A significant ice storm is in progress across southeast Texas, much of Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and southern Arkansas this morning, as the latest onslaught from the memorable winter of 2010 - 2011 continues. Houston, Texas recorded 1/10" - 1/4" inch of ice so far from the storm, resulting in a crippling of that city's transportation system. Numerous crashes have closed many area roads, and flights at local airports have been largely halted. Snowfalls of 1 - 3 inches will occur today along the northern edge of the ice storm region, in a swath from northeast Texas to western Kentucky. The storm will move into New England on Saturday, but will not bring heavy snow. The next chance for heavy snow occurs next Wednesday and Thursday, when the GFS model is predicting the formation of a winter storm capable of dropping a foot of snow in the Appalachians and inland areas of New England. However, it is too early to put much faith in this forecast.
Figure 1. Trees snapped off along the Chicago lakefront by winds from the Blizzard of 2011. Image credit: viewer uploaded photo from WGN.
Revisiting the Chicago blizzard
This week's blizzard in Chicago dropped 20.2" of snow on the city, Chicago's third-greatest snowstorm on record. But the tremendous winds that accompanied the blizzard--gusting to 61 mph at O'Hare Airport, and 70 mph at the Lakefront--made the storm Chicago's worst-ever blizzard as far as impacts on travel. Another remarkable feature of the storm were the intense thunderstorms that developed. According to an excellent write-up on the storm posted by the Chicago National Weather Service office, the Blizzard of 2011 had 63 lightning strikes, and several reports of hail. The most extraordinary hourly observation I've ever seen in a U.S. winter storm came at 9:51pm on February 1 at Chicago's Midway Field: A heavy thunderstorm with lightning, heavy snow, small hail or ice pellets, freezing fog, blowing snow, visibility 300 feet, a wind gust of 56 mph, and a temperature of 21°F. Welcome to the Midwest! Thanks go to meteorologist Steve Gregory for pointing this observation out to me.
Figure 2. Snow amounts from the February 1 - 3 blizzard of 2011 peaked at over 2 feet along the shore of Lake Michigan between Chicago and Milwaukee. Strong northeasterly winds pulled moist air off of the Lake in this region, allowing the "lake effect" to enhance the blizzard's snows in this region. Image credit: Chicago National Weather Service office.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi the second most damaging storm in Australia's history
Tropical Cyclone Yasi has dissipated, but the damage totals from the storm make it Australia's second most expensive tropical cyclone of all-time, according to Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. The storm's $3.5 billion price tag is second only to Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, doing $3.6 billion in damage (2011 dollars.) Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time on Thursday as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. The cyclone missed the most populous cities on the coast, Cairns and Townsville, but damaged up to 90% of the buildings in the small towns near where the eye passed--Tully, Mission Beach, and Cardwell. A storm surge of 5.4 meters (17.7 feet) was observed at Cardwell, and there was substantial surge damage at the coast. Fortunately, the storm surge hit near low tide, resulting in a storm tide--the height of the water above land--of about 4.5 meters, more than 2 meters below what would have occurred had Yasi hit at high tide. Yasi moved quickly enough across Queensland after landfall so that major flooding was limited to just three locations near the coast. Yasi's central pressure of 930 mb at landfall made the storm the most intense recorded in Queensland since at least 1918, and possibly since 1899. In 1918, there were two cyclones (at Mackay and Innisfail) with measured pressures in the upper 920s/low 930s, but it is quite plausible that the minimum central pressures were lower than that. The 1899 (Mahina/Bathurst Bay) cyclone had a measured pressure (ship near shore) of 914 mb.
Figure 3. The tide gauge at Carwell, Australia during passage of Tropical Cyclone Yasi recorded a 5.4 meter (17.7') storm surge (red line). Since the surge came near low tide, the storm tide--the height of the surge above mean water--was only 4.5 meters (blue line). The storm tide would have been more than 2 meters higher had Yasi hit at high tide, and the damage from coastal flooding would have been huge. The green line shows the expected water levels at Cardwell due to the tide. Image credit: Queensland government.
Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 04:15 UTC February 3, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.
Jeff Masters
Digging out....over 20 inches of snow and drifts in the 3 to 5 foot range.
Snow Drifts in Central Missouri (
tucktan)
Looking outside our front door in Columbia, MO.
Ice dams are forming, not good for water infiltrating walls
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I'm biting my tongue and sitting on my typing fingers.....
I thought if you want change then you are not a conservative--unless you want to change things back to the way they were.
I smell carrots!
Thanks for the link; here it is again
Subsidies
I had been wondering what the correct figure for oil and gas subsidies is in the US and that number is believable.
Much of that is royalty relief
Royalty relief
Exxon and Kerr McGee (successfully) sued to keep their royalty relief, others surrendered it, since, as the article says, "Under the current environment, we don't need royalty relief."
Now, you are correct; we need to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies NOW (the IEA, International Energy Agency, also agrees).
0.5% of oil and gas is subsidized (get rid of it, I agree, and am in the business)
6.7% of coal is subsidized. Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel. Please stop this.
A quarter of ethanol (nearly 5 billion dollars a year) is subsidized and even Al Gore has seen the light and repented of this nonsense that he helped to bring about.
But now let's get to the bottom of this.
We also need to get rid of the LIHEAP program.
True to form, Congressional Republicans are targetting the 2 billion or so low income weatherization program and are not targeting LIHEAP...
But if you want to address AGW and stop subsidizing wasteful fossil fuel use...
Put 5 billion into low income weatherization and end LIHEAP (and still save 2 billion bucks).
BTW, wrt to the debt, the Texas Comptroller, whose office wrote that report, did run for governor in 2006 warning the state that it sat on a ticking time bomb... she was correct.
What did one snowman say to the other snowman?
I smell carrots!
:)
Thank you. I will pass the pain along.
Seems this brush with winter is turning into a longer-lasting event in the Norman Forecast Area as well. In the first go round, you got a lot more snow than I did. Your 20" was record-setting!
My parents always tell me about WW II and the conservation measures that occurred :).
I suppose it is a change from our societal ethos of waste, consumption, and out-of-control debt (the conservative version known as "borrow and spend").
All from Ex-TC Anthony that hit Bowen(just south of Townsville) on Sunday night.
I'm sorry to admit it, but that is funny!
lol.
What do you get if you cross a parrot and a centipede?
A walkie talkie.
A kid gave his teacher a blank piece of paper.
Teacher: What is this?
Kid: It's a drawing of a cow eating grass.
Teacher: (looked at the paper) Where's the grass?
Kid: The cow ate all of it.
...Teacher: (looked at the paper again)Then, where's the cow?
Kid: It left because there was no more grass.
Gro, it's just like my daughters tell me... if you try to ban hair dryers for environmental reasons only criminals will have them.
My, we've gone from weather experts to 2nd class Las Vegas Lounge acts with one liners. LOL I knew I liked you people for a reason.
LMAO.
Ps. Love the duck joke, Amy. How's the weather in So. California?
Not necessarily.
Yasi is going to dump 400mm+ on the border area of Northern territory and South Australia, she will then move through S.A and then cross into SW Western Australia then combine with a cold front and all that moisture will then be pushed towards Victoria and Southern New South Wales.
Some areas of Victoria, includig Melborne had almost 100mm in less that 30mins, hence the flash flooding you reported earlier.
It's a strong possibility as long as the AO is positive. Stronger trade winds almost always result.
A negative NAO results in weaker trade winds because the Azores High is weaker, and thus SSTs generally get warmer, which is what we had last winter.. A positive NAO/AO (which we have right now) strengthens the high and thus the trade winds, cooling SSTs by evaporation and upwelling.
Would someone explain what the system off the northwest conus is forecast to do?
Do you have this link. Thought you might find it interesting. Looks like a difficult season coming up to predict. Just published a few days ago.
Link
Not usually. The typical AO patterns over the North Atlantic fluctuate much more strongly with tropospheric signals. The correlation between 70N-90N 10mb temperature and 1000mb height is insignificant in the north Atlantic, but is very significant in the tropics, where the strength of the stratospheric vortex is negatively correlated with the ENSO.
It's just a little bit funny how they are now blaming the negative AO for melting sea ice, when just a few years ago it was the positive AO being blamed, and models predict the AO to become increasingly positive with time.
is it made with sunshine, unicorns and fairy dust
I don't recall that they ever positively identified a negative AO as being the sole cause of melting sea ice. But it was around the same time, the Arctic dipole anomaly was first introduced. Do you think the combination of the Arctic dipole anomaly and the simultaneous La Nina could be responsible for the current winter anomalies? The combination of the two could really cause problems.
Well yes indeed a negative AO combined with a La Nina can result in a ridiculously cold winter for the continents in the mid-latitudes where most of the world's population lives. The last 2 winters have been a testament to what that pattern can do.
You probably have enough to read, but let me know what you think of this article. You don't have to read it now. Just drop a note on the blog.
Link
Issued at 1351 on Friday the 4th of February 2011
More heat for Sydneysiders but relief in sight
Sydney's current spell of hot weather will extend into the weekend, but there is
relief in sight.
"Saturday will be very hot across Sydney with temperatures into the forties in
many suburbs with a very warm night to follow, but cloudy conditions on Sunday
and a cooler southerly change during the afternoon will provide welcome relief
from the heat," said Barry Hanstrum, Regional Director of the Bureau of
Meteorology in New South Wales.
"By Monday the daytime temperatures will be close to the overnight temperatures
Sydneysiders have been suffering this past week."
This week minimum temperature records have been set at a number of locations
across Sydney. February records were broken at Richmond [24.9°C, 72 years of
record] and Bankstown [26.0°C, 43 years of record].
Records have also been set for successive hot nights. For example, Observatory
Hill has had an unprecedented three nights, and Richmond two nights, above 24°C.
The prolonged heat has been due to a hot northerly airstream coupled with high
humidity, cloudy nights and high ocean temperatures.
Dr Wayne Smith, NSW Health Director of Environmental Health, said people should
consider the risk of heat-related illness.
There has been an increase in emergency department attendance for heat-related
illness in Sydney over the past few days.
"People should take simple precautions to ensure they stay healthy in the heat
by staying well hydrated, avoiding alcohol and hot or sugary drinks, limiting
your physical activity and trying to stay out of the sun during the hottest part
of the day.
"If you can, it's a good idea to spend some time in an air-conditioned building.
"Signs of heat-related illness include confusion, dizziness, fainting, nausea,
vomiting, weakness, headaches and loss of sweating," Dr Smith said.
"People showing any of these signs should seek urgent medical attention through
their GP or local emergency department.
Kinda Microburstish? :)
Obviously.
Wind direction also has an impact on loss.
Dunno. Just weird. Thought the strongest winds would have been consistently off Lake Michigan, perhaps backing a bit.
Okay, I see a ghost-like figure with one arm raised.
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