Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

no .. not KC i mean miami

yeah, miami needs a qb bad, but I think by them not drafting one early that signifies they are probably going to get green

Interesting Plume SSIGg
http://www.firedetect.noaa.gov/viewer.htm

JFL~ New bouys are on the way.

Those bouys will probably not be put to use till mid july if the current trend continues.One main reason iam looking at is the strong tutt that is located over the central and eastern atlantic currently.Also i would like to add there is currently 40-50kt shear across most of eastern atalntic from the african coast to parts of the caribbean.I think the main factor here that might hold off any early development will be the tutt being well established as it is.Things can change but the way i see it things we might be shapeing up for a slow start.Adrian

Also quick note i dont see any progress towards La nina from looking at the sub-surface.Iam not 100% sold on any nina taking shape this summer.

Click MSLP 1000-500 (loop) and watch the Carribean towards the end it has a TS!!!!!Link

not expecting to happen just fun to watch!!:)

That storm will not affect the US directly will it

More fantasy stuff from the GFS...Extremly long range and has to be taken with great caution.

One thing is true the 07 season is fast approaching.

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how many TS has the GFS predicted, 4 TS in 2 months? Pretty good:)

Nice job with the blog thunder:) I like it alot:)

Stormchaser,

I think you are under estimating. It predicted 4 TS last week. What's up with the GFS? It didn't seem to be as unreliable in past years as it has been lately?

Maybe that is just my imagination... I hope this is NOT the sign of a hectic hurricane season like 2005.

Dakster, yeah your right, it has been more than 4, also i REALLY dont think that anything will form because if you look at the wind shear maps there way to high for any development!! Another thing I have a funny felling about this season because the GFS never used to even predict tropical development!

Heres the shear forecast.....Link Not really favorable for development at all!!

stormchasher dont go by the WU wind shear maps they dont tell you whats going on

ues winds whsar maps like this one
img src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF" width="640" height="427" alt="lol"

Conditions are ripe for TS formation early into the season with the exception of the shear and the relative lack of moisture; we will have to see what happens with the shear in the next two weeks..

Oh ok Taz thanks:)

Yeah with the exception of wind shear and moisture conditions are right.

shear is pretty normal right now, we'd probably see 28 storms this season if shear was favorable right now as opposed to the 20+ we'll see regardless.

So StoryOfTheCane, whats your feeling on the H-season??

Not sure what will happen in the long-term but I am pretty certain that we may see 1-2 tropical storms form before June 1st

My Predictions:

Right now I think we're looking at 19 storms, 13 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and 7 landfalls.

Gabrielle, Humberto, Jerry, Lorenzo, Melissa, Olga and Pablo are going to be our majors.

yeah that seems about right.

Have a good morning all; I'm off to church....

Hey pat, what do u see in your crystal ball??

Last year we had two "tropical lows" before Alberto that rode up the east coast. We debated on here whether they merited being called depressions.

So we'll probably see the same thing in May/June. A few invests that could *possibly* be an early start to the season, but aren't.

That's what "normal years" are like. In 2004 and 2005, it seemed like anything with the potential to develop... did.

how many do you guys expect to see this year?

I think May 21st will be the first named system, second being June 2nd

Heres my forecast


1) 17-19 storms(not including depressions)
2) 9-10 Hurricanes 2-3 land falling
3) 4-6 Intense hurricanes ( cat 3- 4 )
4) 1-2 Cat 5 ( 2 If its a strong La Nina )

Wow May 21st really detailed!

.. "Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy."
- BILL PROENZA, DIRECTOR
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

This year Hurricane Preparedness Week is May 20-26, 2007

ah! when is it gonna rain here ...... its ridiculous... forecast here: no rain chances higher than 20 percent for at least the next 7 days ....(south florida) ..... it hasnt rained in a bout a month

: stormchasher her are some wind shear maps you sould ues

I will have my forcast soon. I am going to say it again however I just have a good fealing this season will not be the major active season everyone thinks it will be.

Thanks Taz!!!:)

GTG:)

...May "smelling" early???

Whoa! I saw this video on youttube of Hurricane Charley cat.4 .... look at the continuous debris flying.... and all those roofs everywheres its crazy...... with how old my roof is ...it would be no match for something like this or a 3.....

Becareful not to confuse shear tendency maps with wind shear.Shear tendency maps only indicate where shear is increasing or decreasing, they do not indicate the amount of shear across the overall tropics.Adrian

Actually the shear tendecy map has the shear in color with the key to that on the side. Solid yellow lines (increasing) & the dotted blue lines (decreasing) tells how much the shear has risen or fallen in the last 3 hours.

What you don't want to confuse with shear is the stearing currents map. (3rd down in Taz's maps post.) That has how fast the air is moving & direction for that particuclar layer of air.

Dry May= Higher chance of hurricane strike...... On several websites i read that dry mays here in South florida usually have hurricane strikes.... like in 04, 92 , and a couple others...... I thought this was very intresting ...

Ligthning10,

From your lips to god's ears on the slow season. Although, a "slow" season where I get hit with one hurricane, is still a bad year for me.

I see that as proenza states, we are learning, since Hurricane preparedness week is a little earlier now in May instead of June. I remember the hurricane preparedness fair in 2005. The first storm was threatening before the fair...

About South Florida, no rain in sight, drought, fires, and water restrictions... Blame the SFWMD (South Florida Water Management District). Apparently they decided last year to release billions of gallons of water out of Lake Okeechobe becuase it was supposed to be an acive season and they worried about flooding. I know hindsight is 20/20, but they did this in 2000/2001 the last round of water restrictions. The same forecast, the same thing happened. Granted, this is better than the Dikes failing along the Lake, but you'd hope they wouldn't drop the Lake like in 2000. I won't second guess the experts, but someone has to come up with a better way to do this. Instead of dike failure, we may lose our potable water supply which could be just as devastating as the Dike failures. Today's Miami Herald had a nice article about it.

So if the Hurricane Gods are listening, NO HURRICANES, but feel free to send a bunch of rain our way.

that wave south of jamica is the one that has held together for the past 2 days...it doesnt look like much but shows signs of some spin to it....does this have a chance to develop further or am i just a little to over excited