, I don't freak out and let extinction of a species or glacial melts lessen my sanity, or the vehicle I drive.
dang that is super warm, where do you live again?
Here in Pinellas County, we had highs around 65, and drizzle all day. However we did pick up about 0.30, which came from a few 5 minute heavy rain showers.
I'm expecting more of the same tomorrow, followed by strong thunderstorms and heavy rain tomorrow night into Monday. The NWS is down playing it right now, but Models support some very impressive convection in Tampa bay. A couple local MET's recently promoted the possibility.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
18:00 PM FST February 6 2010
===============================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 23.1S 175.4W is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery with animations and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.
Gale Force Winds
================
clockwise winds of 35-40 knots within 60 to 180 NM away from the center in sectors from northeast through east to southwest
Low level circulation center is partially exposed. Organization has improved significantly in the past 6 hours. Convection has erupted in the past 6 hours mainly in the eastern flank. Primary bands trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 500 HPA. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a weak sheared environment. Global models are gradually developing the depression and maintaining a south southwest track.
The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is HIGH.
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Looks like our latest from the Fiji area is going places...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
2:00 PM WST February 6 2011
=====================================
A weak low pressure system is expected to develop well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast later today. The low is expected to develop slowly and begin moving west southwest over the next few days.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
My car is a 1995 Chevy that now has 56,000 miles on it. I get about 23 miles per gallon, and say a little prayer every time it starts up. If I had the means I'd get a new car, but for now all I can do is thank heavens I have what I have.
Last night here on Cape Cod we had severe thunderstorms and wind. The collision of warm air with the cold has finally brought a melt to some of the ice that has covered the ground for days. It's been a skating rink for everyone getting in and out of their homes, 2ndary roads, and parking lots. Lots of elderly people falling and getting hurt, and quite a few younger folks too, but the danger to the elderly has been the greatest.
The Trades are finally building with a strong atlantic H forecast the next week. They have been weak most of the winter as the troughs from the storms over CONUS have eroded the ABH as fast as it develops. Right now most of the MDR is covered with 25-30+knt wind. We are getting low level showers from the heat and moisture the Atlantic is shedding every few hours here in the islands.
So how much heat gets released and how much warmer water gets blow west, right now it is all piled up in the Cape Verdes area, in the next 2 months is really going to affect the season later.
The GFS has the ABH strong for the next http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif
The Columbian Low and ITCZ is forecast to be strong which will help tighten the gradient and make for stronger winds=more heat loss.
So how this plays out is yet to be seen..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAKA (10F)
0:00 AM FST February 7 2011
==============================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Zaka, Category One (995 hPa) located at 24.2S 176.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.
Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in sectors from northwest through east to southeast
180 NM from the center elsewhere
Organization remains good. Primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Cyclone steered west southwest by deep layer mean wind into a moderately sheared environment and cooler sea surface temperatures.
Dvorak assessment based on 0.70 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0 PT=3.0 MET=3.0.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
Global models agree on a southwest track with little intensification.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.3S 178.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.9S 179.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 35.3S 179.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical cyclone disturbance from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:00 PM UTC February 6 2011
=============================================
NWP models are going go on deepening two lows for the next 3 days within the ITCZ, the first low north-east of Madagascar, the second one at the extreme East of the basin. North-East of Madagascar, last available model forecast outcomes are in good agreement for the timing of the beginning of the
cyclo-genesis at 24 to 48 tau. But forecast location of the system is rather spread by the models : CEP and UKMO develop a low west of 60E, and Arpege and Aladin develop it East of 60E.
Most of the available NWP models don't deepen significantly the low at the extreme east of the basin during the next 3 days.
For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is poor. It becomes fair for the next 48 hours and good for the next 72 hours, north-east of Madagascar.
Cyclone Zaka
Really severe thunderstorms and wind? I wasn't aware any of that going on last night up there wow!
I have a 1998 Chevy Silverado Z71 4X4 with all the off road upgrades. It has 126,000 miles on it. It runs just as great as a new car and that's no exaggeration, even all the power windows and stuff still work great!
I have beaten a BMW in race with my old Chevy truck, gotta love it :) I'm amazed how fast it is for a truck to, the best piece of property Ive ever bought for $3500
Link
I did a pretty lengthy comment on Karl's TCR when it came out on Wednesday (and on Nicole's, which was released on Monday). That's all but two: Tomas and Igor--the two storms with both the most complex paths and the greatest damage. Just a week or two more, I'm sure...
Beautiful here in Naples; yet another 80-degree day is in the works (and one more tomorrow). I took the boat down the waterway and out into the Gulf yesterday afternoon; it was overcast, but the sun broke from beneath the shelf about five minutes before it set, setting the entire sky ablaze. That, some good friends, a nice breeze blowing the palm trees around, and a couple of dolphins feasting next to us in the inlet all made for a nice sunset. There are times I don't like it here--but yesterday wasn't one of them. ;-)
Momma always said, "Better a smart a$$, than a dumb a$$"
:)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6S
173.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, A 060126Z AMSRE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE ANALYZED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A 051600Z AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT CROSS SECTION
HINTS AT A DEVELOPING WARM CORE WITH A SMALL WARM ANOMALY CENTERED
AT AROUND 40K FEET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. DUE TO THE SEVERAL FACTORS NOW INDICATING THE DISTURBANCE
IS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE AND DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
Rainbow Image
plenty of dumb- and smart- a$$'s here! I was just hoping to make you smile- was not trying to be mean. I hope you did not take any offense.
No idea on the south pacific....heck I don't even know if it's gonna rain, till after i'm already wet.
I can read LOLcat
I can read almost anything!
Actually, Karl did much more damage that Igor and Tomas combined. 5.6 billion in damages.
Delivering you the latest conservative policy perspectives on today's news.
Now back to the Show.
In other news, the 00z ECMWF also depicts the development of yet another rather large and powerful tropical cyclone in the Australia region. Luckily, this one is forecast to develop over the southwestern Indian Ocean, near northwestern Western Australia, and move off towards the west or west-southwest before dissipating due to very dry air and relatively hostile upper level conditions over the open waters of the Indian ocean.
00z ECMWF at 120 hours:
None of you wannabe
bashers/haters can carry his briefcase...
Whats a briefcase?
Well, I was going by the numbers in the TCR, which listed damage at $206 million. I see the $5.6 billion figure on Wikipedia, but I'm not sure where it came from; I imagine that came from over-inflated preliminary numbers. (I know a rule of thumb for figuring actula damage is to double insurance damage estimates, but even that would still only take it to $412 million, less than 7% of the higher number. Hmmm...)
Having said that, I still believe Karl will be one of the three names retired this year, with Tomas and Igor being the other two.
It's not "bashing" or "hating" to hold a forecaster's feet to the fire, especially one who couldn't do much worse by flipping a coin. Heck, the NWS is constantly being "bashed" by lots of people--most vociferously by Bastardi himself.
The main point to keep in mind is this: if Bastardi can't be trusted to make a good weather forecast--something he's trained to do--why would anyone trust him to make long-term predictions about climate--something for which he is most definitely not trained?
;-)
6 Feb, 2011, 07.50PM IST,PTI
14 killed and over a million affected in Sri Lanka floods
COLOMBO: At least 14 people were killed and over one million affected by fresh floods across Sri Lanka , inundating homes, roads and agricultural land for the second time within a month.
A total of 1053,499 have been affected due to floods in several parts of the country, the Disaster Management Centre said today.
A similar number of persons were affected and 300,000 left homeless in the flooding early last month which also claimed at least 43 lives, prompting the United Nations to make a global appeal to raise USD 51 million as an emergency fund for flood victims.
The latest flooding has affected almost the same areas devastated by the earlier flooding, displacing 237,000 people.
The displaced people have been accommodated at 653 temporarily camps set up in high lands in the flood affected areas.
Schools in eastern province and part of the northern province have been closed till Wednesday next week, officials said.
Around 40 naval units and at least 7 military helicopters have been deployed to assist flood victims in northern and eastern province, areas where badly affected by the floods this time.
Officials have asked the public to refrain from visiting UNESCO heritage city of Anuradhapura as roads are damaged and made inaccessible by floods.
I'm using a different computer today, and it's different day, different computer, same problems with the new setup.... so I'll be in and out while getting that resolved.
Anybody seen a forecast track map for Zaka?
Winds have increased here, easterly at 22 mph with higher gusts.
Swell warnings to 3-4 meters in open waters for the next few days as well.
Temp 88F currently
Humidity 58% currently
It sure feels like a DrySeason day. Some WV out in the Atl along the ITCZ, but not much.
Real nice weather, actually.
A Court action that only lasts a few moments???
I believe Kman would have enjoyed dat un too.
46% are not too happy.
Not good numbers, for a project that took 2 years to do, IMO.
I hope that they can get it right before June 1.
If it took them 2 years to create this mess, just think if they had had 3 years.
Here's the latest Fiji surface analysis:
Yeah, I agree.
I am stuck on the old one for now.
I cannot deal with the soft lettering on the new, for one thing..
I keep a classic tab open for nostalgia though
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