Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Saat: 03:06 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011 +5
The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke
Categories: Fire
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251. tropicfreak Saat: 09:36 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


here is a longer loop of that same area... kind of does look cool


Radar looks like little ripples of water that stones make when you drop it.
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253. NICycloneChaser Saat: 09:37 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I wonder if Adrian is just tightening the eye... it does not look like a collapse has occurred yet maybe a second bout of strengthening???


I think waters are just too cold at this stage for any increase in strength.

Though, under the circumstances, I'll stress that this is my opinion, and that I am not being abusive or threatening towards you. :-)
Member Since: Ağustos 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1956
255. Tazmanian Saat: 09:38 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Osmin:
taz pleez stik to da hurrikayns n da seezon we r in da midzt of



your in a mist of a tronado you have fun
Member Since: Mayıs 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312
256. NICycloneChaser Saat: 09:38 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting tropicfreak:


Again, he can't help that he is typing like that. Leave him alone please.


I was merely joking with him, I'm pretty sure he realised that.
Member Since: Ağustos 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1956
257. PcolaDan Saat: 09:38 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting presslord:
one is entitled to one's own opinion...but one is not entitled to one's own facts...


a politician ...... you are not
;-)
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258. HadesGodWyvern Saat: 09:38 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    


Date/Time: 2011JUN10 210100
CI: 1.6
Location: 23.1N 116.9E
Pressure: 1002.7/
Winds (kts): 26.0
Final T: 1.1
Adjusted T: 1.0
Raw T: 1.0
Scene: SHEAR
Member Since: Mayıs 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684
259. Thundercloud01221991 Saat: 09:38 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I think waters are just too cold at this stage for any increase in strength.

Though, under the circumstances, I'll stress that this is my opinion, and that I am not being abusive or threatening towards you. :-)


Dont worry I have done had my bouts of people threatening and harassing me on here... I know the difference
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260. NRAamy Saat: 09:39 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
lay off Taz....
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261. Tazmanian Saat: 09:39 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I was merely joking with him, I'm pretty sure he realised that,



i do
Member Since: Mayıs 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312
262. tropicfreak Saat: 09:40 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Osmin:
taz pleez stik to da hurrikayns n da seezon we r in da midzt of


You have mail
Member Since: Eylül 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
263. caneswatch Saat: 09:40 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Then direct the advice towards him, not everyone else.


I did direct it to him. Didn't you see it?

Quoting caneswatch:


Ignore and report Taz.
Member Since: Ekim 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
264. tropicfreak Saat: 09:40 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Hurricanes12:


But he can help not responding to trolls all the time.

I bet if he would have never responded to trolls, no one would be imitating him or making a mock of him.

I think people on this blog are upset at the nonsense that goes around here sometimes. I come here to learn and update myself with the subject that I enjoy educating myself about, as well as many other people here, and I don't think anyone enjoys these types of annoyances.

And people question why some important people that kept this blog going left and started to fend off on their own blogs and or other blogs.

Wouldn't be surprised if that would happen again during this season as well.



You have mail
Member Since: Eylül 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
265. jlp09550 Saat: 09:41 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
.
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266. NICycloneChaser Saat: 09:41 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting KoritheMan:


It only has about three or four days before it merges with a frontal zone. Thus, even if upper-level winds were to suddenly become more favorable, it would have very little opportunity to develop.


Yep, I think the shear is forecast to relax a little in 2-3 days, but it is only to relax for a short period of time, probably not enough time to develop even if it was going to be hanging around on its own for a while.
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267. Thundercloud01221991 Saat: 09:42 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
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268. shadoclown45 Saat: 09:42 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Ok now just to quote a great person " Cant we all be friends? Why can't we all be friends? Lets just all be friends." I swear now if you dont start talking weather ill destroy you by sending a noaa aircraft to pick you all up to go to the insane asylum you trolls/taz belong in. ps. Taz got nothing against you but dude leave it to the blog admins to take care of. Quoting trolls just makes it worse dude you should know you have more posts then me, but thats probally because i lurk... In the shadows.
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270. NICycloneChaser Saat: 09:42 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting caneswatch:


I did direct it to him. Didn't you see it?



My apologies, I completely misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were advising others to report Taz.
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271. Gearsts Saat: 09:43 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Today i havent been able to get and read some good info on the tropics like i always do with all the trolling. Please stop it ignore and talk about the good stuff ;). Sorry for my inglish
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272. PrivateIdaho Saat: 09:44 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
Rough crowd tonight!


Where's Pottery when you need him?
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273. caneswatch Saat: 09:44 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


My apologies, I completely misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were advising others to report Taz.


It's ok. I made an punctuation error, so I see the reason why you misunderstood.
Member Since: Ekim 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
274. Grothar Saat: 09:45 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Dont worry I have done had my bouts of people threatening and harassing me on here... I know the difference



That other was very good. What is the sign for plus?
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275. NRAamy Saat: 09:45 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
spudsly....

:)
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276. Thundercloud01221991 Saat: 09:45 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Actually looking over Adrian more in detail it does actually appear that the eyewall is collapsing there is a weakness developing within it on the western side... I would say that the wind speeds are down to 85-90 knts at the next advisory
Member Since: Ağustos 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3644
277. bappit Saat: 09:46 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting tropicfreak:
We have some painfully slow storms east of here in Richmond, there are also a lot of gust fronts, and as they move west, storms form in behind it. Kinda cool. And get this, the storms are moving east at 5 mph. Flood advisory is in effect for some of these storms.





yes, cool gust fronts. Thanks!
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278. caneswatch Saat: 09:46 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
I am away from home, so i'm going to go enjoy my visit in Hutchinson Island. Be back later, and play nice!
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279. NRAamy Saat: 09:46 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Grothar...any plans for the weekend? Lawn bowling?

;)
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281. NICycloneChaser Saat: 09:48 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Actually looking over Adrian more in detail it does actually appear that the eyewall is collapsing there is a weakness developing within it on the western side... I would say that the wind speeds are down to 85-90 knts at the next advisory


If the eyewall is collapsing then it is most probably on it's way out, I don't think it would be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.
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282. emcf30 Saat: 09:49 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
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283. PrivateIdaho Saat: 09:49 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting NRAamy:
spudsly....

:)
Check out my Avi...and yes I always dress like that and yes I grew that spud in my garden in about a day and a half.;^)
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284. presslord Saat: 09:49 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
we're gonna have pizza out on the beach...most of you are welcome to join us...bring your own beer...
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285. Thundercloud01221991 Saat: 09:49 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If the eyewall is collapsing then it is most probably on it's way out, I don't think it would be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.


I agree... I dont think it will be a hurricane by this time tomorrow.
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286. tropicfreak Saat: 09:49 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting Osmin:
It's ok cyclonechaser, i alreddy reportd taz four his pregudishal re marks


Did you read my wunderground mail that I sent to you, and there is no need for you to report him.
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287. KoritheMan Saat: 09:50 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting caneswatch:
I am away from home, so i'm going to go enjoy my visit in Hutchinson Island. Be back later, and play nice!


At least this isn't 2004. *points to Frances and Jeanne*
Member Since: Mart 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
288. Grothar Saat: 09:50 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting caneswatch:


It's ok. I made an punctuation error, so I see the reason why you misunderstood.



How many times have I told you about that? I guess now I will have to teach you how to use a semicolon.

Like this sentence could be misinterpreted.

Is it, you twit? Is it you, twit? See how that can cause confusion. Two totally different meanings.
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289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) Saat: 09:51 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
empty space being created
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290. PrivateIdaho Saat: 09:53 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting presslord:
we're gonna have pizza out on the beach...most of you are welcome to join us...bring your own beer...
ok, be there in about 4 days.:(
Member Since: Ağustos 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211
291. shadoclown45 Saat: 09:53 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
I feel a sadness in my soul when a post is ignored or buried :(.
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292. blsealevel Saat: 09:54 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting tropicfreak:
We have some painfully slow storms east of here in Richmond, there are also a lot of gust fronts, and as they move west, storms form in behind it. Kinda cool. And get this, the storms are moving east at 5 mph. Flood advisory is in effect for some of these storms.






Wow i dont recall seeing that before or at least not with that many thunder storms at once (downdrafts?)
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296. Grothar Saat: 09:55 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Check out my Avi...and yes I always dress like that and yes I grew that spud in my garden in about a day and a half.;^)


Yeah, I heard they grew them big in Idaho. I was born on Long Island. We grow potatoes there, too. As a matter of fact, we grow Idaho potatoes there.
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297. PrivateIdaho Saat: 09:55 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
empty space being created


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298. TomTaylor Saat: 09:56 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting sunlinepr:
NASA's 'Age of Aquarius' Dawns With California Launch


A Delta II rocket launches with the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft payload from Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on Friday, June 10, 2011. The joint U.S./Argentinian Aquarius/Satelite de Aplicaciones Cientificas (SAC)-D mission, set to launch June 10, will map the salinity at the ocean surface, information critical to improving our understanding of two major components of Earth's climate system: the water cycle and ocean circulation. (Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls)

ScienceDaily (June 10, 2011) - NASA's 'Age of Aquarius' dawned June 10, 2011 with the launch of an international satellite carrying the agency-built Aquarius instrument that will measure the saltiness of Earth's oceans to advance our understanding of the global water cycle and improve climate forecasts.

The Aquarius/SAC-D observatory rocketed into space from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California atop a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket at 7:20:13 a.m. PDT (10:20:13 a.m. EDT). Less than 57 minutes later, the observatory separated from the rocket's second stage and began activation procedures, establishing communications with ground controllers and unfurling its solar arrays.

Initial telemetry reports show the observatory is in excellent health. The SAC-D (Sat%uFFFDlite de Aplicaciones Cient%uFFFDficas) observatory is a collaboration between NASA and Argentina's space agency, Comisi%uFFFDn Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE..........................

Link

NASA Goes Below the Surface to Understand Salinity
Link
Good news.

Always happy when we launches go well
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299. HarryMc Saat: 09:56 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
After the heat wave and major t-storms last night, today was the most wicked awesome day I can imagine here in NH. Perfect.
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300. Jedkins01 Saat: 09:56 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Quoting caneswatch:


I am also sick of that. I mean if there's a extremely definitive reason why, then I can see. If it's often or constant, like I see on here, it gets real annoying.

They know what they're doing about 99% of the time. They worked hard to get there, and they do their jobs well.


Exactly...
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301. NICycloneChaser Saat: 09:59 PM GMT Tarih: 10 Haziran 2011    
Adrian's eye does indeed appear to be collapsing:


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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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