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axpz20 knhc 240952
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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu may 24 2012
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...Special feature...
Hurricane Bud at 14.7n 107.6w as of 24/0900 UTC moving N at 6
kt. Bud developed an eye feature earlier this morning and
Dvorak estimates yielded sustained 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt
wind speeds. Central pres fell quickly to 980 mb as cyclone
turned into a more northerly track. Model guidance has now
aligned track and timing into a more cohesive solution bringing
Bud very close to the coast of Mexico just S of Cabo
Corrientes. Bud is expected to continue strengthening for the
next 24-30 hrs under marginally favorable SST and low wind
shear. After that time shear begins increasing and at that
point guidance differ significantly in intensity...track and
timing. While many models have Bud remain over water missing
land or making it inland as a much weakened system...its
present strength and position warrants advisories for the coast
of Mexico. In addition to the cyclonic wind threat...even a
weakened Bud could bring significant rainfall over coastal
mountains to produce widespread flooding. See latest tropical
cyclone advisory wtpz22/tcmep2 knhc for further details on
Hurricane Bud.
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...
no identifiable monsoon trough noted. ITCZ axis from 11n110w to
08n118w to 07n131w to beyond 05n140w. No significant convection.
...Discussion...
very dry subsiding air mass noted over most of basin N of 20n
and also W of 120w. Most of moisture available is associated
with Hurricane Bud. Well structured anticyclonic outflow aloft
has allowed Bud to intensify and increase its convection as the
center slipped under cloud canopy and showed an eye feature
earlier this morning. Another anticyclone over northwestern
Caribbean advects abundant moisture into portions of Basin E of
100w.
Elsewhere at the lower levels...
high pres at 1034 mb NW of area has ridge extend se to 16n114w.
Ridge tightens gradient to prompt gale force winds along coast
of Southern California with fresh to strong breeze seeping as
far S as 25n. It also presses against ITCZ axis to the S with
fresh NE breeze N of 20n W of 130w. High pres center expected
to drift NW today and Fri diminishing winds by end of forecast
period.
NW swells originating from gale force winds just N of basin
spread S along Baja California coast with seas building to 14 ft
N of 28n E of 120w.
$$
Wally Barnes
