Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Saat: 03:06 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.

Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)

Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.

Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)

Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11

Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)

814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.

Categories: Fire

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1451. pottery Saat: 06:10 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Thanks, Hurrycane and Levi. Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1452. Tropicsweatherpr Saat: 06:11 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting pottery: Thanks for 'heads up' on that, BROHAVWX. The Trinidad Radar is at www.metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx Thanks pottery for bringing the radar from there as I didn't have it. Member Since: Nisan 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8071

1453. TropicalAnalystwx13 Saat: 06:11 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Levi32: Texas would be very happy to see this if it pans out in 10-15 days. The ECMWF ensembles are indicating a break in the tropical ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. If any kind of tropical moisture moves into place in that region, it's possible that it could move up and give Texas some water. The GFS is consistent in showing some sort of low pressure area develop in that time frame. Member Since: Temmuz 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124

1455. plywoodstatenative Saat: 06:12 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
whaddaya mean Texas, we need the rain badly Member Since: Kasım 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1456. pottery Saat: 06:13 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: Tom Rush's interpretation is probably the most well known. Johny Cash did a fine take on it as well. Thanks. Will check them out. Dont know how it happened, but that one passed me by. Thought I had heard every Cash performance..... Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1457. Levi32 Saat: 06:14 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting plywoodstatenative: whaddaya mean Texas, we need the rain badly I can only help out one at a time lol. I tried with 94L, but it didn't want to track farther west. Member Since: Kasım 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

1458. pottery Saat: 06:15 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
. Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1459. TropicalAnalystwx13 Saat: 06:15 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Levi32: I can only help out one at a time lol. I tried with 94L, but it didn't want to track farther west. I'm not complaining, because I know we'll get our rain this season...we may end up with flooding by the end of hurricane season instead of drought. Member Since: Temmuz 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124

1460. pottery Saat: 06:17 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Thanks pottery for bringing the radar from there as I didn't have it. Its only been operational for a few months. Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1461. TropicalAnalystwx13 Saat: 06:19 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
The size of the Wallow fire now is approximately 694 square miles. Member Since: Temmuz 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25124

1462. ShenValleyFlyFish Saat: 06:21 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
It's a lazy Suunday afternoon. I'll take a chance on one more. Member Since: Eylül 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1463. pottery Saat: 06:23 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The size of the Wallow fire now is approximately 694 square miles. About half the size of this Country. Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1464. pottery Saat: 06:28 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: It's a lazy Suunday afternoon. I'll take a chance on one more. Love the "ping-pong pan" at the start there. Great old music. What is your Instrument of choice, Shen? Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1465. IceCoast Saat: 06:29 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Not sure if this has been posted as it's a few days old, but very interesting regardless. A strong heat wave hit Wichita Kansas shortly after midnight June 9th sending temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees. This 15 to 20 degree temperature jump took place in a matter of 20-30 minutes. The NWS there has a great write up and explanation of this. Link Member Since: Ekim 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

1466. GeoffreyWPB Saat: 06:30 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Is Grothar back from his racket brawl? It''s in the 90's down there. I worry about him. You know how those seniors get when things don't go their way. You should of seen him after a bingo game didn't go his way. Member Since: Eylül 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1467. pottery Saat: 06:32 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 06:32 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting pottery: About half the size of this Country. which means half of you would be left Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

1469. VAbeachhurricanes Saat: 06:32 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting IceCoast: Not sure if this has been posted as it's a few days old, but very interesting regardless. A strong heat wave hit Wichita Kansas shortly after midnight June 9th sending temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees. This 15 to 20 degree temperature jump took place in a matter of 20-30 minutes. The NWS there has a great write up and explanation of this. Link Thats really cool Member Since: Eylül 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797

1470. pottery Saat: 06:33 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: Is Grothar back from his racket brawl? It''s in the 90's down there. I worry about him. You know how those seniors get when things don't go their way. You should of seen him after a bingo game didn't go his way. I feel more sorry for the person who has to rush around pushing his wheelchair... Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1472. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 06:35 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: Is Grothar back from his racket brawl? It''s in the 90's down there. I worry about him. You know how those seniors get when things don't go their way. You should of seen him after a bingo game didn't go his way. nothing a good shot of geritol and some extra meds can't fix Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

1473. pottery Saat: 06:36 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: which means half of you would be left WHICH HALF OF ME ???? Oh, the Horrors at the thought! Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1474. GeoffreyWPB Saat: 06:36 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting pottery: I feel more sorry for the person who has to rush around pushing his wheelchair... LOL...He's gonna get you for that! Member Since: Eylül 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1476. GeoffreyWPB Saat: 06:38 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: nothing a good shot of geritol and some extra meds can't fix He sent me pics. No one got out without blotter injuries. Member Since: Eylül 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1477. pottery Saat: 06:39 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: LOL...He's gonna get you for that! Yeah. But thanks to Keeper, he will only have half of me to catch first. Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1478. ElConando Saat: 06:40 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Its Currently raining in South Dade! See if it can come over to my area. Member Since: Eylül 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1479. pottery Saat: 06:41 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: He sent me pics. No one got out without blotter injuries. Well, That should take the heat off me some.... heheheh Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1480. Jedkins01 Saat: 06:41 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting IceCoast: Not sure if this has been posted as it's a few days old, but very interesting regardless. A strong heat wave hit Wichita Kansas shortly after midnight June 9th sending temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees. This 15 to 20 degree temperature jump took place in a matter of 20-30 minutes. The NWS there has a great write up and explanation of this. Link Very interesting indeed! We covered this phenomenon in school, however, I have never seen such a dramatic example like that. Very interesting! Member Since: Ağustos 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

1483. spathy Saat: 06:43 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
I see my anti rain force-field is still extending over the river. Ft Myers radar. Link Click on interactive to remove the cone of silence. If you have never seen a rain shield in action. This is the place to see one. Member Since: Haziran 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10473

1484. AtHomeInTX Saat: 06:43 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Levi32: Texas would be very happy to see this if it pans out in 10-15 days. The ECMWF ensembles are indicating a break in the tropical ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. If any kind of tropical moisture moves into place in that region, it's possible that it could move up and give Texas some water. :) That sounds good. Member Since: Ağustos 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3871

1485. islander101010 Saat: 06:44 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
the little low tropical wave at 58w 22n is still spinning and in fact it seems alittle deeper this afternoon Member Since: Eylül 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2963

1486. pottery Saat: 06:44 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
See you guys and gals Anon... I am off to the Airport. To meet a Very Special Person. Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

1487. Jedkins01 Saat: 06:45 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Looks like the storm coverage for extreme South Florida is at least looking good. Now, all we need is for this to cover the rest of Florida everyday. Actually, we need some sort of disturbance to bring a good 6 to 12 inch widespread rains, and then scattered to numerous sea breeze storms each day like we normally get after. That may sound like a a lot to ask for but its something that we normally call normal wet season weather around here. We just need that normal to come back and replace this abnormal junk... Member Since: Ağustos 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

1488. IceCoast Saat: 06:47 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting alfabob: I bet it has something to do with this plume of heat that happened to pass over the area when it occurred. That shows the isolation of the heat wave quite nicely. It sure is an interesting phemonem . Per NWS this is what caused it. The burst of hot air in the middle of the night was likely the result of showers and storms which dissipated about 30 to 60 minutes prior to the heat burst being felt. The rainfall evaporated as high level air descended from the dying storms. This air compressed and warmed significantly as it descended...resulting in a hot blast of air at the ground. Environmental conditions with the presence of dry air aloft have to be just right to produce the rare occurrence of a heat burst. Do you guys know about chinook winds? Also very interesting and a good read! Link Member Since: Ekim 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

1489. Jedkins01 Saat: 06:47 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Its so weird that I had 13 inches of rain in the last week of March here, normally the heart of the dry season, yet sitting here in freaking mid June and everything is getting scary dry in what is normally the first rain season month... How weird. Member Since: Ağustos 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

1490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 06:48 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting alfabob: Since shear is so low and sst above average, there might be some activity this week without the aid of MJO. High pressure should be building back in soon and I can still see the LLC NE of PR and that wave moving into the east Caribbean. They just need to make it past the upper-level shear and then will have a chance to develop. only thing there is the V and we can see that scrap with system north of it about only thing out there for now nothing more nothing less what you expect its only day 12 already had lets see 90(mar) 91 92(april) 93(may) 94 cat4 (june) not bad steady as she goes full speed ahead Member Since: Temmuz 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

1491. Jedkins01 Saat: 06:49 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting IceCoast: That shows the isolation of the heat wave quite nicely. It sure is an interesting phemonem . Per NWS this is what caused it. The burst of hot air in the middle of the night was likely the result of showers and storms which dissipated about 30 to 60 minutes prior to the heat burst being felt. The rainfall evaporated as high level air descended from the dying storms. This air compressed and warmed significantly as it descended...resulting in a hot blast of air at the ground. Environmental conditions with the presence of dry air aloft have to be just right to produce the rare occurrence of a heat burst. Do you guys know about chinook winds? Also very interesting and a good read! Link Yeah I forgot to mention, that situation is very similar to chinook winds. Member Since: Ağustos 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

1492. stormpetrol Saat: 06:50 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Member Since: Nisan 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

1493. AussieStorm Saat: 06:51 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Hurrykane: Member Since: Eylül 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13249

1494. bohonkweatherman Saat: 06:55 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Jedkins01: Its so weird that I had 13 inches of rain in the last week of March here, normally the heart of the dry season, yet sitting here in freaking mid June and everything is getting scary dry in what is normally the first rain season month... How weird. Seems the U.S.A is either flooded or in drought or in Extreme drought? I do know the water temps in the Gulf off Texas are alot higher than normal because we have been 10 degrees above average for several months. All this heat and humidity coming thru Texas is a player in the weather elsewhere. Only difference is the Humidity in Texas is only at the lower levels, at the higher levels the air is bone dry. Not sure what it will take to change this? Strong tropical system maybe? Member Since: Temmuz 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1495. Jedkins01 Saat: 06:56 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting Levi32: The GFS ensembles are now again starting to show the kind of pattern that could lead to tropical mischief in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico during the last week of June. Ridging (green colors) over eastern North America, if far enough north, tends to incubate the tropical circulation cell to its south, and upward motion is being indicated in the west Caribbean by below-normal 500mb heights (blue colors). These heights are not low because of colder temperature, but because of upward motion initiating the release of latent heat into the upper troposphere, expanding the air column and lowering the 500mb height level. Great analysis! Lets hope that will mean weak tropical cyclones bringing heavy rain to Florida and Texas, as well as a consistent wet season pattern in Florida. Member Since: Ağustos 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

1498. Jedkins01 Saat: 07:02 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Seems the U.S.A is either flooded or in drought or in Extreme drought? I do know the water temps in the Gulf off Texas are alot higher than normal because we have been 10 degrees above average for several months. All this heat and humidity coming thru Texas is a player in the weather elsewhere. Only difference is the Humidity in Texas is only at the lower levels, at the higher levels the air is bone dry. Not sure what it will take to change this? Strong tropical system maybe? Yeah its ridiculous, we have that same issue here. But the same high pressure that's suppressing rain in Texas will also keep tropical cyclones away. What you guys and us Floridians need is a pattern change. Much of Texas is a dry state but far eastern Texas from what I know is much wetter and similar to Florida's subtropical climate, so imagine Houston is really suffering. South Florida is absolutely horrible, where they normally average 10 to 12 inches in June they are hardly getting anything. Florida is normally like a rain forest during the wet season, which is extremely crucial to our climate because like 75% of our rain comes during this period to help give Florida that jungle appearance. If we don't get torrential rains soon everything starts to burn. Member Since: Ağustos 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5321

1499. ShenValleyFlyFish Saat: 07:02 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Quoting pottery: Love the "ping-pong pan" at the start there. Great old music. What is your Instrument of choice, Shen? I mess around on the guitar some. I have a special spot for the steel drum because the first time heard it I was sitting in Washington Square Park, NYC. I heard this incredible music and went to find it. This fellow had set up under the replica Arc de Triomphe there and was playing his heart out. Was not busking as had no "hat" set out and waved me away when I pulled out a dollar. Found out later that he had a specific time he practiced there most days because he loved the acoustics of the arch and no one complained. I can find the large bands wearing after a while because though it is possible for the right builder to get one fairly much in tune with itself (this guy must have been special because he had made his own after arriving in NYC it rare for them to be in perfect tune with each other and the discordant tones tend to mute the bell like timbre which first attracted me to the instrument. I don't play it but in the right hands it is stupendous. Member Since: Eylül 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1500. AussieStorm Saat: 07:03 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
Windward Islands Weather info map. Member Since: Eylül 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13249

1501. Tropicsweatherpr Saat: 07:06 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2011
A couple of questions for Levi about the Gulf of Guinea vs hurricane season activity. Is every time the GOG gets cold, it turns active in the Atlantic and viseversa,when it warms,there is less activity? Or it has occured that even if it gets cold there, the tropical activity is not plenty? Member Since: Nisan 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8071

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