Disturbance 90L brings heavy rain to Puerto Rico; major pollution in California
A surface low pressure system (90L) just east of Puerto Rico is moving to the west at 5-10 mph. This low is entangled with an upper-level low pressure system that is bringing about 30 knots of wind shear, so no development is likely today. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain hitting the islands and surrounding waters, but these bands are not well-organized. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the northeast of the low's center of circulation, and high wind shear is keeping this thunderstorm activity disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 90L.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 90L. Image credit: NOAA.
The surface low is expected to separate from the upper level low tonight and move west-southwest or southwest across Puerto Rico, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flooding to the island. Recent rains have left large areas of interior and western Puerto Rico at or near saturation, and mudslides were reported yesterday in Utuado. Flooding problems and mudslides are likely across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Friday and Saturday, and this is shaping up to be the most significant rain event of the fall wet season thus far for Puerto Rico.
On Friday and Saturday, 90L will move westward along or just south of Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, and possible mudslides to that island. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that wind shear will drop to 10-20 knots by Friday night, which may allow some slow development of the disturbance if the center remains over water. The GFS model keeps wind shear 20-30 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. By Saturday, the storm will near Jamaica, and the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict a tropical depression will form by Sunday. Steering currents grow weak on Monday, and the storm could stall out for many days in the Western Caribbean, in an area of low wind shear and high heat content waters. This may allow the system to intensify into a hurricane. The eventual fate of this system is highly uncertain, since steering currents will be so weak. Those of you planning to travel to the Western Caribbean next week should keep a close watch on this system. NHC has not scheduled any flights into 90L yet.
It is possible that wind shear and passage over the islands will sufficiently disrupt this disturbance so that it does not develop. However, surface pressures have fallen 2-3 mb over most of the Western Caribbean the past two days, and there is a good chance that a new area of disturbed weather will develop. One such disturbance formed yesterday south of Haiti, but has since dissipated. Unsettled rainy weather can be expected to affect much of the Western Caribbean over the coming week.
California's fires
Surface maps show that the high pressure system that brought this week's strong Santa Ana winds to Southern California has now moved east and is over Colorado. The Santa Ana winds have ceased over California, and only light winds with afternoon sea breezes are expected today and for the next seven days. No precipitation is expected for at least the next week. The combination of light winds and lack of rain will make for a serious air pollution hazard in the region, until the fires are extinguished. There is still plenty of smoke over the ocean waters (Figure 2) that will get blown back over land by afternoon sea breezes over the next week.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image at 1:45 pm PDT Wednesday October 24, showing a huge area of smoke over the Pacific Ocean. Some of this smoke is being blown northward (top of image), and is expected to move over northern California and northern Nevada over next two days. This northward-moving smoke is being lifted by the flow around an approaching low pressure system, and is not expected to affect air quality near the surface. However, the smoke just offshore San Diego and Los Angeles will remain near the surface, and some of it will be pushed back over land by afternoon sea breezes. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
with all the smoke in the air the moon last night was looking like holloween.
Reader Comments
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Max winds are 32knts on the doppler too.
NEXRAD Radar
San Juan Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Link
(I love the picture of the California moon...so sorry for the folks there.)
-------
Luiz Munoz International Airport
Lat: 18.43 N Lon: 66 W Elev: 9 ft
Last Update on Oct 25, 10:56 pm AST
Light Rain
79°F
(26°C)
Humidity: 85 %
Wind Speed: NE 13 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1007.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 74°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 83°F (28°C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
you live in the same area lol
Link
catch up with you all tomorrow
good night
You caught me on the way out LOL
90L has some obstacles to overcome in the short term. Shear and proximity to land.
If shear relaxes enough to allow the system to become vertically stacked AND it does not run aground on PR and Hispaniola then we may well see this become a TD and a storm. It is too soon to speculate on intensity as this will depend on numerous as yet undetermined factors.
Steering is forecast to be weak in the West/Central Caribbean and if it hangs around for several days in favourable conditions it could become a lot stronger than I currently expect.
Shear has not stayed low for long this season other than when Dean and Felix came by and I do not believe this pattern will change now.
This one could be a S Fla system though so keep an eye on it. A hurricane is certainly not out of the question
607. rareaire 9:33 PM CDT on October 25, 2007
yung uns, your welcome here no one says your not. but post info as it pertains to tropics. Stating its not gonna develop or its a dead storm or 10% chance of development etc... If you have that opinion then simply back it up with your research and we can debate it. Thats all the others have said. Age is irrelevent here. Im old and know little about the tropics but I enjoy those on here that do.
No "intuition" or "gut feel" allowed here!
sorry everyone but I don't see 90L developing at all I see it going poof and then thats it for the rest of the tropical season
i 2nd that
RIP 90L RIP 90L RIP 90L do i have to keep saying it LOL
ty we have to take this invest seriously
sure we do NOT
Taz why do you think 90L will go poof it has a lot of model support inmo
this be come there is a lot of models that support 90L dos not mean it will be come a TD or TS 90L is RIP
How are the fires around you today, Taz ??
True, BtnTx.
How are the fires around you today, Taz ??
the fire are down in S ca but the good news is that they are being put out one by one
I THINK 90L WILL BE TD BY 5 PM TOMORROW OR MAY BE BEFORE
huh? no it wont
See? I had hinted to you a few weeks back that perhaps a global circulation pattern where conditions were less favorable for tropical cyclogenesis was occuring. I never thought 2007 would be like 1977 in terms of ACE, but that does appear to be the case.
That's his opinion, Taz. Everyone has the right to have one. He may be wrong, you may be wrong, we don't know.
Personally, I think it will develop, but then I also think it will only last 2 days if it does.
Thanks Jeff for your attention here... NHC barely mentions this... If I were on my boat in the Sonda de Vieques right now, based on their forecast, it'd be damn uncomfortable.
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (T0720)
23.5N 131.4E - 35 kts 998 hPa
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
=============================
At 12:00 pm JST, Tropical Storm Faxai (T0720) maintained its 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots moving north-northwest at 15 knots.
expected sustained winds 0300z 27Oct is 50 knots
Gale Warning Area
=================
100 NM from the center of the cyclone
PAGASA
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
=============================
The active low pressure area over the Philippine Sea has intensified into a Tropical Depression and was named "JUANING" however, it will not affect any part of the country.
Maximum sustained winds 30 knots
Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan)
Tropical Storm Faxai
0000UTC 26 October 2007
Center Location 23.0N 131.6E
Movement NORTH
Minimum Pressure 998hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 35kts
Radius of 30 kts 100km
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
=============================
At 0:00am UTC Tropical Depression Twenty (Faxai) has 1 min sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The depression is located 275 NM southeast of Naha, Okinawa moving north-northwest at 18 knots.
significant wave height associated with Faxai is 12 feet.
6 Months ago I went out on a long limb, and said the Atlantic hurricane season would prove to be a dead one. I got a lot of stick for that, because I could not show " scientific data " to back up my idea.
I still have no scientific data, but I do have a fair amount of knowlege and experience from watching and SEEING what the weather is doing, over the past 40 years or so that I have been interested ( I'm 59 ).
The effects of the SAL on Trop. Atl. weather is not well understood, and my own " gut feeling " is that it is playing a huge role in the Atlantic weather. Cant account for Pacific weather though, or can it ?
Also, we are not taking into account major effects such as reduced Arctic ice, warmer European weather ect etc etc.
We live, we learn. Sometimes.......
Simply put, I think it's safe to say that although this year has a moderate La Nina there is a global circulation pattern similar to 1977 taking place. Has nothing to do with SAL, IMO.
.
Link
The cmc is crazy
from the navt site
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