Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tornado kills four Boy Scouts in Iowa
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, Saat: 01:10 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008 +2
Tragedy struck a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa last night, when a tornado swept through, killing four Boy Scouts and injuring at least 48 people. A tornado warning was issued by the National Weather Service 12 minutes before the tornado hit the camp at 6:35 pm CDT, but it appears the campers never heard the sirens, either because the sirens were too far away from the remote camp, or because the storm caused a power outage in the nearest town of Blencoe, which silenced that town's tornado siren.

Tornadoes also hit southern Minnesota, eastern Kansas, and eastern Nebraska yesterday, and the Storm Prediction Center recorded 52 tornado reports. A tornado caused major damage in Manhattan and Kansas State University, tossing cars and destroying several businesses. A half-mile wide tornado hit the town of Chapman, destroying 60 homes and killing one person. Another person died in a mobile home in the Jackson County town of Soldier. Yesterday's deaths bring this season's tornado death toll up to 118--the most since 1998, when 130 people were killed.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) for the June 1, 2008 tornado that hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in western Iowa. The tornado was embedded in a line of severe thunderstorms that swept through the state, and did not exhibit the classic hook-shaped echo one commonly sees in tornadoes. The most dangerous tornadoes commonly show a hook echo and tend to be spawned by "discrete supercells"--isolated thunderstorms that are not embedded in a solid line of thunderstorms.

Tornado activity forecast
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Slight" risk of severe weather across the Midwest today, from Michigan to Oklahoma. We can expect a few more tornadoes today in the affected region, although probably not as many twisters as were reported in yesterday's outbreak. The "Slight" risk of severe weather continues Friday across the Midwest, then shifts to the East Coast by Saturday.

Tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico between the Florida Keys and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The thunderstorm activity is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is moving northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. I'm not expecting this to develop, but we should keep an eye on it. None of the computer models are forecasting development of a tropical depression in the Atlantic in the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters
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Categories: Tornado
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201. txalwaysprepared Saat: 04:56 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
IKE I would like that blob to go a little farther west and come to the Houston area. I would WELCOME the rain, but nothing too bad!
Member Since: Ağustos 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
202. KrazyKaneLove Saat: 04:57 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
The name Bertha scares me...
Member Since: Eylül 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
203. presslord Saat: 04:59 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
06/12/2008 1035 am

Folly Beach, Charleston County (SC).

Water spout, reported by Park/Forest srvc.

Water spout reported 1 mile east of Folly Beach County park.
Member Since: Ağustos 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10405
204. TheWeatherMan504 Saat: 04:59 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
200. anvilhead 4:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
it is a ULL, look at the HDW-HIGH on the sattelite


No, Its a tropical wave. The ull is just enhanceing thunderstorm activity with the wave.
Member Since: Mayıs 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1041
205. IKE Saat: 05:04 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
199. leftovers 11:56 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Is that the same system moving through the gulf or two on that gfs.


I think it's 2 different systems.
Member Since: Haziran 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
206. IKE Saat: 05:04 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
201. txalwaysprepared 11:56 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
IKE I would like that blob to go a little farther west and come to the Houston area. I would WELCOME the rain, but nothing too bad!


You've got a good chance of rain Friday from it.
Member Since: Haziran 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
207. pottery Saat: 05:05 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
I cannot believe that a warning system became disabled because weather caused an electrical failure. DUH
Is a weather warning system not supposed to have a back-up power supply? DUUUUHHHHH ??!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Ekim 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866
208. Drakoen Saat: 05:09 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Looks like the GFS 12z run is being delayed. Always happen when I want to see a particular run lol.
Member Since: Ekim 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
209. Cavin Rawlins Saat: 05:10 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Corrected the update

Showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico is assoicated with surface speed convergence enhanced by upper divergent flow east of an upper level circulation in the W Gulf. The lastest visible imagery and surface observations showed a mid-level circulation associated with this feature moving off towards the north near 24N/85W. Conditions currently are only marginally for development but should improve as the system moves towards the north over the next 24 hrs. It will be monitored for signs of development.
Member Since: Temmuz 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
210. STORMTTOP Saat: 05:11 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
My, the GOM does bear watching. Gto some nive little pops out there.
Oh noooez, I admired the structure! Get the pitchforks!
211. presslord Saat: 05:11 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Drak...rumor has it we may get wet...If you have anything to do with it.....Thanks!!!!!!!!
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212. 69Viking Saat: 05:12 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
207. pottery

No kidding, who designed that system?
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213. Drakoen Saat: 05:13 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
211. presslord 5:11 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Drak...rumor has it we may get wet...If you have anything to do with it.....Thanks!!!!!!!!


???
Member Since: Ekim 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
214. Floodman Saat: 05:15 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
All hail Drak, rain bringer!

Damn, dude, you're good!
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215. presslord Saat: 05:15 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
from WU...

Through 3 PM...isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to affect portions of southeast South Carolina. Majority of the activity is east of Interstate 95. Rainfall totals will reach up to a quarter an inch with higher totals in heavy downpours. However...most areas will remain dry.
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216. Drakoen Saat: 05:16 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
What did I do? I'm confused...
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217. Floodman Saat: 05:16 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
GFS 12Z run is in...
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218. Floodman Saat: 05:19 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Press feels, for whatever reason, that you may (or may not) have had something to do with a bit of precipitational good luck that he may (or may not) experience in the near future...he was expressing his gratitude for any influence you may or may not have had in this watery good fortune...

I'm practicing for my new career in politics...how am I doing?
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219. presslord Saat: 05:20 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
uh....what flood said....
Member Since: Ağustos 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10405
220. Floodman Saat: 05:21 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Obfuscation...all is obfuscation...
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221. AWeatherLover Saat: 05:21 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Can anyone update me on the 12z run? I can't look at it now from my phone. TIA!
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222. Drakoen Saat: 05:21 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
218. Floodman 5:19 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Press feels, for whatever reason, that you may (or may not) have had something to do with a bit of precipitational good luck that he may (or may not) experience in the near future...he was expressing his gratitude for any influence you may or may not have had in this watery good fortune...


LOL ok I got it.
Member Since: Ekim 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
223. 69Viking Saat: 05:22 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
218. Floodman

Run as an Independent this year and I'll vote for you!
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224. Drakoen Saat: 05:24 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
12z GFS dropped the CATL system. GFS can't stay consistent...
Member Since: Ekim 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012
225. presslord Saat: 05:25 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
I'm just doing whatever I can to appease the rain gods....
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226. groundswell Saat: 05:25 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
GOM-gettin' a little sparky, not the best of conditions for sure, but there are possibilities..
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227. presslord Saat: 05:26 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
I've got a guy outside right now pressure washing my office bldg...am finding it difficult not to walk out there and let him hose me down....
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228. msphar Saat: 05:26 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Uh, who put the ITCZ back in sleep mode ...?
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229. RMM34667 Saat: 05:26 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
I need a little of that "precipitational good luck".. Requesting heavy downpours in Tampa. Preferably between 4-6pm.. Enough to soak the field and make it unuseable for two hours or so.

Have a softball game at 7pm and not enough females to play. Need a rainout instead of forefiet. (Not that it really matters, we are pretty bad - we'll lose anyway). But we have pride and would rather lose by our *uckines.

Member Since: Eylül 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
230. rainraingoaway Saat: 05:27 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Good afternoon, all.

So, so sad about the Boy Scout Camp. Prayers for all involved.

GOM is looking interesting. Would definately love the rain...(Just dont wash out my 5 yr old's first dance recital Saturday!)

Will stay tuned!
Member Since: Ağustos 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
231. Floodman Saat: 05:28 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
223. 69Viking

LOL...there's a job I sure don't want...
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232. Floodman Saat: 05:30 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
229. RMM34667

*uckines

Never heard that one before...good, AND original
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233. smmcdavid Saat: 05:30 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Is there a "blob" coming to get me yet? LOL
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234. weatherfromFlorida Saat: 05:32 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
197. your seriously going to listen to the weather channel? I go there for a laugh, not weather info.
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235. KarenRei Saat: 05:32 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Just a note for Jeff and others: while the tornado deaths were tragic, this affected a tiny area of Iowa. Meanwhile, for us here in the rest of Iowa, our cities are drowning. The tornadoes may be hogging the spotlight, but the real issue is the floods. In Cedar Rapids, two of the hospitals just lost power, and they're starting to transfer patients to my hospital in Iowa City (can we seriously house that many? It's going to be crazy here). But the forecast for river rise keeps going up; there's no way that the main links between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City are going to stay open through this. Not only are families going to be cut off, but a lot of people live in one city and work in the other. Downtown Cedar Rapids is shut down except for emergency workers. Iowa City has the most rise still to go, another six feet; we won't crest until the middle of next week. Our in-town bridges are still open (unlike almost all of Cedar Rapids' bridges, including one railroad bridge that completely collapsed into the river, taking loaded train cars with it and possibly damming the flow somewhat), but that won't last. I burned myself out sandbagging, and can only hope that others are volunteering to take up the slack. Our "hundred year flood" saw the river peak out at 28.5 feet. The forecast is for 33 feet. I have serious doubts that they've been building the sandbag levees high enough for that. Both sandbags and sand are running low. The biggest problem with the sand is that as the roads flood, it gets harder to get it from the sand pits.

This flooding is a huge disaster up here, and I hope people elsewhere realize the magnitude. Tornadoes may be dramatic, but they're not the big story.

I'd post some pictures, except that my home has lost internet access, so I can't connect to my home computer from here to get them.
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236. 69Viking Saat: 05:33 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
233. smmcdavid

No, send it Florida way!
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237. tropicfreak Saat: 05:35 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    


I think looking at it in motion there's a slight rotation.
Member Since: Eylül 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612
238. KarenRei Saat: 05:35 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
To clarify this line:

"Our "hundred year flood" saw the river peak out at 28.5 feet."

That was the massive midwest flooding of 1993. Our river is projected to crest 4 1/2 feet higher than that. Right now, we're only 1 1/4 feet below that mark.

Member Since: Eylül 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 934
239. Patrap Saat: 05:36 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
KarenRei.,best of care and our thoughts are with you.
Are you getting all the relief and help required for the task at the Hospital?
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240. 69Viking Saat: 05:39 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
235. KarenRei

I feel you Karen but the loss of life to 4 young boys out weighs any damage to property or inability to get between two towns. It's not the Tornado that's the big story, it's the fact 4 boys died because of it. The flooding is serious. I'm not trying to take away from that, we can only pray that the flooding doesn't cause any loss of life if it hasn't already.
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242. smmcdavid Saat: 05:41 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Karen, I know it must be horrible... be safe and good luck. Please keep us informed.
Member Since: Eylül 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
243. 69Viking Saat: 05:45 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
241. STORMTTOP

Go away you troll.
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245. moonlightcowboy Saat: 05:49 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
GOM IR loop

Nice convection popping over the loop current area, possible low level rotation. Haven't looked at shear or anything else.
Member Since: Temmuz 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28210
246. OUSHAWN Saat: 05:51 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
I'm starting to focus a little bit more with what is happening in the BOC than in the central GOM...where did that come from?
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247. KarenRei Saat: 05:52 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
"I feel you Karen but the loss of life to 4 young boys out weighs any damage to property or inability to get between two towns."

What do you think happens when hospitals lose power? And inability to get between towns means that people who work at the hospital can't get there. And yes, the midwest flooding has already directly taken seven lives -- not in our city, but in others. But it's the scale of the damage that's the real issue.

The patients haven't started showing up yet, but the hospital sent out an alert to try to discharge as many patients who don't need to be here as possible. I work in Psychiatry in a lab doing software development, so I'm not going to be directly dealing with the mess, but the rest of the place will.
Member Since: Eylül 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 934
248. OUSHAWN Saat: 05:52 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
Wait a minute...is the BOC where the ULL is?
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249. myway Saat: 05:52 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
69viking
240
243

Well put.
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251. myway Saat: 05:55 PM GMT Tarih: 12 Haziran 2008    
stormttop or chicken little?
makes me wonder
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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