A new airplane for the hurricane hunters
If you have a copy of Google Earth, try zooming in to take a look at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base near Tucson, Arizona. Included amongst the thousands of retired airplanes in the desert is one lucky 4-engine turboprop P-3 Orion, used by the Navy for anti-submarine warfare. This sword will soon be beaten into a plowshare, for it will serve as NOAA's next weather research aircraft. Stung by criticism that neither of our top hurricane hunter aircraft--the two P-3 Orions operated by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center (AOC)--were available to fly during 2004's Hurricane Charley, since they were off flying other weather research projects, the government has allocated $11 million to buy a new P-3 for weather research. According to Dr. Jim McFadden, head of science programs for the AOC, the new P-3 will not be used for hurricane work, but instead will be outfitted to do other weather reasearch, such as air pollution projects. This will free up the two current P-3s for the entire hurricane season, so they can concentrate exclusively on hurricane work. No funding has yet been procured to finance the additional staff required by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center to operate the new P-3, but this funding has been promised by NOAA.
Figure 1. The NOAA P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft. Image credit: NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.
The new P-3 is scheduled to come on-line in 2008 or 2009, but we could sure use it this hurricane season! Only one P-3 is scheduled to be available for hurricane work. The other P-3 is currently in Standard Depot Level Maintainence (SDLM), a 5-month process the airplanes undergo every seven years, where they are basically gutted down to the frame and rebuilt. As part of this year's SDLM, the P-3 will also be undergoing a Special Structural Inspection (SSI), where every rivet is X-rayed and the entire frame closely inspected for stress cracks caused by the severe turbulence the aircraft flies through. When the P-3 completes SDLM, it will undergo a month-long process to outfit it with special instrumentation to perform air pollution research. The P-3 is scheduled to be ready by August to fly again, and it is slated to spend the peak months of hurricane season--August and September--in Houston for an air pollution field program. Should the other P-3 suffer some crippling mechanical problem that would put it out of hurricane flying action for an extended period, the P-3 in Houston will be summoned to fly hurricanes. This can only happen after a 3-day effort to take all the sentitive air pollution instrumentation off of the airplane, as these instruments cannot survive high turbulence.
Since only one P-3 will be available for the 2006 hurricane season, we'll have only one Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instrument flying. The SFMR is an airborne remote sensing device that can infer surface wind speeds in a hurricane by looking at the brightness of the sea surface. The SFMR measurements were used heavily by NHC in 2005 to determine how much of the coast needed hurricane and tropical storm warnings. The U.S. Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to receive the SFMR instruments, but this will not happen in time for the 2006 hurricane season, according to Dr. McFadden.
What's interesting about the new P-3 purchase is that no big press release about it was made--at least that I can find. It is strange that an administration concerned about its image after the Katrina disaster wouldn't emphasize its commitment spend more money to help out hurricane reconnaissance. In addition to the new P-3, the administration has also proposed in its 2006 budget to spend $1.4 million to improve hurricane data buoys and operations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Oceans. Unfortunately, little new money has been approved or promised to fund more hurricane research. While I give the Bush Administration credit for these much-needed expenditures, I believe that the money proposed to fix the ailing buoys might have been better spent funding NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to do more research to improve our poor hurricane intensity forecasts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"I know I kinda got carried away there (what else is new) and your logic is indeed correct about the wobbles resulting often times from interaction with land."
outrocket wrote:
"In all what happens is as the eye nears shore the eye wall interacts with land and the part of the eyewall nearing the shore or on it is slowed by the friction with land(obstacles)..this allows the part of the eyewall over the water to be rotating faster around the eye causing a "hooking effect" which tends to make the east side outrun the west side of the eye wall on land falling hurricanes..that hook would reflect in a eastward looking jog you will see this often...as for Dennis's east wiggle last year that was caused by shear off the yucatan pennisula:)...hope that helps"
Thanks, chaser and outrocket...that's pretty much what I figured...the friction slows the front (North) side of the storm, causing the back (South) side, which is still over water and thus subject to less friction, to "hook" or "pinwheel" around to the East (right).
GFS seems to drift this feature northward and create a low pressure area once it gets above about 5N.
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=Davis-Monthan+Air+Force+Base&ll=32.159803,-110.833814&spn=0.001846,0.0042&t=k&om=1
Keys are getting ready for the season...by moving out!
B
Intresting article though. I feel bad for the locals who will not be able to afford to stay.
Why can't just one person please correct me with FACTS on one thing I wrote that is no correct about this topic based on the facts contained therein?
Secondly, why can't people understand that my pure motives for this blog is to present ONLY the FAIR and OBJECTIVE FACTS about the amazing accuracy of the NHC forecasts and how they were NOT responsible for over a thousand deaths as STORMTOP still insists and if people were truly objective, they would realize he, not I, am the one trying to DISCREDIT people (i.e. NHC)which is a real matter of life and death if people could truly understand where I am coming from and is NOT an attack personally on STORMTOP.
It would be different if I was making ASSUMPTIONS like the others who are the real instigators and didn't simply provide the comparisons in his very own words.
sorry folks but enough is enough....please mark as obscene for i don't want to muck up the blog like some people have done....... this is all i'm going to say about this.....
I am not complaining about the NHC or the job they did in forcasting any storm. I will also tell you that if you think anyone is ever RIGHT and WRONG in forcasting then you are sadly mistaken. There is more accurate and less accurate, but not right and wrong. Four days out StormT stated Pass Christian while the NHC was still on the Apalachacola area. This being said StormT mas more accurate in his 72+ hr forcast for Katrina. I also think that the NHC should have been pushing harder to get the evacs started in NO once they realized that it was Midnight and the models jumped to NO and there forcast was going to have to make a substantial jump to the W. The NHC nor StormT are perfect and no one should have the false since of security that either are.
I don't have the HTML "tools" when I post. Am I missing something here? All I get is this small form to type in and "post comment" button. Do I have to be a paid member to get the standard forum HTML tools?
B
Let's move on is my main point. Hows the dust, sea temps, shear, etc.
Link
This is all I get:
http://siebercreative.com/brian/pic.jpg
B
I think that anyone at risk from a tropical cyclone that relies upon any forecaster's or committee's opinion is not taking responsibility for their own safety. I am not trained nor conversant in the meteorological sciences, but can understand easily the language. When a TC threatens, I use all the information and opinions I can lay my eyes on, and make my own informed decision, and take responsibility for those choices.
The real beauty of a site like this is education and those of you that ARE knowledgeable can share what you think; the rest of us learn and maybe share some of our own knowledge. I could care less if this or that person is right or wrong -- impossible to measure anyway. Kudos, BTW to SJ.... that's exactly right... it's degrees of accuracy or probabilities. Good also, to see all the ol' players back here.
I understand if Chaser is upset with an inference that the NHC caused deaths. In my opinion, that would be a rediculous thing to assert. I did not read ST's comments that way, more of a "bragging-rights" thing, and I don't care to debate my opinion of this with anyone. Either way, opinions can be debated, but not proven, at least within the context of a logical arguement. Saying the same thing over and over again does not add weight to the arguement.
Hmmm. If I charge by the word, that should be at least my .25 worth lol! Sorry it was so lengthy all
that's not going to improve with age. lol
"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them" A. Einstein
well said !!! Lets not dwell on the past but put our resources to work for this up coming season...
This is my new sig on my site. ROFL.
"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them" A. Einstein.
Continued actions will acquire the same result.
Sales Training 101!
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1631Z 03 MAY 2006
THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT
ALASKA - BRITISH COLUMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA.
... A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONGA / NIUE / AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA / WALLIS-FUTUNA / FIJI
FOR ALL OTHER PACIFIC AREAS, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1527Z 03 MAY 2006
COORDINATES - 19.9 SOUTH 174.2 WEST
LOCATION - TONGA ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.8
EVALUATION
IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WARNING IS
BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AN EARTHQUAKE OF THIS
SIZE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN
STRIKE COASTLINES IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN MINUTES
TO HOURS. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL GAUGES NEAREST THE REGION AND REPORT IF ANY
TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED. THE WARNING WILL NOT EXPAND
TO OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED
TO WARRANT SUCH AN EXPANSION.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES
MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME
BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1551Z 03 MAY
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1557Z 03 MAY
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1620Z 03 MAY
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 1622Z 03 MAY
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 1643Z 03 MAY
FIJI SUVA 18.5S 178.5E 1704Z 03 MAY
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE BULLETINS
FOR ALASKA - BRITISH COLUMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA.
Link
But either way, it was STRONG.
When will they know if a tsunami is going to hit? Like... when will the threat be over?
2006/05/03 15:26 M 8.0 TONGA Z= 16km 20.03S 174.23W
This information is provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.
(Address problems to: sedas@ghtmail.cr.usgs.gov)
These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.
A magnitude 8.0 earthquake IN TONGA has occurred at:
20.03S 174.23W Depth 16km Wed May 3 15:26:35 2006 UTC
Time: Universal Time (UTC) Wed May 3 15:26:35 2006
Time Near Epicenter Thu May 4 04:26:35 2006
Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) Wed May 3 11:26:35 2006
Central Daylight Time (CDT) Wed May 3 10:26:35 2006
Mountain Daylight Time (MDT) Wed May 3 09:26:35 2006
Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) Wed May 3 08:26:35 2006
Alaska Daylight Time (ADT) Wed May 3 07:26:35 2006
Hawaii Standard Time (HST) Wed May 3 05:26:35 2006
Location with respect to nearby cities:
155 km (95 miles) S of Neiafu, Tonga (pop 3,000)
160 km (100 miles) NE of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga (pop 37,000)
455 km (280 miles) S of Hihifo, Tonga
2145 km (1340 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
For maps, additional information, and subsequent updates,
please consult: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
_______________________________
Either way, that's BIIIG
okay, back ta work for me
Crabout
I respect your opinion but respectfully disagree.
Not once did STORMTOP predict the landfall location correctly in contrast to the NHC.
Seondly, he was forecasting a 170-180 mph and suggested even stronger hit which was not even close no matter how one tries to rationalize the destruction for there is a HUGE diference in the Katrina that hit and if she had come ashore at that intensity.
I am simply amazed that people really can find fault with the NHC on their superb Katrina forecast for 72 hours prior to landfall when watches aren't even issued to begin voluntary evacuatins prior to 36-48 hours to landfall at a time STORMTOP was all over the place changing forecast landfalls whicvh if had ben done by the NHC would have caused mass choas and most likely deaths because he was still forecasting a 180 mph category five betwen Pass CHristian and Gulfport which would mean many New Orleans residents would have not left or would have returned home 22 hours before landfall and tried to take to the roads too late not too mention those who would take tothe roads that shouldn't have that would cause such gridlock because of such indescion and changes in forecast location from as far as WEST of Grand Isle to Gulfport all within the 72 hours that the NHC was right where they should be that saved thousands of lives in contrast to what is incorrectly ASSUMED and ignores the FACTS themselves as posted in my blog.
Therein lies the problem, I am not talking about my opinion versus another, I am talking about undeniable FACTS n the own words of the NHC and STORMTOP.
Secondly, STORMTOP was not simply bragging because he has constantly made it clear in this blog that he is accusing the NHC of those deaths and suggesting they be ignored.
That is a very serious thing and not about him personally or my opinions.
Just for the record, I am not interested in STORMTOPS apology (as a blogger mentioned wasn't coming of course) for this is not about me at all.
It is about the INCORRECT ASSUMPTION that the NHC was inaccurate intheir forecasts 72 hours out to landfall and caused over a thousand people to die and his intentional comments to tell others to ignore the NHC and only listen to him which is very serious.
People can't seemto understand that this has NOTHING to do with me but about the FACTS regarding STORMTOPS FALSE accusations about the NHC and how well they truly did.
The fact is that he couldn't have done worse from 72 hours to landfall in comparison and he is claiming credit that the NHC deserves.
Has anyone seriously read my blog before they made these opinions which are completely rebutted by the FACTS in their very own words not mine.
I am very disappointed in every single person who can so quickly ASSUME that I am attacking STORMTOP or that it's ok that people REALLY attack me like the comments in blog and not say one word to addres how WRONG that is but are so quick to question my sincerity and pure motives and NOT read my blog before jumping to such FALSE comments about me and what I said.
Moocrew,
You are not unbiased as your previous comments prove and it's a shame you CHOOSE to ACT so close minded and judgemental (not saying you are that way all the time but you are acting that way) in my own personal opinion when you have no idea what my true motives are and why this was extremely important because I do care about people lives and such FALSE and misguided beliefs/opinions about the NHC are a serious matter in my humble opinion.
As for the la nina, yeah I'm 2 day late on the Monday update, so here it is & I'll elaberate more than usual~
credit NOAA
Nino 1&2 ~that's the area off South America, on the eastern side of the pacific. That is the predictor of what is to come in the other regions. Nino 4 is the west side of the pacific, Nino 3 lies in between. Things were looking a lot better at the beginning of March as Nino 1 welled up a little warm water, which has now moderated 3 & 4 to nuetral. (this also brought a little rain to Fl for about a week, as 3 was slightly warmer than neutral) But the end of march has brought a plumit to SST anomilys in area 1, colder than previously in this la nina.
Look a small spot at -5
Credit NOAA
I don't think La Nina is gonna be over anytime soon.
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