Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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See, I suggested last night that the Japanese govt do the same and was told the roads were impassable..evidently they arent if the Chinese are getting their citizens out of harm ways..kinda reminds me of katrina..if people dont have the means to leave, then they wont..
The US, see US/Mexico border
Royston Chan and Tom Miles, Reuters / February 25, 2011
China has evacuated 12,000, or about one third, of its citizens from turmoil in Libya, many of them workers for Chinese-run projects in the oil-rich nation, official media said on Friday.
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The mass evacuation, supported by a Chinese naval frigate, is the latest test for a government that has encouraged firms to seek business across the developing world, often in conditions considered too difficult or poorly paid for Western firms.
Relieved workers arrived on a charter flight to Shanghai on Thursday. Some told Reuters they had been working at a university construction site in the eastern city of Tobruk that was attacked by armed looters.
IN PICTURES: Libya uprising
Local staff told them to leave the increasingly dangerous conflict pitting opposition forces against long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi.
"We were lucky because we managed to rent eleven cars and all 83 of us got in with our luggage. Then we made our way to the Egyptian border," said 33-year-old construction worker Mao Yanjun.
China's Ministry of Commerce has said 75 Chinese companies have operations in Libya, including the state-owned energy giant CNPC, parent company of PetroChina Co Ltd (0857.HK)(601857.SS).
"China has suffered large-scale direct economic losses in Libya, including looted work sites, burned and destroyed vehicles and tools, smashed office equipment and stolen cash," the ministry said in a statement on Thursday.
ROBBED BY GANGS
The statement said some Chinese had been injured but there were no reports of deaths.
Zhong Chenyun, a manager at Sinohydro, said he and his colleagues had been stranded and robbed.
"All I have left is what I am wearing. My personal and company goods that I brought to Libya were all robbed by gangs with weapons. Our safety could not be guaranteed," he said.
Nearly 1,000 Chinese crossed over into Tunisia on Wednesday, and a Maltese ship capable of carrying more than 2,000 people arrived to evacuate Chinese nationals from the port of Benghazi on Thursday. It is expected in Malta later on Friday, the state-run Xinhua news agency said.
In 2010, Chinese trade with Libya was worth $6.6 billion, a rise of 27 percent on 2009.
Vietnam said it had evacuated about 1,300 of its citizens from Libya out of 10,482 living and working there.
Vietnamese in unaffected areas of Libya would "try to continue to work and remain where they are", the state-run Vietnam News quoted the Minister of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs on Friday as saying.
Well at least they are trying..to sit back and not do anything would be condemning those people..I mean to tell people to stay at home and dont come outside is ridiculous,they dont have provisions or electricity so how could they survive in their own homes for who even knows how long..it should be a mandatory evacuation where the govt is assisting in traveling and shelter..
enjoy a new Blog Entry from Dr. Masters,,this one is now archived.
The recent 6.0magnitude quake was ~76miles/~122kilometres (nearly due)east of the Fukushima Daiichi(#1) and Daini(#2) nuclear powerplant sites.
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