Hurricane Katrina--Looking Back to Look Ahead
I'm in New Orleans this week for the 88th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, the world's largest gathering of meteorologists. This year's meeting has a special focus on Hurricane Katrina. Yesterday's session: "Hurricane Katrina--Looking Back to Look Ahead" sought to review what happened during Katrina with an aim to improve our ability to prepare for the inevitable next "Big One". The keynote speaker was former National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield. He took the audience back through those painful days in late August 2005 as Katrina exploded into one of the most intense hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico, forever altering the lives of those caught in its path.
Katrina could have been much worse
Max reviewed the forecasts issued by the NHC for Katrina, showing how these predictions gave a full 2 1/2 days for New Orleans and Mississippi to prepare for the onslaught of a major hurricane. "I don't want people to think we're going to be able to do that well all the time," he said. "One of these days, people will go to bed with a Category 1 hurricane expected to hit the next day, and wake up to a Katrina or an Andrew. That will be a catastrophe." Max stressed the importance of not focusing on the skinny black line showing the forecast track of a storm--pay attention instead to the cone of possible landfall locations. Better communication and education to the public on hurricane dangers are needed, and he encouraged all coastal residents to participate in National Hurricane Preparedness Week, May 25-31 of this year.
Figure 1. The exhibit hall from the 2008 meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans.
How do we change the outcome?
Max showed that while errors in hurricane track forecasts have improved a factor of two in the past 15 years, and are now down to 55 miles for a 24-hour forecast, forecasts of intensity have not improved at all. In fact, the intensity forecasts for 2007 were worse than those of 2005 and 2006. Part of the credit for the improvement in track forecasts goes to a $1 million/year research project called the Joint Hurricane Test-bed--a project former NHC director Bill Proenza called attention to when it received budget cuts. An increase in funding for this program, as well as other hurricane research efforts, are needed to help improve hurricane intensity forecasts, Max urged.
Another way to change the outcome would be through the adoption of improved building codes. Adoption of the tough South Florida building codes all along the coast would save lives and cut down on insurance pay-outs. Max brought up the analogy of a airplane crashing due to a defect in manufacture. When investigators find the cause of the defect, immediate steps are taken to ensure that no airplane is ever built again with that defect. Why, then, do we continue to build houses with known defects? He advocated the formation of a National Disaster Review Board to analyze and adopt new building codes for the coast. This board would consist of meteorologists, emergency managers, and representatives from the insurance and building industries.
Final thoughts on being in New Orleans
Max recounted his own sobering tour of the damaged neighborhoods still devastated more than two years after Katrina. My own experience here was also sobering, as this is my first visit since the hurricane. It felt eerie to stalk the halls of the Convention Center, the site of so much pain and suffering in the aftermath of the storm. I was very conscious of being in the bottom of a bowl everywhere I went within the city, and the damaged, shuttered buildings were a constant reminder that the Gulf of Mexico lay at our doorstep--and would someday send another "Big One" to challenge the city's defenses. Yet many of the people I met have adapted to the post-Katrina life with an admirable stoicism. "They don't call New Orleans the Big Easy for nothing", one cab driver told me. "Life is still good and laid-back here".
Jeff Masters
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Tropical Storm Olga
(AL172007)
11 – 12 December 2007
Michelle Mainelli
National Hurricane Center
22 January 2008
Olga was a short-lived out of season tropical storm that produced torrential rains,
flooding, and loss of life across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Puerto Rico.
Olga’s remnants continued across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico before being absorbed by a cold front over central Florida.
a. Synoptic History
Olga’s genesis resulted from the interaction of an upper-level low with a low-level
trough over the central Atlantic Ocean. Early on 6 December, a broad upper-level low
developed over the east-central Atlantic along with an associated low-level trough that stretched
along 35oW between 20oN and 30oN. These features moved westward, in tandem, at 15-20 kt
uneventfully during the next couple of days. Late on 8 December, shower and thunderstorm
activity developed in the vicinity of the upper-level low and surface trough. By 10 December, a
broad area of surface low pressure formed about 350 n mi east of Puerto Rico, and although
thunderstorm activity remained disorganized at that time, the low produced gale force winds to
the north of the center. Around 0000 UTC 11 December, satellite imagery and radar data from
San Juan, Puerto Rico WSR-88D and surface observations over the Virgin Islands indicated that
the system developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficiently organized convection
relatively close to the center for the system to be designated as a subtropical storm about 50 n mi
east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Because the surface low was still associated with a cold low aloft,
the system is considered to be subtropical at this time. In addition, the cyclone had radius of
maximum winds of about 175 n mi, which is typical of subtropical cyclones. The “best track”
chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown
in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.
Under the influence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, Olga moved westward
along the northern coast of Puerto Rico on 11 December and made landfall along the north
central coast of Puerto Rico around 0700 UTC. Later that day, satellite imagery indicated that
shower and thunderstorm activity increased near the center, and surface observations along with
surface wind data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) suggested that the radius of
maximum winds had decreased. By 1800 UTC 11 December, Olga became a tropical storm by
the time it made landfall just south of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic with a peak
intensity of 50 kt. Despite the mountainous terrain, Olga maintained its peak intensity for about
12 h while moving across eastern Hispaniola, with the strongest winds remaining offshore in the
area of deepest convection. Olga finally weakened over central Hispaniola, and by the time the
cyclone emerged over the Windward Passage around 1200 UTC 12 December the intensity had
decreased to 35 kt. Olga became a tropical depression six hours later and degenerated into a
remnant low the next day just north of Jamaica.
2
The remnant low continued westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea during
the next couple of days. By 15 December, the non-convective low moved northwestward and
northward around the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Later that day and early on
16 December, the remnants of Olga accelerated northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
ahead of an approaching cold front, producing somewhat organized thunderstorm activity.
Satellite imagery and radar data from Tampa, Florida suggested that a small circulation crossed
the west-central coast of Florida just north of Tampa around 1000 UTC 16 December. During
that time, Olga’s remnants interacted with an intense squall line that stretched across north
central Florida. While post-analysis does not indicate that redevelopment into a tropical cyclone
occurred, the remnants of Olga in conjunction with the cold front and pre-frontal squall line
produced sustained winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force in Clearwater
Beach, Florida. Within two hours of Olga’s remnants reaching the west central coast of Florida,
the remnants were absorbed by the cold front.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Olga (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Hebert-Poteat and Dvorak
technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the
Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as well as flight-level and Stepped Frequency Microwave
Radiometer (SFMR) surface observations from one mission of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron of the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command. Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA
polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA
Aqua, the NASA QuikSCAT, the Department of Defense WindSat, ASCAT, and Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking Olga.
Conventional land-based surface observations, buoys, and National Weather Service Doppler
radar data were helpful in tracking the path of Olga.
The estimated 50 kt peak intensity of Olga while it was making landfall over the
Dominican Republic early on 12 December is based on a blend of the surface-adjusted flightlevel
winds and SFMR data from U.S. Air Force aircraft. Peak flight-level winds measured by
the plane were 55 kt, corresponding to 44 kt at the surface. There was an SFMR surface report
of 54 kt, but this measurement was determined to be too high due to shoaling along the coast. A
couple of SFMR measurements, however, indicated surface winds around 47 kt prior to the
aircraft reaching the shallow waters just north of the Dominican Republic.
The primary impact of Olga was the heavy rainfall that affected portions of Puerto Rico
and the island of Hispaniola. Maximum rainfall totals across the region ranged from around 11
inches in central Puerto Rico to over 15 inches in the Dominican Republic. Figure 4 shows the
rainfall distribution across Puerto Rico. Tropical storm force winds were present north of the
center during both the subtropical and tropical stages of Olga. While several ship reports from
11 – 12 December across the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean measured tropical storm force winds,
these winds were due to a strong environmental pressure gradient and were not directly
associated with the circulation of Olga. Table 2 provides a summary of selected ship
observations that reported sustained winds of tropical storm force directly associated with Olga,
and Table 3 provides a summary of rainfall totals.
3
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Due primarily to torrential rainfall, mudslides, and flooding of the Yaque River in the
Dominican Republic, at least 37 deaths are directly associated with Olga in that country. In
addition, 2 deaths in Haiti and 1 death in Puerto Rico were reported in association with Olga.
Olga’s impact was unusually severe due to the grounds having been previously saturated from
the passage of Tropical Storm Noel at the end of October. News reports indicate that almost
12,000 homes were damaged, including 370 that were completely destroyed, which caused more
than 60,000 people to be displaced. During the time when Olga’s remnants moved rapidly
across Florida, a tornado touched down in central Florida in Pasco County causing damage to
several buildings including a County Fire Station and the Pasco County Jail.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Olga developed outside of the official hurricane season and Tropical Weather Outlook
(TWO) statements were not being routinely generated; however, Special Tropical Disturbance
Statements (DSA) were issued beginning at 2200 UTC 9 December, about 26 hours prior to
genesis. In total, six DSAs were disseminated by NHC prior to the first advisory issuance and all
statements indicated that tropical or subtropical cyclone formation could occur.
A verification of NHC official and guidance model track forecasts can be found in Table
4. Since Olga was a short-lived cyclone, very few forecasts verified. The number of forecasts
ranged from six at 12 h to two at 36 h. The average official track errors for Olga were 47, 61, and
52 n mi for the 12, 24, and 36 h forecasts, respectively. These errors are close to the average
long-term official track errors.
Average NHC official intensity errors were 7, 9, and 5 kt for the 12, 24, and 36 h
forecasts, respectively (Table 5). For comparison, the average long-term official intensity errors
are 6, 10, and 12 kt, respectively. The official intensity forecast errors were below or near the
average long-term errors at each forecast time.
Due to the close proximity of Olga’s genesis to Hispaniola, tropical storm warnings and
watches were issued in the first advisory early on 11 December. Even though the center of Olga
moved across northwestern Puerto Rico, watches and warnings were not necessary for the island
as the tropical storm force winds were confined to the north of the center and rainfall was the
primary threat. Table 6 provides a summary of the watches and warnings issued in association
with Olga.
e. Acknowledgements:
Observations from the Dominican Republic were provided by the Dominican Republic
Meteorological Office. Lixion Avila and Daniel Brown from NHC, Roham Abtahi from
WFO/SJU, and David Roth from HPC assisted in the compilation of the observation table. Colin
McAdie (NHC) provided access to and analysis of archived WSR-88D radar data from the WFO
4
in Tampa, Florida. Roger Edwards (SPC) and Jiann-Gwo Jiing (NHC) provided valuable insight
of the remnants of Olga as it moved across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across Florida. I
would also like to thank my colleagues at NHC for their valuable suggestions to this report
Thank you for the update, How was the Gumbo?
Thanks for updating from the conference. It's important that folks remember what can happen when a natural disaster is combined with engineering ineptitude and politics.
Thanks Dr. Mastes. Like Storm I am looking for some additional articles.
It was bad YES!!!! but lets MOVE ON!!!!
This is the first time I have heard of a storm streaking.
When you say the storm is moving NEWD, what do you mean?
Study: Warming may cut US hurricane hits
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science WriterTue Jan 22, 8:50 PM ET
Global warming could reduce how many hurricanes hit the United States, according to a new federal study that clashes with other research. The new study is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how man-made global warming may affect the intensity and number of hurricanes.
In it, researchers link warming waters, especially in the Indian and Pacific oceans, to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States. Wind shear %u2014 a change in wind speed or direction %u2014 makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen and stay alive.
So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Miami Lab and the University of Miami.
With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 mph, weakening storm formation, said study author Chunzai Wang, a research oceanographer at NOAA. Winds forming over the Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like El Nino does, he said.
Wang said he based his study on observations instead of computer models and records of landfall hurricanes through more than 100 years.
His study is to be published Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters.
Critics say Wang's study is based on poor data that was rejected by scientists on the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They said that at times only one in 10 North Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. coast and the data reflect only a small percentage of storms around the globe.
Hurricanes hitting land "are not a reliable record" for how hurricanes have changed, said Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
Trenberth is among those on the other side of a growing debate over global warming and hurricanes. Each side uses different sets of data and focus on different details.
One group of climate scientists has linked increases in the strongest hurricanes %u2014 just those with winds greater than 130 mph %u2014 in the past 35 years to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said "more likely than not," manmade global warming has already increased the frequency of the most intense storms.
But hurricane researchers, especially scientists at NOAA's Miami Lab, have argued that the long-term data for all hurricanes show no such trend. And Wang's new research suggests just the opposite of the view that more intense hurricanes result from global warming. The Miami faction points to a statement by an international workshop on tropical cyclones that says "no firm conclusion can be made on this point."
Former National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said regardless of which side turns out to be right, it only takes one storm to be deadly. So the key for residents of hurricane-prone areas, he said, is to be prepared for a storm "no matter what."
Atlantic Hurricanes
no offense, Katrina was bad; but when can we get the final word on it and close the grave on it.
It was bad YES!!!! but lets MOVE ON!!!!
I hate to say it but Katrina will most likely still be brought up 20 years from now...just like 9/11 and all the other events that affected the US drastically.
Literally here in southern Louisiana we have a new type of time "before Katrina" and "after Katrina". I have found myself more often than not referring to events as before and after the storm; and that's events that arent even related to the storm itself! lol
So really in your life time (and mine) we can expect to hear about it a good bit more. That is of course assuming that something worse doesnt happen...lets hope not!
Recovery is still going on, a whole bunch of it actually...unfortunately.
-Heavy Rains continue across Australia but help ease droughts...
Tropical Disturbance Summary 1800z 23Jan
=======================================
An area of convection (97S) located near 10.5S 48.7E or 510 NM north of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Animated Multispectral Satellite Imagery reveals a broad, developing low level circulation center with flaring deep convection on the southwest periphery. Quikscat Image shows broad troughing. SSMI Image also shows evidence of this troughing and some convective banding from the east development is being hampered by low to moderate vertical wind shear, but the disturbance is forecasted to move into a more favorable environment over the next 24-28 hours.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 mb. Since the low level circulation center is broad, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone wtihin the next 24 hours is POOR.
Sheri
Has anyone heard how this Hurricane Season might be? Will it be a slow one or busy? I figure there not talking about anything yet but I just didn't know if anyone knew anything.
Sheri
Sheri, it does not matter what they think will happen. It has been proven that their guesses are no better than what you might think will happen. A dart board is just as accurate as the experts.
2050 BOYNTON BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2653 8009 PUBLIC REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WEST OF I-95 AND BOYNTON BEACH BLVD. REPORT RELAYED TO BOYNTON BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. (MFL)
Hello sheri....
Long time dont speak but from everything ive looked at until this point signs point to an active season now were they form and track is something thats impossible to know as steering patterns are very hard to figure 2 weeks out.My best advice is sit back and enjoy the long off season and before you know it will be that time once again.
www.AdriansWeather.com
PS!Remember even a slow season can be bad all it takes is one system over your community.
Very interesting article put out today as Global warming could reduce the possibility of tropical cyclone landfalls in the united states.Iam not a big fan of this global warming stuff but theres a few questions that came to my mind came after reading this article.For example could warmer sea surface temps somehow increase vertical windshear?Alot of factors are in play for a tropical cyclone to flurish,many questions indeed which iam not going to attempt to answer right now.The odds in my opinion favor a busy year landfall wise for the U.S. but it can go either way hopefully we'll have another quite one.
Complete Article Here
Abstract
what made Katrina queen of all Atlantic hurricanes is that she never had a good side. Most hurricanes have some sliver lining...some calm side, some exception. Katrina, however made landfall where the north winds to the west of the storm push the lake into the city and the south winds push Gulf of Mexico onto the Mississippi coast to the east of the storm. Katrina actually used the saying "Hurricanes kill most people by flooding not winds*." Sadly, no one could escape her wrath.
* Andrew Cat 5 winds VS Katrina Storm Surge
It would be nice to know what you, and others that you have talked to while here in the city, think about the city after this meeting is over.
Lunatic Wind
By: William Price Fox
about hurricane Hugo?
POSITION FAIR.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 90 AND 120 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE, WITH 35 TO 40 KNOTS UPTO 300 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE.
That's a bit of a farfetched statement, considering how far away June is. I'm not even going to attempt to forecast what I think will happen until May, when we'll have a general idea of things.
Sheri
It would be nice to know what you, and others that you have talked to while here in the city, think about the city after this meeting is over.
Um, I have a hard time believing NOLA has recovered from Katrina, considering it has only been two years. And the city may be safe to come back to now, but it's always like that until a big one comes by and threatens.
As Max said, it only takes one.
Tropical Disturbance Summary 0230z 24Jan
=======================================
An area of convection (97S) located near 10.8S 47.1E or 490 NM north of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Animated infrared satellite imagery continues to display a broad, developing low level circulation center with flaring deep convection on the southwest periphery. A Quikscat image shows broad troughing. A AMSU-B image also shows evidence of this troughing and some convective banding from the east. Development continues to be hampered by low to moderate vertical wind shear, but the disturbance is forecast to move into a more favorable environment over the next 24-48 hours.
maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 mb. SInce the LLCC is broad, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains POOR.
System #2
------
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary 0230z 24Jan
========================================
An area of convection (98S) located near 9.2S 67.0E or 340 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared and water vapor satellite imagery depicts a developing low level circulation center with flaring deep convection near the center. Prior Quikscat Images depicts a broad low level circulation. AMSR-E image shows weak convective banding beginning to form over the northwestern periphery of the circulation.
Upper level analysis depicts low to moderate vertical wind shear and good upper level diffluence. Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 mb. Since the low level circulation center is broad and remains disorganized, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
If I lived in an area that is under sea level and had more than 4 feet of water in my house I probably would not go back either.
This was interesting, good rain drop research too~ Scientists Produce Energy From Rain
Other finalists for the highly visible job include Richard Knabb, one of six senior hurricane specialists at the center, and Charles ''Chip'' Guard, a veteran government meteorologist and tropical weather specialist in Guam
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