Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Data from the country's Geonet network of around 1,200 GPS monitoring stations suggest a large displacement following the massive quake.
Dr Roger Musson from the British Geological Survey (BGS) told BBC News the movement observed following the quake was "in line with what you get when you have an earthquake this big".
The quake probably shifted Earth on its axis by about 6.5 inches (16.5cm) and caused the planet to rotate somewhat faster, shortening the length of the day by about 1.8 millionths of a second.
How the Quake has moved Japan
My bad, guess it's a meltdown coming then
Really depressing... impacting scenes...
BBC
Posting because my work computer does not play mp4's
1820: The French ASN nuclear safety authority says the incident at the Fukushima plant could be classed as level 5 or 6 on the international scale of 1 to 7. It is currently rated at level 4.
Having worked for years at GE Nuclear in San Jose, CA as a Quality Assurance Engineer, I keep asking the same question: -CHow can you have a Japanese Nuclear Reactor containment explosion that blows the roof off the secondary steel-reinforced cement containment vessel, without having the primary steel containment vessel compromised? It seems implausible
If you go to the below webpage, youll see a basic BWR design schematic that is a wonderful graphic to use while answering technical questions.
My question is this. If one of the steam pipes feeding through the core of the steel containment vessel cracked or was breached from the hydrogen blast, could the plants be venting radiation into the air? The secondary cement containment is damaged, and the current rates taken at the gate on March 11, & March 14 show a significant rise in radiation.
www.nucleartourist.com
As with the first responders who rushed to the scene after the tragedy of 9/11, I would hate to see no one clearly explain the possibility of a breached containment vessel, and endanger the lives of military personnel and civilians rushing to help.
comment by karenw at 2:20 PM
www.bousai.ne.jp - Readings from the closest radiation monitoring site to Fukushima (Ibaraki) is showing levels far higher than any other site. While this reading isn't high in and of itself, it's also approximately 130 miles from Fukushima.
Chernobyl was a 7; TMI was a 5.
Evacuating Tokoyo is no small feat either.
Wind is 14 mph from the north on WU.
How many people live in Tokyo??
Nobody went nuts and said you were crazy--but the map was--and still is--a fake.
It claimed the tsunami wave was radiation.
According to the white house THIS MORNING, they said that no radiation fallout will affect the US including Hawaii..I think that was premature to state since winds change from day to day..we are of course following the weather models which do not have a 100% certainity in forecasting..Is Iodine in great supply in NA because if not..
No take on anyone, just posting comments on that site...
Wel all have the right to see different positions, analyse data and reach conclusions, thats all...
"Work resumed early Tuesday morning to inject seawater into a troubled reactor unit at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant after a steam vent of the pressure container was opened, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.
"Fuel rods became fully exposed again at the No. 2 reactor late Monday night after workers recovered water levels to cover half of them in a bid to prevent overheating, according to the utility."
It's not a fake, it's legit in the event if a worse case scenerio took place. How can it be fake? it's called necessary precaution and planning ahead
lmao it showed the jet stream winds carrying that stuff, not a radiation wave of water?!
Those workers are definitely heroes.
That'll work. We'd have everyone running from the west coast, digging fallout shelters, sunbathing on the west coast, doing heavy breathing exercises, worrying themselves to death, shouting "what, me worry?" and in general running around in circles.
No, I think taking the advise of those on this blog would be a very bad idea.
1844: Mikan in Tokyo writes: "There is a growing sense that the Japanese government is not telling us the true story. On one end, there is the Japanese media that plays down the nuclear drama and focuses on human drama, and at the other, the foreign media is up-playing the nuclear disaster. In my company I heard at least half the essential staff is being sent to Hong Kong, Singapore or even Sydney. I am preparing to leave Tokyo and/or Japan. So are many of my friends. There is a sense of deserting Tokyo as soon as possible.
250 not 25
Impact is proportional to the impulse which is density times velocity
The density ratio is about 800
SQUAWK.... how did you know what I was doing?
;)
Where did you find this information. I am so nervous y'all.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20102011
22:00 PM RET March 14 2011
==========================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 7 (1002 hPa) located at 12.0S 85.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 83.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.3S 82.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.0S 79.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.9S 76.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
=====================
Latest microwave and SCATT fix suggest that the system has slowed down over the last 6 hours and takes a more southwestward track. Overall pattern remains ill-defined with still an exposed low level circulation center removed to the northeast of deep convection. The ASCAT pass of 15:26z confirms the current intensity and shows that 30 knot near gale force winds exist locally close to the center over the northern semi-circle. Available numerical weather prediction models remains in good agreement for a west southwestward track within the next few days with a motion that should speed up a little bit later tonight or tomorrow. Tuesday night and Wednesday all models shows a weakness in the subtropical ridge south of the system. This pattern should allow a slow down of the motion. A more poleward track (not reflected in this forecast) is possible during this period. Tuesday and Friday, the highs rebuild to the southeast of the system that should allow a faster west southwestward track. At the end of the forecast period, a southward turn is likely as the system should move on the western edge of a subtropical ridge towards a strong high to mid level weakness.
Easterly wind shear remains the limiting factor for intensification. Wednesday, it is expected to decrease and so.. some gradual intensification is expected. Intensity forecast has been upgraded to the end of forecast period, but uncertainity is still great for this forecast (northeasterly win shear but good poleward outflow on the edge of an upper level ridge and sea surface temperature oooler towards the south). One should note that the latest STIPS output bring the system to hurricane strength at days 4-5.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
I knew you were multi-talented Amy, but wow... Running, building a fallout shelter, sunbathing, shouting, deep-breathing, AND worrying... all at once!
NRAamy: (n.) See "multi-tasking master"
Um, why are you "so worried"? You're in Japan?
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