Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Sea life's importance to the climate
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Saat: 02:45 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007 +2
Does the marine biosphere mix the ocean? A group of oceanographers led by W.K. Dewar of Florida State University argue that the swimming action of fish and other marine organisms may play a critical role in driving ocean currents. If true, large-scale over-fishing or the collapse of the marine food chain due to pollution or ocean acidification may cause significant changes in ocean currents--and Earth's climate.


Figure 1. Rainbow made From a sperm whale using his blowhole. Image taken June 17, 2006 in Kaikora, New Zealand by wunderphotographer jhfelder.

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) or Thermohaline Circulation is a well-known feature of the ocean circulation. In the Atlantic, the Gulf Stream current forms a portion of the MOC. Gulf Stream waters flow to the region near Greenland, where an input of fresh, denser water from melting ice and river run-off creates a downward flow of water that then moves southward along the ocean bottom towards the Equator. This deep water eventually returns to the surface in the mid-Atlantic to complete a cell of the MOC. Scientists have long thought that the energy needed to drive the MOC came from winds and tides--about two terrawatts of energy (Munk and Wunsch, 1998). However, Dewar et al. show that the mechanical energy added to the ocean by the swimming action of whales is about 1% of this total, and the swimming action of other marine organisms (primarily zooplankton) adds up to 50% of this total--one terrawatt of energy. While the authors admit that their calculations may have large errors, this research shows that marine life may have a heretofore unappreciated large impact on Earth's climate. Our climate is intimately connected to the sun, life on land, life in the ocean, and human activities in an incredibly complex web of interconnections. It is our challenge to understand this system, even as we change it and it changes of its own accord.

My next blog will be Thursday afternoon, when the new Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach Atlantic hurricane season forecast will be released.

Jeff Masters

Dewar, W.K., R.J. Bingham, R.L. Iverson, D.P. Nowacek, L.C. St. Laurent, and P.H. Wiebe, 2006, "Does the marine biosphere mix the ocean?", Journal of Marine Research, 64, 541-561.

Munk, W., and C. Wunsch, 1998, "Abyssal recipes II: Energetics of tidal and wind mixing", Deep-Sea Res., 45, 1976-2009.
Categories: Climate Change
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202. hurricane23 Saat: 07:26 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Winds are at 30kts with 02E but futher intensification seems llikely if the trend continues.Steering currents are also weak so basically just drifting around for now.
Member Since: Mayıs 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
204. Patrap Saat: 07:44 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Link
Member Since: Temmuz 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
205. Inyo Saat: 07:47 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Hi Inyo/franck
polite correction: The Pine Bark beetles are destroying millions of acres of Rockies Pine not because of forestry mismanagement, but because the winters are no longer cold enough in those regions to kill off the majority of the eggs as it used to. This is one of the more easily visible impacts of climate change (a more accurate term than GW as it encompasses localized instability). as the winters get milder, the beetle is also migrating northward, and westward..it is expected to cover most of NA within ten years. Very hard to "manage" infestations of such insane magnitudes without significant enviromental toxicity and cost.


Well, I am familiar with California... in this part of the world, densities of Ponderosa Pine, Jeffrey Pine, White Fir, etc, are believed to be many, many times higher than what was the original state. Old photos, drawings, and journal entries show an open woodland with scattered pines and an understory of duff, herbs, and small bushes. Huge (200+ year old) pines were in the forests as well as an even mix of younger pines. Now, the forests are nearly impenetrable, a condition that may be sustainable for a few decades when the trees are small... however, when they mature, there is NOT enough water for them. Pines kill bark beetles by pushing them out with sap, and when they are water stressed, they can not do this as effectively.

Why are the trees so dense now? Well, most people believe it is because of fire suppression (most ponderosa pine forests probably burned through the understory at least every 10 years and now almost never burn with low intensity fires) and because of large scale clear cutting which led to a flush of many trees germinating at the same time. So, in California, this is a major cause of the bark beetle problem.

Is climate change an issue too? It is very likely that it is. The 'drought' the southwest is in is a routine drought of the sort we have every hundred years or so. However, snow levels are on average higher than they have been in the historic past (and maybe the last 100,000 years depending on who you ask), giving the drought a bigger impact. I do also believe the lack of freezes to kill the beetles is a factor here as well.

Also, pine bark beetles are a natural occurrence and definitely have killed large areas of forest in the past. However, this infestation, stretching across a huge area of the continent, is much larger than what you would see in 'normal' natural conditions. It probably happened in the past during other times of climate change, such as the end of the last ice age... Ponderosa Pine and other pines covered a much larger of low elevation in California during the ice age, and as the climate dried and warmed, something killed the trees.. probably bark beetles.
Member Since: Eylül 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765
206. Inyo Saat: 07:50 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Also, as for small animals impacting large scale conditions.. think of earthworms. They are tiny and individually insignificant, but without them the amount and quality of soil on the earth would be much lower, and the planet would be quite noticably different.
Member Since: Eylül 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765
208. Jedkins Saat: 07:52 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
the NWS here seems to be over conservative sometimes, they are calling the GFS rainfall convective feedback for this system thats expected to move over Florida.

I completely disagree, this is Florida, and although we have been dry, the chance of this system being a big soaker is just as high as it just being a decent rain maker.

This is Florida, arguably the wettest state or one of the wettest on average depending on your source. So if a pattern change is coming, and we a have a low moving out of the tropics, I think NWS here in the Tampa Bay area is being a little too conservative, I have lived here a while and seen tons of rain out of even very weak systems here.

What they should say is: GFS is painting a lot of rain for our area which is a good sign but we will keep rain chances low for now untill we see more consistency and when we get a better idea what will happen as we get closer to this event.

Thats a good way to be conservative, I think calling it convective feedback seems rather overdone, because that could easily be very wrong.
210. Jedkins Saat: 07:55 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Oh and yes the models have had false alarms in recent weeks, but come on, the NWS seems to be acting rather nieve, because May typically is dry for us, where as on average it does get wet typically right as June starts, climotologically speeking, it makes a lot more since for this to materialize then previous event forecasted by models and for the NWS to overlook this at this time is wrong to me.
212. hurricane23 Saat: 07:57 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Actually convective feedback i would have to agree as the GFS as there has been some problems with the model since the upgrade was done.Its main problem is on its genesis.
Member Since: Mayıs 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
213. TheCaneWhisperer Saat: 07:57 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
CROSSING FINGERS

Afternoon all!
214. Jedkins Saat: 08:01 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
I mean put this way, yes its possible that this may not materialize as advertised, but there is always that risk with forecasting, things often don't go as forecasted.

And if you look at climotology, its obious the best solution would be to expect pretty good rains out of this because its typical by June, where as 2 weeks ago it wasn't very typical, and it did exactly that, never materialized.
215. sullivanweather Saat: 08:09 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Gulf Stream waters flow to the region near Greenland, where an input of fresh, denser water from melting ice and river run-off creates a downward flow of water that then moves southward along the ocean bottom towards the Equator.

I thought that the water from melting ice and river runoff (fresh water) was less dense??
Member Since: Mart 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491
216. marlinsfan1 Saat: 08:18 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Is there any chance of the caribbean blob to develop into a tropical storm?
217. nash28 Saat: 08:20 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Alright, just got home from work and I see there are two trains of thought. One says nothing happening until late June or early July. Other says keep an eye open on the Carribean as well as the EPAC. Oh, and general bitching about Dr. Masters blog topic today.

Well, I believe it is asinine to dismiss any activity for the next month. Pattern is changing. Shear is dropping, albeit slowly. The pattern we are currently in is normal for May. Let's not forget last year, which was coined a "dud" by many spawned a TS in the Gulf which came over the Tampa area in the second week of June. I was in Dallas at the time on vacation, but my wife was keeping me informed about the copious amounts of hard driving rain that was flooding our property.

Here's the point..... It is foolish to make a long term forecast. I do not do this for good reason. The EPAC situation right now has no bearing on the long term ATL season. None. Zero. We are still in a neutral ENSO. Not going back to El Nino. The pattern is changing. The subtropical jet is retreating northward. Do not let your guard down.
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218. hurricane23 Saat: 08:20 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Posted By: marlinsfan1 at 16:18 EDT le 29 mai 2007. (hide)
Is there any chance of the caribbean blob to develop into a tropical storm?

It could develope but most likely it would be non-tropical in nature.
Member Since: Mayıs 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
219. BoyntonBeach Saat: 08:21 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
TCW - Do you agree with the forecast ? We are only 3 days out...
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220. plywoodstatenative Saat: 08:22 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
well the only thing interesting out there is the blow up in the GOM. Other than that all I can see is that the ULL finally moved away, so lets see what develops from that.

What are the SST's off of Africa this time of year?
Member Since: Kasım 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147
221. plywoodstatenative Saat: 08:23 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
nash, whats the chance for a neutral La Nina compared to an overly active La Nina given what we have seen in both basins?
Member Since: Kasım 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147
222. TheCaneWhisperer Saat: 08:24 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
I do Boynton! However, like 23, agree it will not be Tropical in nature! Shear is just too high!
223. TheCaneWhisperer Saat: 08:25 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
It is the best case scenario for us! A soaking without the high winds!
224. nash28 Saat: 08:25 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Hey Plywood. I don't believe we will see an active La Nina event. I stated in my blog that we will most like be in the neutral to weak La Nina pattern for this hurricane season.

But as we saw in 04 and 05, either one can be equally dangerous.
Member Since: Temmuz 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
225. DocBen Saat: 08:28 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
If south GA and FL get a heavy rainstorm what will happen with all the denuded landscape? Flooding? Lots of run-off and nothing soaking in?
Member Since: Mayıs 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
226. nash28 Saat: 08:29 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
We'll take whatever we can get. Just need rain!
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228. BoyntonBeach Saat: 08:31 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
a slow mover ?
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231. DocBen Saat: 08:33 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Question about that big swirl around Bermuda: Is the 'tail' down NE of Puerto Rico likely to split off and have a life of its own? It seems to have colder cloud tops than the rest of the swirl.
Member Since: Mayıs 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
232. ricderr Saat: 08:33 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
It could develope but most likely it would be non-tropical in nature.

why would it be non tropical?
Member Since: Haziran 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
234. nash28 Saat: 08:37 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
I think the important thing to remember here is we are NOT supposed to be active right now. It is still May. Hell, even June is historically supposed to be tame.
Member Since: Temmuz 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
235. StoryOfTheCane Saat: 08:39 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
thats a good point, nash, conditions are becoming favorable fairly early this year
238. StoryOfTheCane Saat: 08:40 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
shear definitely aint normal for this time of year, so we're not going to be looking at a normal June in my opinion
240. nash28 Saat: 08:41 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
I think to an extent most of us became a little jaded after '04 and especially '05 in terms of when is the season going to get rocking....
Member Since: Temmuz 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
241. StoryOfTheCane Saat: 08:41 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
i think we'll see at least 2 June systems, if not more
242. StoryOfTheCane Saat: 08:42 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Posted By: nash28 at 8:41 PM GMT on May 29, 2007.
I think to an extent most of us became a little jaded after '04 and especially '05 in terms of when is the season going to get rocking....


valid point
243. hcubed Saat: 08:42 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
Thought this was interesting...

By Timothy Gardner
Wed May 23, 8:42 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricanes over the past 5,000 years appear to have been controlled more by El Nino and an African monsoon than warm sea surface temperatures, such as those caused by global warming, researchers said on Wednesday.

The study, published in the journal Nature, adds to the debate on whether seas warmed by greenhouse gas emissions lead to more hurricanes, such as those that bashed the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Some researchers say warmer seas appear to have contributed to more intense hurricanes, while others disagree. The U.N. International Panel on Climate Change said this year it was more likely than not that humans contribute to a trend of increasingly intense hurricanes.

Frequent strong hurricanes thrived in the Western Atlantic during times of weak El Ninos, or warming of surface waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and strong West African monsoons even when local seas were cooler than now, the study said.

"Tropical sea surface temperatures as warm as at present are apparently not a requisite condition for increased intense hurricane activity,
" Jeffrey Donnelly, the lead author and researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said in the study.

Intense hurricanes made landfall during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a period of cooling that occurred approximately from the 14th to mid-19th centuries, he said.

Donnelly took core sediment samples from coastal lagoons in Puerto Rico to determine the frequency and strength of hurricanes that hit the Caribbean island over thousands of years. The storms whipped up sand and other coarse grains that were deposited in the lagoons.

He compared the deposits with historic paleoclimatology records to determine that the storms hit during periods when El Ninos were weak and when Western African monsoons were strong.

Intense hurricanes hit when local sea surface temperatures were warm or cool. In fact, "the Caribbean experienced a relatively active interval of intense hurricanes for more than a millennium when local sea surface temperatures were on average cooler than modern," the study said.

Changes in intense hurricane activity should be better predicted with more study of the Eastern Pacific and West African climate patterns, it said.
Member Since: Mayıs 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
245. StoryOfTheCane Saat: 08:43 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
we've had a few curve balls thrown at us for sure
246. StoryOfTheCane Saat: 08:44 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
I dont believe any study done on hurricanes because we absolutely do not have enough data to support any claim
247. plywoodstatenative Saat: 08:45 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
if the season starts rocking we all know this will be called the Doom and Gloom blog
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248. nash28 Saat: 08:45 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
And to a guilty pleasure extent, those two seasons for many of us have us craving early starts and busy seasons because we have a passion for this.

Nothing wrong with it at all. Passion is what drives desire. Desire drives research. Research drives new technologies to learn more about hurricanes. New technology can possibly save more lives.
Member Since: Temmuz 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
249. nash28 Saat: 08:48 PM GMT Tarih: 29 Mayıs 2007    
You're right Plywood. There will be those who come on here only to trash those of us who want to provide as much information/education as we can, ESPECIALLY for those who may be in the path of a hurricane. We will continue to do what we do. It is what we love. It is for DAMN SURE what I love.

And, with Aaron's new system, those assclowns will be history shortly after their post:-)
Member Since: Temmuz 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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