Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Saat: 03:25 PM GMT Tarih: 18 Mayıs 2011 +6
Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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701. kimoskee Saat: 04:07 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Quoting aspectre:
666 atmoaggie "Ha! The article says he looked "sad" and "confused" because the snow is gone. How do they know? What differences would indicate a happy polar bear?"



These could actually be Jamaican bears... just change the snow to sand and voila!!!! They're listening to reggae music and behind the bbq pit (you can't see the cooler) are red stripe beer...
Member Since: Ağustos 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
702. atmoaggie Saat: 04:15 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Quoting TomTaylor:
Have you ever owned a pet???

It's quite ridiculously easy to tell when an animal is happy or sad or in distress.
Of course. When they are used to being around people and you have been around that particular animal enough to recognize moods, that is easy.

I don't think either of those apply well to polar bears in the wild. They don't pur, smile, wag tails...
If you see a polar bear smiling at you, go ahead, see if he licks your face or rolls over for a belly rub once you start petting him.
Member Since: Ağustos 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
703. atmoaggie Saat: 04:16 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
golb wen
Member Since: Ağustos 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
704. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 04:17 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Quoting P451:


See ya all in a few days LOL
i posted that once only once maybe ya get lucky and it will slide on by
Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
705. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 04:26 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course. When they are used to being around people and you have been around that particular animal enough to recognize moods, that is easy.

I don't think either of those apply well to polar bears in the wild. They don't pur, smile, wag tails...
If you see a polar bear smiling at you, go ahead, see if he licks your face or rolls over for a belly rub once you start petting him.
i remember once when i was a boy with my grandfather them greenpeace fellas trying to save the seals did that that little pup grab his arm and was shaken the hell out of him then the momma came up the blow hole and started chasin em then someone yelled quick shoot and i heard someone say who the seal or the greenpeace fella in the end we got the seal and well that greenpeace fella we didn't see him anymore after that either and he did not dispute the fate of the seal either funny how one changes there mind when they become the victim
Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
706. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 04:27 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
so go ahead pet the polar bear good luck with that
Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476
707. VAbeachhurricanes Saat: 04:37 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Guys we are only 2 days away now, the suspense is in the air!
Link

I know its foxnews, blah, blah, blah. Its a funny article though.
Member Since: Eylül 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4799
708. MrMixon Saat: 05:11 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
I doubt anyone on this blog is genuinely concerned about the predicted doomsday this Saturday. But I'm providing this info anyway for your edu-tainment.

Here are the predicted doomsdays just for 2011:

Date ---------------- Source
April 6, 2011 -------- Marilyn Agee
May 21, 2011 -------- Electronic Bible Fellowship
May 29, 2011 -------- Marilyn Agee
October 21, 2011 ------ Electronic Bible Fellowship(among others)


There have been multiple predicted doomsdays every year since at least the 1990s. From the 1970s through the 90s there was at least one doomsday prediction nearly every year. As you look back in time before the 1970s the predictions are less and less frequent, but there are doomsday predictions dating all the way back to the time when Jesus was alive (and probably many before that).

Here's a great source for info about doomsday predictions:

From the Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Member Since: Mart 26, 2006 Posts: 38 Comments: 964
709. HurricaneDevo Saat: 06:16 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
This study is a stellar read for those interested. It really opens the eyes and goes into great detail.


There appears to be a significant decrease in hurricane landfalls during the neutral phase along the East Coast whereas compared to Florida. This would suggest that there is a dominant flow pattern during neutral years that tends to steer hurricanes toward Florida.


The only problem with this is that it focuses only on hurricanes, not tropical storms.
Member Since: Nisan 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
710. Chicklit Saat: 10:56 PM GMT Tarih: 19 Mayıs 2011    
Evening, folks.


There's always something good about something bad that happens; sometimes it just takes a while to figure that out.
Member Since: Temmuz 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10253

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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