Massive tornado outbreak kills 202; 100-year flood coming on Mississippi River
A stunning tornado outbreak of incredible violence has left at least 202 dead across the Eastern U.S.; injuries probably number over a thousand, with 600 injured in the town of Tuscaloosa alone. The tornadoes carved huge swaths of damage, completely flattening large sections of many towns, and damage from the storms is likely to be the greatest in history for any tornado outbreak. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 149 dead; at least 36 were killed in neighboring Mississippi. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 160 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT yesterday and 8am EDT today. At least 11 of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage from some of these storms appeared to be at least EF-4, and it is likely that there were multiple violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes. The death toll makes the April 27 - 28 outbreak the third deadliest tornado outbreak of the past 50 years, behind the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) and the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak (256 killed.)
Figure 1. Damage in Birmingham, Alabama from last night's tornado. Image posted to twitter.
Figure 2. Damage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama from last night's tornado. Image posted to twitter, photographer unknown.
Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado.
The 3-day total of preliminary tornado reports from this outbreak is 278, close to the 323 preliminary tornado reports logged during the massive April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak. That outbreak has 155 confirmed tornadoes so far, making it the largest April tornado outbreak on record. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401).
Figure 4. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8:15pm EDT April 27, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Tornado outbreak winding down today
Tornado warnings continue to be issued this morning along the cold front now pushing towards the Atlantic coast, and a tornado was reported at 7:35am EDT in McBee, South Carolina. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large swath of the coast, from Florida to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather. The high instability and high wind shear that triggered so many killer tornadoes yesterday is gone, and we should see only a few weak tornadoes today. No severe storms are predicted for Friday. Saturday has a slight risk of severe weather over Oklahoma and Texas.
Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Thursday, April 28, 2011.
Figure 6. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama yesterday. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.
Figure 8. Tornado near Empire, Alabama, moving rapidly down a hill.
Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.
Figure 9. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.
Record 100+ year flood expected on Mississippi River
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi, and is currently located in Iowa. When this floodwater pulse moves south of Cairo, Illinois over the next two weeks, it will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River, and create the highest flood heights ever recorded on the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began 100 or more years ago, at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river along this stretch. The records are predicted to begin to fall on May 3 at New Madrid, and progress downstream to Natchez by May 20. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, and it is possible that the Army Corps of Engineers will have to intentionally dynamite a levee at Birds Point and New Madrid, Missouri to protect the town of Cairo from flooding.
The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, is currently at 44', the 3rd highest flood in history. The river is predicted to crest on Tuesday very near the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:
(1) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(2) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(3) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975
(4) 43.50 ft on 02/16/1950
(5) 42.94 ft on 03/17/1997
The timing of the floods crests will depend upon a complex mix a factors, including how much rain falls over the next month, the possible influence of southerly winds holding up the floodwater pulses, the potential opening of flood control structures and reduction of flows from flood control reservoirs, and potential levee failures (no levee has failed on the Lower Mississippi south of the Ohio River junction since 1950, however.) The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 17 feet at New Orleans on May 22, three feet below the top of the levees. This would likely require opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans, to relieve pressure on the city's levees. Opening the spillway drains 250,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Lake Pontchartrain.
Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for the excellent update, Doc!
So many tragic events occurring these last 2 months...:(
of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama yesterday. Fast forward to
minute four to see the worst of the storm."""....
Incredible.
Hope we can get a break from severe weather soon.
What is amazing about this outbreak is how much was caught on video and broadcast live on TV.
Tuscaloosa, AL. Damage shown looking down 15th Street toward Home Depot.
Thanks for the information!
This pic is north of Cairo a few miles on the Mississippi.
for what it's worth: that is pronounced "Oh-ree"
New Facebook page re: Tornados
The rains have been awful in Arkansas, and our driveway has washed out. It was okay until the last rains Tuesday night. Ditto our county road. Evidently the water rushing downhill met water overflowing the small river at the bottom, and created some sort of maelstrom. Will try for pics later today.
I can't complain, though. The house is still here. :) Been through the death and destruction of an EF4, and my heart breaks for those people in AL. At least ours stayed mainly over rural areas - hitting two cities is unreal. It looks like they were bombed. And from experience, it will be months and years before life is back to normal there.
That's certainly true. I hope the videos will help those who study these monsters.
Two reported dead in Washington County, VA, which has taken the brunt of it around here; and we're afraid more bad news to come.
You didn't think I could stay away forever, did you (although you were probably hoping...)
000
FXUS64 KBMX 281158
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011
.UPDATED...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WOW...WHAT A DAY. MANY THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS GO OUT TO THOSE
IMPACTED BY WEDNESDAYS HISTORIC TORNADIC OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
STATE.
TRYING TO WRITE A DISCUSSION AFTER SUCH AN ACTIVE DAY IS QUITE
DIFFICULT. HOWEVER THE WEATHER NEVER ENDS AND WE MUST CONTINUE. THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE CLEAR...SO THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS CAN BEGIN
ACROSS THE STATE. WE ARE GOING TO GO FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS TO ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE VERY FAR APART IN
REGARDS TO THIS TIME-FRAME SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
TO SAY THE LEAST. THE EURO BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE FRONT UP AND BRINGS US SEVERAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKING BACK
AT PREVIOUS DAYS ABOUT THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS IS THE
FACT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO DISAGREE. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET SOME
CONSISTENCY IN HERE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ONE THING TO
NOTE...IF THE GFS PANS OUT WE COULD SEE A ROUND OR TWO OF STRONG
TO MAYBE EVEN SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
MODELS ARE JUST TOO LARGE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
Thanks for that, keith. Just heard from a friend who is attempting to get to NOLA via Amtrak that their train is not progressing past Birmingham. No word on the condition of the tracks and/or station in Tuscaloosa. He'd already re-booked his trip from the City of New Orleans to the Crescent because of flooding in downstate IL.
Horrible that over 100 died, but it could have been much worse. The SPC was on the ball with their forecast, and the NWS did a great job handling the load and putting out timely warnings. Now that the storms have passed, we need to focus on the needs of those most impacted, and getting them back onto their feet.
Wounder what it is going to look like once they let the media into the worst hit area. What were are seeing is where they are allowed to go so far.
34miles at 81.9degrees(E) from FukushimaDaiichi
The lone red dot represents centralTokyo.
Lest we forget, TEPCO wants to shore up reactor#4's cooling pool (loaded with recently hot fuel rods) with support columns lest a quake causes the structurally damaged building to drop that pool from its high perch to the ground.
that really got to me :(
Jim Cantore is on the outskirts of the worst hit areas of Tuscaloosa and he is showing brick buildings leveled which is EF4 damage.
This is heartbreaking to watch.
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