Globe has 10th warmest May on record; critical fire conditions for Arizona
May 2011 was the globe's 10th warmest May on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). May 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were 0.6°C above average, the 7th highest SSTs of the past 100 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were above average, the 8th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Unusual global extremes in May and spring 2011
As I discussed in yesterday's post, during the spring period of March, April, and May 2011, 46% of the U.S. had abnormally (top 10%) wet or dry conditions--the greatest such area during the 102-year period of record. On average, just 21% of the country has exceptionally wet conditions or exceptionally dry conditions during spring. In addition, heavy 1-day precipitation events--the kind that cause the worst flooding--were also at an all-time high in the spring of 2011.
A highly extreme precipitation pattern was also observed over the British Isles during spring 2011. England suffered its driest spring in over a century during May, with late May soils the driest on record over large parts of eastern and central England. In contrast, Scotland had its wettest spring on record.
New Zealand had its warmest May since records began there in 1909, whereas Australia saw its coolest March-May since their records began in 1950.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a detailed summary of May 2011 global weather extremes.
La Niña is gone; conditions are neutral
Although sea surface temperatures increased in the equatorial Pacific overall, El Niño/La Niña conditions remained neutral in the month of May, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Sea surface temperatures were near-average across the central Pacific Ocean, and were 0.5°C or more above average in the far western and eastern Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions are expected to continue through the summer.
May Arctic sea ice 3rd lowest extent on record
Arctic sea ice in May 2011 was much-below average according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and ranked 3rd lowest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. Sea ice loss has accelerated during the first half of June, and as of June 16 was the lowest for the date since satellite measurements began in 1979. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere was also below average, making May 2011 the 7th consecutive May with below-average snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere.
Five-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
The powerful winds that helped fan Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's largest fire on record will return in force today, after a two-day quiet period that allowed firefighter to achieve 29% containment of the fire by Wednesday evening. The forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph today and Friday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that even stronger winds will blow Saturday and Sunday. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.
Figure 2. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire (top area with red squares denoting active fires) drifts northeastward over New Mexico in this image taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 20:30 UTC on June 15, 2011. Arizona's Horseshoe Two fire is also visible, as well as fires burning in New Mexico and Mexico.
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.
Jeff Masters
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Public health, tourism and the environment in Florida suffered a major loss this week when the federal government put the protection of state waters back into the hands of the very people who have polluted them — big business and its enablers in Tallahassee. In a letter to the state, the Environmental Protection Agency dropped its effort to adopt clean water standards for Florida following 13 years of foot-dragging by state officials. This is either Washington's way to force the state's hand or a decision by the Obama administration not to alienate Florida in the run-up to the 2012 election. Either way, it's a risky game of chicken with a governor and a state Legislature that have shown no regard for the environment and clean water.
A brief history: The federal government told the states in 1998 to limit nutrient pollution in rivers, lakes and coastal areas by 2004 or it would do the job for them. But 2004 came and went. Florida environmental groups sued in 2008 seeking to compel the EPA to intervene under the Clean Water Act. The agency settled the case in 2009 under an agreement it would draft the standards for Florida. After 11 years of stalling, new rules were on the way and expected this year. Then Monday, after howls of complaints from business groups and state lawmakers, the EPA said it would give Florida another chance. The agency did not agree to preapproving any rules or to surrendering its rulemaking authority entirely. But it agreed to give Florida the time to write new clean water standards of its own.
This concession was as close to an all-out surrender as they come, and it's a shame EPA lost its nerve in the face of a massive disinformation campaign. State leaders and business interests hijacked the debate by ponying up inflated estimates for what it would cost to clean up Florida's waters. The EPA agreed to a host of loopholes — exempting entire industrial operations from the clean water rules, creating a waiver process and dragging out enforcement. Still, the state went to court to protect the biggest polluters. For this, Florida gets rewarded with another chance?
(Thanks, Doc.)
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
NEWFLASH! Niceville Florida - It's actually raining! It's coming down like Cats and Dog with a gator or two!
Can you direct to Freeport please??!!
Sorry, I had already requested a redirect to Crestview and was told one request per person! :)
Just wait til the June numbers come in.
Major flooding on the Mississippi river predicted to cause largest Gulf of Mexico dead zone ever recorded
Really! Crestview!!! If aaaanybody gets rain around here, it's always Crestview. ;)
Nope, they haven't even updated the invest file to include past positions yet.
Yep, sea-ice extent is on pace to set record June minimums at both 15% and 30% coverage levels.
Somehow new records being set in consecutive years is less than a comforting thought.
Absolutely not. Some of our busiest years have come from neutral years.
2005 and 2008 to name recent neutral years.
Definitely not true. 2005and 2008 were neutral season.
Good morning all.
...mostly because it's outpacing some of the more pessimistic predictions. Even if the surface air temperature record isn't near the top of the projections, that heat energy may just be going into the sea ice/arctic ocean.
yeah, and I'm sleeping with two comforters at night 'cause it's so cold....
Thank you both for your answers!
That was I was led to believe but the city put us water rationing starting 1 June. Two of my neighbors have already received their first warning (No Fine) but one didn’t comprehend the message so he got a ticket for watering on his non-watering day.
If Crestview isn't getting any rain, then we're all in serious trouble. ;)
The remote Nabro Volcano, along the border between Eritrea and Ethiopia, emitted a thick plume of volcanic gases on June 15, 2011. The Toulousse Volcanic Ash Advisory Center and the Joint Air Force & Army Weather Information Network reported that the plume rose to an altitude of 35,000 feet (11,000 meters), and consisted mainly of sulphur dioxide. The bright white color of the plume suggests it contains a high concentration of water vapour as well.
Well, it would mean there were 30 cooler Mays, if, indeed, the record only went back that far. But I'm not sure where you got the "since 1971" bit; the temperature record goes back to 1880--meaning, of course, there have been 121 cooler/colder Mays than the one just passed. And that actually means quite a bit, IYAM...
It's warm, and getting warmer.
Nabro isn't done yet.
The remote Nabro Volcano, along the border between Eritrea and Ethiopia, emitted a thick plume of volcanic gases on June 15, 2011.
awesome... maybe it will make it to Calif and put us all out of our misery....
Watching for monsoonal development in the Gulf next week 6/16/11
Yes we are, thankfully. Maybe we will get some much-needed rain. This is for my location:
Tornado: 0%
Hail: 15%
Wind: 15%
Definitely a low-end Slight risk.
Uh oh... the Virginias and the Carolinas better stay vigilant (the Dakotas too)!
;-)
Well, since we're gonna be in neutral, history isn't on our side.
We're in neutral now.
History isn't on our side either.
NEUTRAL Phase ENSO Year
25 of the hurricane seasons in the 105-yr period are classified as cold phases, 23 are designated warm phases, and 57 are categorized as neutral. The only occurrences from 1900 to 2005 of multiple major hurricane landfalls in Florida are during ENSO neutral years (1950, 2004, and 2005).
The increase during neutral phases in landfalls along the Florida and Gulf coasts for hurricanes classified as tropical storms east of 50°W allows the authors to hypothesize that a variation in the steering flow exists during neutral phases. Separating hurricane landfall locations along the East Coast by state boundaries reveal that hurricanes tend to hit farther south during an ENSO neutral phase than during La Nina phases.
The hypothetical variation in the steering flow seems to keep tropical cyclones forming in the eastern tropical North Atlantic on a more southerly track during a neutral ENSO phase, thereby decreasing the probability of East Coast landfalls. Major hurricanes making landfall during the neutral phase in Florida have a median tropical storm classification longitude of 62.0° versus 44.9°W for East Coast major hurricanes during the neutral phase
The probability of an East Coast landfall during ENSO neutral phases is nearly identical to the landfall probability for ENSO warm phases (El Nino).
Again; formation location during an ENSO neautral is one thing...The ultimate location of the A-B high/trof frequency as to where a particular storm is steered (into the Carib-US or out to sea) is another......We had a very favorable A-B high location last year in spite of La Nina conditions and numerous storms.
Link
It looks like we should get some decent rain this weekend into next week..I was planning on going to the beach though this weekend..
Yeah, not good for them eithier.
Neutral, Neutral, Neutral..... Prepare Early.
I sure am hoping a minimal TS or TD might develop in the Caribbean or Gulf soon so some much needed rain will be delivered to those that are desperate. Thank goodness we got some from 94L although it wasn't nearly enough.
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