A new airplane for the hurricane hunters
If you have a copy of Google Earth, try zooming in to take a look at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base near Tucson, Arizona. Included amongst the thousands of retired airplanes in the desert is one lucky 4-engine turboprop P-3 Orion, used by the Navy for anti-submarine warfare. This sword will soon be beaten into a plowshare, for it will serve as NOAA's next weather research aircraft. Stung by criticism that neither of our top hurricane hunter aircraft--the two P-3 Orions operated by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center (AOC)--were available to fly during 2004's Hurricane Charley, since they were off flying other weather research projects, the government has allocated $11 million to buy a new P-3 for weather research. According to Dr. Jim McFadden, head of science programs for the AOC, the new P-3 will not be used for hurricane work, but instead will be outfitted to do other weather reasearch, such as air pollution projects. This will free up the two current P-3s for the entire hurricane season, so they can concentrate exclusively on hurricane work. No funding has yet been procured to finance the additional staff required by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center to operate the new P-3, but this funding has been promised by NOAA.
Figure 1. The NOAA P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft. Image credit: NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.
The new P-3 is scheduled to come on-line in 2008 or 2009, but we could sure use it this hurricane season! Only one P-3 is scheduled to be available for hurricane work. The other P-3 is currently in Standard Depot Level Maintainence (SDLM), a 5-month process the airplanes undergo every seven years, where they are basically gutted down to the frame and rebuilt. As part of this year's SDLM, the P-3 will also be undergoing a Special Structural Inspection (SSI), where every rivet is X-rayed and the entire frame closely inspected for stress cracks caused by the severe turbulence the aircraft flies through. When the P-3 completes SDLM, it will undergo a month-long process to outfit it with special instrumentation to perform air pollution research. The P-3 is scheduled to be ready by August to fly again, and it is slated to spend the peak months of hurricane season--August and September--in Houston for an air pollution field program. Should the other P-3 suffer some crippling mechanical problem that would put it out of hurricane flying action for an extended period, the P-3 in Houston will be summoned to fly hurricanes. This can only happen after a 3-day effort to take all the sentitive air pollution instrumentation off of the airplane, as these instruments cannot survive high turbulence.
Since only one P-3 will be available for the 2006 hurricane season, we'll have only one Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instrument flying. The SFMR is an airborne remote sensing device that can infer surface wind speeds in a hurricane by looking at the brightness of the sea surface. The SFMR measurements were used heavily by NHC in 2005 to determine how much of the coast needed hurricane and tropical storm warnings. The U.S. Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to receive the SFMR instruments, but this will not happen in time for the 2006 hurricane season, according to Dr. McFadden.
What's interesting about the new P-3 purchase is that no big press release about it was made--at least that I can find. It is strange that an administration concerned about its image after the Katrina disaster wouldn't emphasize its commitment spend more money to help out hurricane reconnaissance. In addition to the new P-3, the administration has also proposed in its 2006 budget to spend $1.4 million to improve hurricane data buoys and operations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Oceans. Unfortunately, little new money has been approved or promised to fund more hurricane research. While I give the Bush Administration credit for these much-needed expenditures, I believe that the money proposed to fix the ailing buoys might have been better spent funding NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to do more research to improve our poor hurricane intensity forecasts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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My prediction is that Jacksonville, my street in particular, will see 12 cat 5 storms in the month of July.
Complete with flying pigs and monkeys.
Now, see, that's just the kind of irresponsible comment we're talking about. How would you feel if people were injured or killed because they listened to your advice instead of heeding actual warnings from the Federal Porcine and Primate Aviation Administration?
Naurally, I agree with you on those predictions, although I am kinda wavering on the 12 category fives for rx honestly.:)
The only difference I guees is a Carolinas landfall, what do you think of that prospect this season?
Hows the wife and kids?
I am a big believer in the all important AMO cycle and obviously you would have had to be 13 or 14 naturally during the Inactive phase of the AMO cycle and that makes perfect sense.
The one year that stands out as an unusual active season especialy for landfalls is 1985 (the second year I really started folowing and tracking every storm at age 15) where there were 6 hurricane landfalls with Elena and Gloria making landfalls at category three intensity.
Moreover, that same year hurricane Kate achieved category three intensity in late November and made landfall as a category two in the Florida panhandle.
Naturally, this one season was very unusual during the Inactive phase of the AMO as you just noted.:)
Thanks for the kind words:)
Nothing I have predicted is unusual and is simply my personal best educated guess.:)
I may be wrong and I may be right, only God knows that answer right now.
You have a right to your opinion even if it happens to be wrong like your infamous Katrina forecast you keep bragging about.:)
Unlike you, I think you simply made an incorrect forecast and that doesn't make you an idiot in my humble opinion.
My prediction is that Jacksonville, my street in particular, will see 12 cat 5 storms in the month of July.
LOL. What about the rest of the season? Or are you just assuming there won't be anything left?
Can I ask you a serious question?
How can you say I have already made a big mistake by saying that I think it is possible that the Carolinas might see a major hit this year when it hasn't even begun?
If you want to put an unofficial date on it, it is understood that Cape Verde season usualy gets going August 15 just for the record.
However, tropical activity doesn't care too much for the calendar as you know sometimes.:)
not much dust out there just yet
hurr chaser you are a real idiot anyone hopes for a landfall on the east coast is crazy..i been listening to your b/s and i cant wait to see your forecasts once the season begins..you have already made one mistake a major lanfall on the east coast..la nina is expected to hang around until late june or early july and that spells one thing trouble for the gulf states..i really like your posts unaccurate and unintelligent like you are..by the way you were talking about the cape verde season well you ididot for youe information it begins aug 1 any moron that would make a prediction that you would have increase of activity is almost a given thing...one thing you fail to realize is the african coast has not had as much rain as they did at this time last year and the famous african dust will take over once again..storms will not do to much off the african coast its when they are 300 miles or so from the winward islands providing the shear is down that they will start to develop and move into the caribbean sea and threaten jamaica..the gulf is where the bullseye will be again this year chaser and if you cant see that by the temps already over 84 degrees and the less shear we will have because of la nina then you are more of a fool then i thought you were..
I have marked this comment as obscene. Calling someone an idiot (multiple times I might add) is very childish.
What's up Lefty, StormT, and Chaser?
I see I have a lot to catch up on.
Is there anything that indicates where the Bermuda high will set up this year and what it's tendancies will be? I would think this will be a huge factor in where these storms end up. My gut tends to agree with ST about the Gulf being the more active area this year, but I can not ignore that things have been fairly quite on the E coast for several years now and that trend will not last forever. NE Fla and GA are way overdue if you look at the statistics. Anywho I am at work and will check in later, but I will have to catch up on most of the posts when I get home.
If ya'll have any links to sites (imagery,forcasting, etc) please shoot them my way and if you have the time a short description of the site would be great. Also still looking for video and video links
SJ
Gotta go to work, will be looking forward to blogging now that I have internet- yessssss!!!!
So sorry atmosweather for the trouble you are going through, hope you'll get all back in order soon, we need you too!
Regards from Damon and code1, just got off the phone.
Get your feelings off your shoulder. Just because you do not agree with ST, which many of us do not from time to time, does not make his post obscene. I have seen obscene posts on here as many of us have. Likely laid one or two out myself. We have been through all of this already. StormTop is welcome here and if you can play along you can learn from everyone. Even the ones you don't like.
sorry about the typing for i am holding my baby. did you just say that the bermuda hifgh and the azores high are going to be in two different locations.
that where i was going with that question to stormtop and i don't know what i am talking about...lol
bermuda and the azores.
My predictions are so bad, that if I predict them to come here they'll most likely hit Australia.
And these small, street-sized hurricanes that I predict can easily be stopped with the massive methane emissions from my Boston Terrier.
People, if you heed any of my predictions, heed this one--Boston Terrier farts are DEADLY and there will be many this summer.
B
StormTop - I guess I am one of the few that is/was glad of your absence if this is the insight you bring.
Correct leftyy, but it does tend to create a warmer Gulf, because of the fact of a warmer, drier pattern for the SE due to La Nina.
It is great to see everyone back before the start of what looks to be another hyperactive season in the Atlantic. I am currently preparing my outlook and hope to be finished with the comprehensive update tomorrow.
Have a great afternoon,
Rich
An extra few paragraphs per post would be splendid as well.
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